New ship prices continue their upward trajectory, with prices for oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships rising in tandem. July marked the fourth consecutive month of growth in newbuilding prices, maintaining a trend that has persisted since the start of the year. The strong freight market in the oil tanker sector has boosted shipowners' appetite for ordering new vessels, driving price increases for tanker newbuilds ahead of other segments. Compared to the start of 2024, new tanker prices have risen by 4.18%, bulk carrier prices by 4.98%, container ship prices by 2.02%, gas carrier prices by 1.91%, and car carrier prices by 1.11%. With shared shipyard capacity across different vessel types, prices are moving in a synchronized upward pattern, and this trend is expected to continue, according to Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd..

In terms of order volumes, July saw a seasonal dip in new contracts, though oil tanker and LNG carrier orders posted strong year-on-year gains, and the composition of new orders remained relatively balanced. Over the past three years, July orders have typically declined from June due to a concentration of order confirmations at the end of the second quarter, the summer holiday period in Europe and the US, and statistical lags. As of July, 3.57 million compensated gross tons (CGT) have been recorded, down 56% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. However, oil tanker and LNG carrier orders surged 69% and 184% year-on-year, respectively. Further upward revisions are expected as Clarksons continues to update its data.

Songfa Stock (松发股份) reported second-quarter 2026 (26Q2) earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by the delivery of high-priced orders and improved efficiency, which are accelerating profit release. The company's profit growth potential is robust. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 3.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2026 (26H1), up 456% year-on-year. For 26Q2 alone, it expects a net profit of about 2.5 billion yuan, up 129% quarter-on-quarter and 275% year-on-year—beating forecasts. Rapid capacity ramp-up and the gradual delivery of high-margin orders are fueling faster profit realization. The company's volume, pricing, and vessel mix are also improving. As of the end of July, expected delivery volumes for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are up 423%, 60%, and 52% year-on-year, respectively. The share of bulk carriers in deliveries is set to drop from 64% in 2026 to 10% in 2028, while container ships' share rises from 0% to 46%. The proportion of VLCCs and large LNG dual-fuel container ships is also increasing. A potential order from MSC further validates the company's advanced container shipbuilding capability. Capacity expansion supports long-term growth. In July, the company secured new orders totaling 490,000 CGT, primarily scheduled for delivery in 2028–2029, further boosting future annual production volumes. With its first three phases operating at full efficiency, the company's annual output value could surpass 100 billion yuan. Approval has been granted for a fourth-phase expansion, leaving room for further growth.

Earnings for China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited (中国船舶) and CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited (中船防务) in 26Q2 were in line with expectations, with an improving order mix supporting higher profitability. China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited expects 26H1 net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.2–11.0 billion yuan, up 144%–191% year-on-year on a restated, post-merger basis. For 26Q2, it forecasts net profit of 4.37–6.17 billion yuan, up 140%–239% year-on-year, with a midpoint of 5.27 billion yuan, meeting expectations. CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited expects 26H1 net profit attributable to shareholders of 790–890 million yuan, up 50%–69% year-on-year. For 26Q2, it forecasts net profit of 390–490 million yuan, up 15%–44% year-on-year, with a midpoint of 444 million yuan, also in line with expectations. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (扬子江) reported a record-high shipbuilding gross margin of 37% for 26H1, raising the ceiling for industry profit margins.

Risk warnings: New orders in the commercial ship segment may fall short of expectations; a downturn in shipping market conditions; sharp rises in steel prices or significant appreciation of the renminbi; increased competition from shipyards in Southeast Asia and other countries; and potential discrepancies between profit forecasts and actual results.