Shenwan Hongyuan's latest strategy report points out that the conditions for initiating a positive cycle of incremental fund inflows are increasingly favorable. The report analyzes the market from three perspectives: fundamentals, fund flows, and sector selection.
Firstly, the relative revenue and profit growth rates of small-cap stocks compared to the overall market have continued to improve. The growth momentum of small enterprises remains robust, which constitutes a key fundamental trend verified by the first-quarter 2026 reports. The recent diffusion of the technology growth rally has a solid fundamental foundation.
Following the first-quarter reporting season, the small-cap growth style has rebounded as anticipated. Beyond the support from the conclusion of the earnings season and a stalemate in overseas conflicts leading to a recovery in risk appetite, the fundamental rationale for small-cap outperformance is also clear. The revenue and profit growth rates of small-cap stocks relative to the overall A-share market (excluding financials and petroleum) have continued their upward trajectory. Concurrently, the growth rate of small enterprises—measured by the marginal change in revenue share of companies ranking in the bottom 40% by income within each sector—continues to rise. This serves as the most direct synchronous fundamental indicator for small-cap dominance. This trend is linked to the ongoing deepening of new economic industry trends and the broadening reach of AI-driven inflation. It also aligns with the trend of venture capital and primary market financing bottoming out and rebounding since 2025, alongside a continuous increase in new economic hotspots. The short-term diffusion rally in technology growth has a relatively solid fundamental base, suggesting the probability of a successful near-term market performance is not low.
Secondly, the accumulation of赚钱效应 in the A-share market is undergoing a qualitative change. The conditions for kickstarting a subsequent positive cycle of incremental fund inflows are improving. After a recent step-up in the index, a phase of sideways consolidation may follow, but this could merely represent the lower bound of the market trend. The upper bound is defined by incremental fund inflows opening up space for upward potential, suggesting the second phase of the上涨行情 may be just beginning.
Within an upward cycle, incremental funds can be categorized as "early-arriving money" and "later-arriving money." The composition of early-arriving money varies each cycle, relating to capital market reforms and the developmental stage of the asset management industry. In the current cycle, early-arriving money primarily consists of ETFs, allocation-oriented funds, fixed-income-plus strategies, and quantitative funds. Later-arriving money is mainly driven by the accumulation of赚钱效应, leading to a positive cycle of incremental fund inflows. Based on historical patterns observed around the peak of the last public fund issuance cycle, a new round of规模扩张 typically begins when the net asset value of public funds from the previous issuance peak rises to between 1.1 and 1.2. Expansion may accelerate once the net value exceeds 1.2. Following this week's structural market movements, the net value of public funds has already surpassed 1.3, indicating that the accumulation of赚钱效应 has reached a qualitative turning point. Even considering the learning effect within the public fund channel, subsequent investment opportunities are increasingly likely to evolve into a positive cycle of incremental fund inflows. This is manifested by the resurgence of strong momentum in sector ETFs and leading规模扩张 in active products within technology sectors, thereby expanding the potential for upward gains.
For a market rally validated by new economic景气, the baseline演绎模式 under standard assumptions would involve a phase of new high-level consolidation following a step-up in stock prices. However, incorporating discussions on medium-term capital supply and demand, the report suggests this consolidation might only represent the lower bound of the trend. The upper bound is defined by incremental fund inflows creating room for further upside, with the second phase of the上涨行情 potentially commencing imminently. For the short-term market, the report advises against premature profit-taking on the偏左侧.
Potential downside risks to monitor in the second quarter include: the ongoing stalemate in US-Iran conflicts, which may lead to prolonged and反复 disruptions to shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of insufficient crude oil supply could be more significant than high oil prices. External economic shocks may集中显现 in Q2 2026, and the effects of cost impacts might也开始显现. Additionally, vigilance is required against the possibility of inventory falling below safe levels, potentially triggering significant volatility in commodity and capital markets. While endogenous market forces are strengthening, external risks have not been完全排除. At this stage, there is rationale for appropriately curbing excessive heat in the capital markets.
Thirdly, the approach to sector selection remains unchanged, continuing to seek investment opportunities within the main thematic directions. The report maintains a bullish stance on high-flying sectors such as optical communication, energy storage, memory, and gas turbines. Conditions are favorable for the演绎 of扩散行情, with investment opportunities in commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics值得关注. For subsequent new景气 directions, focus areas include new energy, new energy vehicles, and export/overseas expansion Alpha opportunities.
Regarding structural selection, the report continues to emphasize坚守主线 assets. Sectors capable of消化估值 through earnings performance offer a higher下限 for short-term行情. After a near-term step-up, they may enter new sideways consolidation ranges. Building on this foundation, opportunities arising from the共振 of fundamentals and incremental funds, where valuation锚定迁移 opens up upward potential, are also值得关注.
The report remains看好 of the main thematic opportunities in optical communication, memory, energy storage, and gas turbines. Based on this, conditions are favorable for the short-term演绎 of赚钱效应扩散行情. Key focus areas include修复 opportunities in lower-positioned technology tracks such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics. In the next phase,挖掘新增景气拐点 directions should primarily focus on sectors benefiting from global industrial adjustments following the US-Iran conflict. Key structural focuses are the Alpha directions within new energy, new energy vehicles, and the export/overseas expansion chain.
Risk提示: Overseas economic recession exceeding expectations, domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations.