Reinforcing Bar: The rebar futures market displayed a moderately firm tone during Wednesday's trading session, with the main contract for October 2025 closing at 3,032 yuan per metric ton. This represented a gain of 15 yuan, or 0.5%, compared to the prior day's settlement, alongside a reduction of 72,800 open positions. In the physical market, spot prices saw modest increases while trading volumes experienced a slight pullback. Tangshan Qian'an area saw its standard billet price climb by 10 yuan to 2,960 yuan per ton, and Hangzhou's Zhongtian brand rebar rose by the same margin to 3,050 yuan per ton. Nationwide construction steel turnover reached 87,800 tons. According to Mysteel's weekly data, national rebar output declined by 21,900 tons week-on-week to 1.8038 million tons, marking a year-on-year decrease of 342,700 tons. Social inventories fell by 94,500 tons to 5.047 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 721,900 tons, while mill inventories decreased by 63,300 tons to 1.7815 million tons, up 36,200 tons from the same period last year. Apparent demand for rebar recovered, adding 18,600 tons week-on-week to reach 1.9616 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13,500 tons. The data reveals ongoing production cuts, an expanding pace of inventory drawdowns, and recovering demand, all pointing to supply-demand fundamentals performing better than market expectations. Recent property sector easing measures announced in Beijing, Shanghai, and other major cities have provided a boost to market sentiment. In the near term, the market is likely to continue its range-bound trading pattern with a narrow band.

Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market saw its primary contract for January 2027 slip marginally, closing at 707 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, or 0.7%, from the previous settlement. Trading volume reached 350,000 lots, while open interest expanded by 65,100 contracts. Port spot prices softened, with Rizhao's 60.8% grade PB fines falling 4 yuan to 681 yuan, and Carajas fines also dropping 4 yuan to 831 yuan. Mysteel data for the week indicates that daily hot metal output among 247 surveyed steel mills edged down by 5,200 tons to 2.3768 million tons. The profitability rate among these mills declined by 1.3 percentage points to 32.47%. Iron ore inventories at 47 major ports decreased by 609,000 tons week-on-week to 173.606 million tons, while port stockpiles held by the 247 mills increased by 995,000 tons to 89.1077 million tons. The data reflects a slight reduction in hot metal production alongside ongoing, though modest, declines in port inventories, indicating a contraction on both the supply and demand fronts. The iron ore market is expected to maintain its narrow, range-bound fluctuation in the short term.

Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market advanced notably, with the September 2026 contract climbing by 82.5 yuan to close at 1,493 yuan per ton, a gain of 5.85%, while open interest decreased by 28,593 contracts. In the spot market, Jiexiu's main coking coal, with specifications of ash content below 10.5%, sulfur below 1.3%, and a G-value above 80, held steady at 1,860 yuan per ton. At the Ganqimaodu border port, Mongolia's #5 raw coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,475 yuan per ton, while the #3 washed coal rose by 80 yuan from the previous period to 1,520 yuan per ton. Production resumption at major mining areas continues to lag, with safety inspections showing no signs of relaxation. Miners maintain a firm pricing stance, and some with previously low inventory levels are becoming more reluctant to sell. Price increases in the production areas are broadening, and enthusiasm in the online auction market remains robust. High-quality coking coal is consistently selling at premiums, with low failure rates at auctions and sustained high market activity. The initiation of the first round of coke price hikes has raised expectations for improved profitability among coke producers, leading to a noticeable acceleration in their procurement pace and a significant increase in inquiries. The near-term outlook for coking coal futures is bullish, with expectations of continued strong performance.

Coke: The coke futures market also moved higher, with the September 2026 contract closing at 2,043 yuan per ton, up 64 yuan, or 3.23%, from the prior settlement, while open interest saw a reduction of 5,459 contracts. In the spot market, Rizhao Port's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke rose by 40 yuan from the previous period to 1,780 yuan per ton. The sustained increase in coking coal prices has significantly driven up production costs for coke manufacturers. Under pressure from losses, coke producers are showing reduced enthusiasm for production, with some further expanding their output curtailment measures. This has led to a decline in overall coke supply on a week-on-week basis, and inventories at coke plants continue to decrease, leaving marketable resources relatively tight. Expectations for further coke price hikes are strengthening. Downstream steel mills have notably increased their purchasing activity, and spot sales are proceeding smoothly. The short-term outlook for coke futures is anticipated to remain strong.

Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, manganese silicon futures saw a modest rise, with the main contract closing at 5,930 yuan per ton, up 0.34% from the previous session. Open interest for the main contract increased by 16,250 contracts to 416,300. According to Ganglian data, market prices for 6517-grade manganese silicon across various regions ranged from 5,700 to 5,950 yuan per ton, with Inner Mongolia prices seeing an upward adjustment of 30 yuan per ton from the previous day. The broader ferrous complex showed diverging trends yesterday, with manganese silicon prices managing a slight upward shift in its trading center. Recently, the cost side has provided some support for manganese silicon, as manganese ore prices have recovered modestly, though significant further gains appear challenging. Looking at supply and demand, spot production profits for manganese silicon in most major production areas have improved on a week-on-week basis, leading to a halt in the production decline and a subsequent rebound in weekly output. For the week ending August 14, weekly manganese silicon production reached 160,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.14%, with operating rates at production facilities in Gansu Province rising substantially. On the demand side, last week's rebar output decreased by 3.82% week-on-week, and the weekly demand for manganese silicon from sample steel mills fell by 0.23% to 114,000 tons, marking a third consecutive weekly decline and remaining at relatively low absolute levels. On the inventory front, stocks at 63 sampled manganese silicon enterprises declined slightly, totaling 458,000 tons as of August 14, down 5,000 tons week-on-week but up 299,200 tons year-on-year, continuing to set fresh highs in recent years. In summary, while sentiment across the ferrous complex has seen some recent improvement, the fundamental drivers for a concerted upward move are limited. Manganese silicon futures are likely to continue their range-bound trading in the short term, with market sentiment being a key factor to monitor.

Silicon Iron: On Thursday, silicon iron futures saw a marginal decline, with the main contract closing at 5,966 yuan per ton, down 0.03% from the prior session. Open interest for the main contract increased by 15,765 contracts to 450,000. Aggregate prices for 72-grade silicon iron across various regions were 5,560 to 5,650 yuan per ton, essentially unchanged from the previous day. The ferrous complex exhibited divergent trends yesterday, with silicon iron prices staying broadly flat. From a fundamental perspective, firm coal prices have kept semi-coke prices strong, providing support on the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, a silicon iron producer in Inner Mongolia has initiated maintenance on a 63,000 kVA furnace, expected to last 15 days and impact output by over 2,000 tons. With a slight recovery in spot production profits across most major producing regions, there are expectations for production resumptions in some areas. On the demand side, ongoing steel tenders continue, with market activity focused on delivery. Last week, the weekly demand for silicon iron from sample steel mills fell by 0.72% to 18,400 tons, still at relatively low levels compared to the same period in the past five years. Magnesium ingot production decreased, with daily output down 3.09% to 3,039 tons. On the inventory front, the combined total of silicon iron warrants and effective advance notices has seen a significant year-on-year decrease. Overall, silicon iron production remains subject to fluctuations, and the new momentum from fundamentals is limited. The market is expected to maintain its range-bound fluctuation in the short term, with attention on the broader ferrous complex's trajectory.

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