As oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz approach pre-war levels, Iran has recently been conducting increasingly frequent attacks on tankers in the waterway.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported nine attacks in the Strait of Hormuz so far this month, equivalent to half of the total it reported across the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf during the entire month of September.
Last month's figures were inflated by four attacks occurring in the final two days, underscoring the recent acceleration in attack activity.
During the Iran war, vessels in the Strait of Hormuz faced attacks for most of the time, but the intensity varied.
Previously, intense attacks briefly reduced shipping volumes, though volumes rose in subsequent days, often compensating for the decline.
Maritime security officials and shipping industry executives said it remains unclear whether the latest escalation will lead to a decline in Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes.
How maritime natural gas shipments, which have also slightly recovered in recent weeks, will be affected is equally uncertain.
Energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are critical to oil and natural gas price trends, especially as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.
Recent price increases have heightened concerns that persistent inflationary pressures could prompt major economies to raise interest rates further.
To ease market tensions, some consuming nations announced plans last week to release substantial emergency reserves, while US President Donald Trump has been examining ways to lower domestic fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
Any decline in Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes would only further exacerbate these risks.
Fear and Uncertainty
"Iran appears to be trying to strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz through one of its most sophisticated tools of coercion — fear and uncertainty," Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of risk management firm Marisks, wrote in a report. "Iran does not need to stop all vessels; it only needs to convince the shipping industry that any ship could be the next target."
Most tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz use shipping lanes close to the coast of Oman.
They typically turn off digital signals when transiting, forcing traders and analysts to scrutinize satellite imagery and shipping data to try to determine how much supply is actually passing through the strait.
The latest attacks have also driven freight rates soaring once again.
Data from the London-based Baltic Exchange showed that on Monday, the cost of transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to China rose to a record high of $1.3 million per day.
Last year, this measure averaged close to $60,000 per day; as fewer and fewer shipowners are willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz, freight rates have surged dramatically.