Spot gold is currently trading around $4,062. On August 4, the price opened higher and surged to $4,082 before facing resistance and declining. It found support at a low of $4,019, forming a volatile pattern of opening high and moving lower throughout the day. Market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of US-Iran negotiations cooling down, further diminishing geopolitical risk premiums and weakening gold's upward momentum. However, the risk of conflict in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated, providing ongoing support at the lower end. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting Friday's US non-farm payroll data, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach. High US Treasury yields continue to fluctuate, suppressing gold's rebound potential, while the short-term fundamental outlook makes it difficult to break the current technical consolidation pattern.
On the technical side, the daily chart shows a long lower shadow bearish candle, with gold falling below the MA5 moving average. Short-term moving averages are turning downward, forming resistance. The MA20 moving average at $4,020 serves as key support, while $4,110 represents a medium-term strong resistance level. The daily MACD red bars continue to shrink, with the fast and slow lines trending toward convergence. The RSI has fallen to 44, in the neutral range, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The trend has shifted from a moderately strong volatility to a weaker high-level consolidation, while the broad range-bound structure remains intact. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, with gold trading above the middle band. Short-term moving averages are turning upward, but the MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover. The KDJ is in the low range, suggesting potential for technical corrective demand. On the 1-hour chart, prices are oscillating repeatedly between $4,040 and $4,068, with rebounds consistently facing resistance from short-term moving averages.
Across multiple timeframes, the daily chart shows pressure and consolidation, the 4-hour chart indicates a weak trend, and the hourly chart signals a bottoming rebound pattern. Before the non-farm payroll data release, the market is expected to maintain a range-bound movement, with no clear directional trend. Key intraday support levels are at $4,020 and $4,000, while resistance is at $4,068 and $4,082. Trading strategy: consider a short position in the range of $4,065-$4,068, with a stop-loss above $4,085 and a target of $4,025-$4,020. If the price stabilizes upon retracing to $4,020-$4,030, a long position can be taken, with a stop-loss below $4,008 and a take-profit near $4,060.