On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, October 8, influenced by a projection report, the technology sector suffered heavy losses, while dividend and other defensive plays strengthened against the trend, resulting in clear structural divergence in the indices.

Despite poor profit-making effects, capital did not leave the market. Data shows that nearly 18 billion yuan of funds increased positions in equity ETFs.

Broad-based ETFs become the main force for absorbing capital; STAR 50 Index and ChiNext Index are favored

On the first trading day of October, the ChiNext Index fell 3.15%, and the STAR 50 Index dropped 4.82%, with technology growth sectors leading the decline. From a capital perspective, the willingness to enter the market has not faded, and equity ETFs showed a clear "buy more as prices fall" characteristic.

On October 8, equity ETFs overall saw a net inflow of 17.907 billion yuan. Among them, broad-based ETFs had the largest net inflow, reaching 10.997 billion yuan; thematic ETFs received significant net inflows of 6.965 billion yuan. Combined with capital changes in ETFs tracking indices, themes such as chips and semiconductors continued to be favored.

It is worth noting that bond ETFs experienced significant net outflows, amounting to 6.183 billion yuan. This is one of the few single-day net outflows since the scale of bond ETFs exceeded one trillion yuan. In addition, cross-border ETFs received a net inflow of 2.781 billion yuan, indicating that domestic investors' demand for global asset allocation remains strong. Commodity ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.135 billion yuan, and under geopolitical and inflation expectation fluctuations, commodity ETFs such as gold still have certain allocation value.

Specifically at the index level, on October 8, ETFs tracking the STAR 50 Index had the highest net inflow, reaching 5.515 billion yuan; ETFs tracking the ChiNext Index saw a net inflow of 2.563 billion yuan. Over a longer period, in the past month, these two types of ETFs respectively saw net inflows of 17.293 billion yuan and 9.06 billion yuan. In addition, ETFs tracking indices such as Hang Seng Tech, CSI 1000, and STAR Chip had single-day net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with net inflows of 1.348 billion yuan, 1.188 billion yuan, and 1.167 billion yuan, respectively.

In terms of net outflows, bond ETFs led the outflows, with ETFs tracking the AAA STAR Bond Index seeing a single-day net outflow of 3.367 billion yuan, and ETFs tracking the CSI Short-term Financing Index seeing a net outflow of 1.045 billion yuan.

Among individual ETFs, China AMC SSE STAR 50 ETF topped the list with a single-day net inflow of 3.545 billion yuan, and its data for the past week, month, and three months were also very strong; E Fund ChiNext ETF followed closely with a single-day net inflow of 2.136 billion yuan. In addition, E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF and GF STAR 50 ETF also ranked among the top in net inflow amounts. In terms of sub-sectors, the semiconductor and chip sectors received net capital inflows, with Harvest SSE STAR Chip ETF and Guolian An Semiconductor ETF respectively seeing net inflows of 862 million yuan and 662 million yuan. China AMC SSE STAR Semiconductor Materials ETF had a single-day net inflow of 703 million yuan and attracted a strong 37.887 billion yuan over the past six months.

From the perspective of fund companies, affected by declining net values, most companies' ETF scales declined somewhat, but top-tier companies saw obvious net capital inflows. E Fund's ETF scale reached 619.276 billion yuan, attracting 4.385 billion yuan in a single day. Among them, E Fund ChiNext ETF saw a net inflow of 2.136 billion yuan, with a scale of 65.114 billion yuan; E Fund STAR 50 ETF saw a net inflow of 842 million yuan, with a scale of 41.283 billion yuan; E Fund Artificial Intelligence ETF saw a net inflow of 584 million yuan, with a scale of 19.397 billion yuan; E Fund Hang Seng Tech saw a net inflow of 237 million yuan, with a scale of 24.121 billion yuan; E Fund Gold ETF saw a net inflow of 153 million yuan, with a scale of 36.171 billion yuan. For China AMC's ETFs, on October 8, they received a net inflow of 6.136 billion yuan. China AMC STAR 50 ETF and China AMC STAR Semiconductor ETF respectively saw net inflows of 3.607 billion yuan and 715 million yuan, with latest scales reaching 93.157 billion yuan and 40.918 billion yuan, and the corresponding tracked indices had average daily turnover of 6.182 billion yuan and 4.564 billion yuan over the past month.

Institutions suggest balanced allocation in the fourth quarter

In the view of fund companies, the global liquidity environment is temporarily tight, and the market may be dominated by stock game and structural rotation, with relatively limited index-level opportunities, and style and industry rebalancing may continue. Southern Fund stated that on the first day after the holiday, risk aversion heated up. The overnight Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a more than 24-year high, suppressing high-valuation growth assets. The Hong Kong technology sector pulled back, capital shifted to high-dividend, low-volatility directions, and the relative advantages of central enterprise dividend assets attracted market attention. China Fortune Fund said that in the fourth quarter, it tends toward "both offense and defense, balanced allocation," using dividend and value assets as the bottom position to reduce portfolio volatility while retaining attention to growth and technology directions. If overseas liquidity expectations further improve, or if the market experiences a phased adjustment, it can be viewed as a window to gradually increase elasticity. For relatively favored directions, China Fortune Fund pointed out that first, defensive value and dividend assets, as well as the financial sector with stable dividends and long-term allocation needs, may provide portfolio stabilizers in an environment of increased volatility; second, directions with clear industrial trends and high earnings certainty, but in the short term under liquidity constraints, they are more likely to digest valuations and wait for catalysts. After previous gains, small-cap stocks are no longer cheap, and their cost-effectiveness has declined; the fundamental recovery of real estate and consumption still needs observation, and short-term may be mainly bottom-range fluctuations; cyclical, pharmaceutical, and TMT sectors are affected by the global liquidity environment in the short term, and may need to wait in terms of pace.