Data released on March 31st by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing showed that in March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and the Composite PMI Output Index all returned to expansion territory. The readings were 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, marking increases of 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in China's economic climate.
The Manufacturing PMI rose into expansionary territory, with both production and demand expanding simultaneously. The data revealed that as enterprises accelerated work resumption following the Spring Festival holiday, market activity increased, pushing the Manufacturing PMI to 50.4% and back into expansion territory. Both production and new orders saw concurrent expansion. The Production Index and the New Orders Index stood at 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, rising by 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from February and both entering expansion territory. This indicates accelerated production activities among manufacturing firms and a significant improvement in market demand.
By sector, the Production and New Orders Indices for agricultural and non-staple food processing, as well as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries, were both above 55.0%, indicating rapid release of output and demand for related enterprises. Conversely, the two indices for the textile, apparel, and accessories industry, and the chemical fibers, rubber, and plastic products industry remained below the 50-point mark, signaling relatively weak market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, corporate procurement willingness strengthened, with the Purchasing Quantity Index reaching 50.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Price indices experienced a significant rebound. Influenced by factors such as recent sustained price increases for some bulk commodities and accelerated corporate procurement activities, the Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index and the Ex-Factory Price Index were 63.9% and 55.4% respectively. These figures represent substantial increases of 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from February, indicating a marked rise in the overall price level within the manufacturing market. Taken together, the concurrent recovery in manufacturing supply and demand and the linked increase in market prices in March demonstrate a well-coordinated economic rebound, with a more solidified foundation for improvement.
Analysis of the data shows that the Production and Business Activity Expectations Index was 53.4% in March, up 0.2 percentage points from February, suggesting that manufacturing companies have enhanced confidence in recent market development. By industry, the Production and Business Activity Expectations Index for specialized equipment, automobiles, railway, ship, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing remained in high景气区间 above 56.0%, indicating greater optimism among related enterprises about future industry prospects.
The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index also rose into expansion territory, reflecting an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's climate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1% in March, up 0.6 percentage points from February. The Service Industry Business Activity Index reached 50.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. By sector, business activity indices for railway transport, telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all located in high景气区间 above 55.0%, indicating rapid growth in total business volume. Regarding market expectations, the Service Industry Business Activity Expectations Index was 54.8%, continuing to operate at a high level, which shows that service industry enterprises maintain optimism about recent market development.
Simultaneously, investment activities related to infrastructure construction have clearly commenced. As construction projects across regions gradually resumed work after the holiday, the Construction Industry Business Activity Index was 49.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From a market expectation perspective, the Construction Industry Business Activity Expectations Index stood at 50.5%, above the critical point, indicating that construction enterprises retain confidence in the future development of the industry. Analysis suggests that while景气水平 for traditional housing construction-related activities remains at a relatively low level,景气水平 for construction activities related to infrastructure investment has improved significantly. Demand for infrastructure related to key areas such as various networks, comprehensive multi-dimensional transport facilities, consumption, low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence integration, and education and healthcare is expected to be continuously released, laying a foundation for fully leveraging the role of infrastructure investment in stabilizing growth.
The Composite PMI Output Index, which reflects overall enterprise production and operation景气水平, was 50.5% in March, rising 1.0 percentage points from February and staying above the critical point. This indicates that the overall景气水平 of production and business activities among Chinese enterprises is trending positively.