Over the past decade, how have various sectors performed on the first trading day after the National Day holiday? A review of Wind data from 2016 to 2025 shows that among the 10 post-holiday first trading days, there were 7 years in which more than half of the 31 Shenwan first-level industries rose. Pharmaceuticals and biologics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and utilities each rose in 8 years, tying for the most frequent gains. This year, before the holiday (as of the September 30 close), only 5 of the 31 Shenwan first-level industries rose, with real estate, oil and petrochemicals, and banking bucking the trend to close higher, while telecommunications and electronics posted the steepest declines.

Real estate led gains before the holiday, with sector rotation accelerating

As of the September 30 close, only 5 of the 31 Shenwan first-level industries rose over the past 5 trading days. The top gainers were real estate (2.23%), oil and petrochemicals (1.67%), and banking (1.61%); the top decliners were telecommunications (-9.20%), electronics (-8.37%), and building materials (-7.00%); the consumer chain showed mixed performance, with beauty care up 0.83% and food and beverage down 0.10%. Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, told the Securities Daily that the accelerated sector rotation before this year's holiday was driven by three overlapping constraints: first, cross-holiday risk premiums, as funds tended to reduce risk exposure before the holiday, with high-volatility growth sectors being the first to be trimmed; second, institutional assessment pressure at the end of the third quarter, as previously concentrated positions with unrealized gains needed to be realized; third, external liquidity suppression, as high US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on global high-valuation assets. Wu Zewei, a special researcher at Suning Bank who was interviewed by the Securities Daily, believed that the accelerated pre-holiday rotation was a portfolio rebalancing by institutional funds in a stock-game environment and did not mean a new long-term main line had formed.

Post-holiday first-day gains and losses diverged over the past decade, with stark differences in strength

Based on first-day post-holiday performance, 2016, 2020, and 2024 each saw 30 industries rise, while 2017 saw 28; 2018, 2022, and 2023 saw more declines than gains, with all 31 industries falling in 2018, while 2025 saw 25 industries rise, led by non-ferrous metals up 7.59%. In the 3 years with more declines than gains, utilities and coal either fell less or still managed to close higher; agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the smallest decline in 2018 and led gains in 2022 with 2.78%. On the first post-holiday day, pharmaceuticals and biologics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and utilities each rose in 8 years, tying for first place; 11 industries including electronics, computers, and telecommunications rose in 7 years; 12 industries including automobiles and oil and petrochemicals rose in 6 years; 4 industries rose in 5 years; and only social services rose in 4 years, the fewest. In terms of average first-day post-holiday gains, computers posted an average rise of 1.80% over the past 10 years, the highest, but mainly driven by a 13.92% surge on the first post-holiday day in 2024; excluding 2024, its average gain fell to 0.46%, and the top spot shifted to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with a gain of 1.30%.

Post-holiday performance influenced by external factors and policy, medium-term direction still to be observed

The sectors that led gains before the holiday also showed mixed first-day post-holiday performance based on historical data: oil and petrochemicals rose in 6 years, while real estate rose in only 5 years; telecommunications and building materials, which posted the steepest pre-holiday declines, both rose on the first post-holiday day in 7 years. It is evident that pre-holiday gains and losses have no fixed correspondence with first-day post-holiday performance. Wu Zewei said the first post-holiday trading day will be the result of changes in overseas markets during the holiday, domestic policy signals, and the return of onshore funds: overseas asset price fluctuations during the long holiday will directly affect risk appetite at the opening, while industrial and growth-stabilization policies introduced during the holiday will change market expectations for fundamentals. However, single-day market action mostly reflects short-term sentiment repair and does not represent a reversal of medium- to long-term trends. Investors should not judge market direction solely based on a single trading day's gains or losses and should continue to track high-frequency economic data and corporate earnings improvements. Tian Lihui said that during rotation periods, the greatest danger is being swayed by short-term ranking pressure and repeatedly chasing gains and cutting losses during high-low switches; true excess returns come not from rotation itself but from independent judgment of industrial trends and adherence to valuation discipline. Regarding the post-holiday market, Liu Wei, investment director of Ganguan Private Fund Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily that in terms of direction, one should grasp the barbell structure of "tech growth + dividend defense"; in terms of rhythm, wait for verification from third-quarter reports and fiscal implementation; in terms of structure, focus on directions with verifiable industrial trends and clear catalyst timing points, while remaining alert to disturbances from external interest rates and geopolitical factors. The medium-term main line of the market has not yet been broken, but trend opportunities at the index level still require clearer signals. First-day post-holiday market action is heavily influenced by domestic and overseas news during the long holiday, and historical statistics do not represent future trends. The above institutional views do not constitute investment advice, and investors should view them rationally. Table: First trading day after National Day over the past 10 years: full picture of Shenwan first-level industry gains (2016-2025) (Unit: %) Data source: Wind Table by: Wang Xueer, Cong Kexin Note: Industry gains and losses in this article are weighted average gains and losses of Shenwan first-level industry free-float market capitalization, with data from Wind.

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