Abstract

MINISO Group Holding Limited will report fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on May 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with investor attention centered on revenue growth guidance, the shape of margins after last quarter’s one-off losses, and how adjusted profitability tracks the company’s latest positive profit indication.

Market Forecast

Based on market modeling and the company’s previous report, current-quarter projections point to revenue around RMB 5.57 billion, implying approximately 27.42% year-over-year growth, EBIT of about RMB 1.19 billion with an estimated 53.20% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS around RMB 2.04 per ADS. Separately, the company’s own positive indication for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 calls for revenue of RMB 5.68–5.73 billion (+28% to +29% year over year), adjusted net profit excluding foreign-exchange effects of RMB 0.62–0.64 billion (+7% to +10% year over year), period profit of RMB 1.23–1.25 billion (+195% to +200% year over year), and adjusted operating profit excluding FX of RMB 0.83–0.85 billion (+13% to +16% year over year); gross margin and adjusted EPS guidance were not provided. The main business remains anchored by the core MINISO brand, where performance is expected to align with the company’s revenue expansion trajectory and stable merchandise margins into the new fiscal year. The most promising segment is the TOP TOY brand, which contributed RMB 599.04 million last quarter; momentum is supported by ongoing category development and financing preparation activities, although segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the quarter ended December 31, 2025, MINISO Group Holding Limited delivered revenue of RMB 6.25 billion (+32.71% year over year), reported a gross profit margin of 46.39%, posted a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 142.00 million with a net profit margin of -2.26%, and achieved adjusted EPS of RMB 2.80 per ADS. A key financial highlight was strong top-line execution that exceeded market estimates despite the bottom-line being weighed by non-operating and one-time items that swung GAAP profit to a loss. By business, the core MINISO brand generated RMB 5.65 billion last quarter (approximately 90.41% of revenue), while TOP TOY contributed RMB 599.04 million; the company did not disclose segment-level year-over-year growth, but the group total expanded 32.71% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core MINISO brand: revenue scalability, merchandise margin, and operating discipline

The core MINISO brand remains the revenue engine, contributing RMB 5.65 billion in the previous quarter out of RMB 6.25 billion in total. For the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the company’s revenue indication of RMB 5.68–5.73 billion implies sustained demand and continued commercial execution at scale. Gross profit margin was 46.39% in the prior quarter; while no gross margin guide has been issued for the current period, the relationship between stable merchandise margins and operating leverage is likely to be in focus, given the sizable revenue base and the company’s emphasis on assortment breadth and refresh cadence. With revenue expected to grow around 28%–29% year over year per the company’s indication, the market will assess whether the core brand’s sales velocity and mix can support EBIT growth that is projected to outpace revenue on estimates. Another key lens for this quarter is the translation of revenue into adjusted profitability. The latest indication calls for adjusted net profit excluding FX of RMB 0.62–0.64 billion (+7% to +10% year over year), which is notably more modest than the headline period profit growth of +195% to +200%. This gap underscores that the quarter’s bottom line will reflect both underlying retail performance and non-operating items. Investors are therefore likely to parse adjusted results to gauge the sustainability of margin structure and operational efficiency. In that context, the company’s estimated EBIT of RMB 1.19 billion (+53.20% year over year) suggests meaningful operating momentum if realized, even as the adjusted net profit growth rate indicates a careful balance among merchandise margin, operating expense control, and one-offs. The composition of revenue across categories within the MINISO brand should remain a swing factor for margin variability, even if category-level disclosures are not provided. A tilt toward higher-margin SKUs typically supports gross profit, while broader customer acquisition and higher ticket dynamics can broaden operating leverage. As revenue scales, watch for signals on store economics and marketing efficiency embedded within the EBIT trajectory. The company’s positive indication combined with consensus-style modeling implies that, excluding outsized non-operating gains, the core brand’s operating profile remains intact into fiscal Q1, and that any variance to expectations will primarily be a function of merchandising outcomes and cost run-rate.

TOP TOY: emerging earnings contributor with optionality from capital plans

TOP TOY contributed RMB 599.04 million last quarter, representing roughly 9.58% of group revenue. While segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, recent communications highlight acceleration of capital plans for TOP TOY, including a renewed push toward a Hong Kong listing. This optionality matters for the current quarter’s stock narrative for two reasons: first, it supports perceptions of medium-term capital efficiency and brand monetization potential; second, it can catalyze incremental attention to the segment’s revenue quality and scalability, even if immediate profit flow-through remains measured relative to the core MINISO brand. For the March quarter, the company’s revenue indication does not break out TOP TOY specifically, but a sturdier group revenue trajectory typically provides a supportive backdrop for the segment. In practical terms, if the group delivers RMB 5.68–5.73 billion in revenue with adjusted net profit excluding FX of RMB 0.62–0.64 billion, a scenario in which TOP TOY maintains or modestly builds its revenue share could incrementally lift gross profit dollars, even if the segment’s margin mix differs from the core brand. The interaction between category mix, pricing, and marketing intensity will shape the contribution to adjusted results. While this quarter’s consolidated adjusted net profit growth guidance of +7% to +10% year over year signals prudent expectations, any disclosure that TOP TOY is growing faster than the group could be a positive surprise for sentiment. Importantly, the segment’s strategic trajectory—underscored by listing preparation—can create valuation tailwinds even absent immediate margin expansion, as investors may begin to underwrite a clearer earnings path and potential capital structure optimization. That said, for the purposes of the upcoming print, the near-term markers are straightforward: contribution to group revenue, merchandise margin resilience within the consolidated gross margin framework, and the absence of negative surprises in operating expenses. Within those guideposts, TOP TOY’s incremental revenue and gross profit dollars can still be meaningful to the consolidated P&L even if the headline conversation is dominated by the period profit uplift from non-operating gains.

Stock-price drivers this quarter: reconciliation of GAAP vs adjusted profit, capital actions, and guidance discipline

The most consequential driver for the share price into this print is the reconciliation of GAAP profit, adjusted profit, and the sustainability of each line. The company indicated a period profit of RMB 1.23–1.25 billion, up 195%–200% year over year, driven primarily by unrealized mark-to-market gains related to an AI investment, a reported RMB 78 million positive contribution from its investment in Yonghui Superstores, and the absence of one-off derivative issuance costs recorded a year earlier. In contrast, the company’s adjusted net profit excluding foreign-exchange effects is guided to RMB 0.62–0.64 billion, up 7%–10% year over year, which is the more relevant yardstick for assessing underlying retail profitability. The market reaction will likely hinge on how management frames the durability of non-operating items versus the trajectory of adjusted operating earnings power. A second support for sentiment has been capital actions and insider alignment. The company repurchased shares in March 2026, and in April 2026 disclosed that its controlling shareholder and chief executive plans to increase holdings from the open market over the next 12 months. These actions can help underpin valuation into the print by signaling confidence and providing a backstop during periods of volatility, even if they do not directly alter the quarter’s income statement. When combined with the positive profit indication, they contribute to a constructive backdrop that may bias investors toward focusing on adjusted metrics and forward execution rather than one-off noise. Third, guidance discipline matters. The market’s “consensus” style modeling pegs revenue at approximately RMB 5.57 billion (+27.42% year over year) and EBIT at about RMB 1.19 billion (+53.20% year over year), while the company’s own indication suggests revenue slightly higher at RMB 5.68–5.73 billion (+28% to +29%). Bridging those frameworks, investors will look for management to reaffirm ranges that are consistent with the positive indication and to contextualize gross margin resilience given last quarter’s 46.39% outcome. The absence of an explicit gross margin guide places greater emphasis on narrative detail around product mix and cost structure. If management communicates stability in merchandise margin and continued expense discipline, the market may be comfortable extrapolating the EBIT trajectory even as adjusted net profit growth remains single-digit to low-teens year over year.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate the recent institutional commentary we collected, with 100% of identified analysts’ takes categorized as positive and 0% as negative over the covered period. CICC maintained an Outperform rating on MINISO Group Holding Limited and kept its price targets unchanged at HKD 39.16 and US$20.32, noting upside potential from current trading levels and reiterating non-IFRS net profit forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027. This stance explicitly acknowledges the company’s recent positive indication for the quarter ended March 31, 2026—revenue of RMB 5.68–5.73 billion (+28% to +29% year over year) and adjusted net profit excluding FX of RMB 0.62–0.64 billion (+7% to +10% year over year)—and frames a constructive pathway for adjusted earnings that deemphasizes volatile non-operating gains. The bullish case rests on several pillars that align with the quarter’s setup. First, top-line scalability remains intact: even the more conservative market estimate of RMB 5.57 billion implies around 27.42% year-over-year growth, and the company’s own indication implies slightly higher growth. Second, adjusted profitability looks set to advance, with EBIT estimates up more than 50% year over year and adjusted net profit excluding FX guided to grow in the high single to low double digits; this supports a narrative of operating leverage and cost control despite the noise in GAAP results from non-operating items. Third, recent capital actions—share repurchases in March 2026 and the controlling shareholder’s intention to increase holdings—provide additional validation for the trajectory management expects over the medium term. Institutional commentary also flags the importance of parsing adjusted metrics to assess underlying health. While the period profit uplift of +195% to +200% is welcome, the fact that it largely reflects fair value changes on investments and the absence of prior one-offs leads analysts to focus on revenue durability, gross profit conversion, and expense discipline. In that context, the prior quarter’s gross margin of 46.39% and the market’s EBIT growth expectations create meaningful benchmarks for this print. Analysts expect that management will prioritize clarity on the sustainability of adjusted operating profit growth and the mix of drivers in the current quarter, which should help frame expectations for the rest of the fiscal year. Finally, the consolidated business mix remains a point of incremental optimism among bullish analysts. The core MINISO brand’s contribution of RMB 5.65 billion last quarter underscores its role as the principal earnings driver, and while segment-level growth rates were not disclosed, the trajectory of group revenue and the capital markets momentum around TOP TOY support the view that the company has multiple levers to advance adjusted earnings. In sum, the balance of analyst opinion favors a positive interpretation heading into the report: revenue growth tracking the company’s indicated range, EBIT advancing faster than the top line, adjusted net profit excluding FX rising in line with guidance, and non-operating gains reinforcing rather than overshadowing the underlying trend.