Huayuan Securities has issued a research report initiating coverage on ONEROBOTICS (06600) with a "Buy" rating. The firm forecasts the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to reach RMB 0.9 billion, RMB 1.48 billion, and RMB 1.94 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 65%, and 32%. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 26x, 16x, and 12x for those years. The brokerage highlights ONEROBOTICS's first-mover and brand advantages in the home embodied AI sector, bolstered by its self-developed Visual-Language-Action model, proprietary data factory, and standardized component capabilities, which are expected to continuously enhance generalization abilities. The company has also successfully established a commercial闭环 overseas ahead of peers. Looking forward, the penetration of new vertical-specific products is anticipated to drive increases in average selling price and gross margin, creating a flywheel effect where model development, data, and commercialization mutually reinforce each other. Key points from Huayuan Securities are as follows:

As the world's largest provider of AI embodied home robot systems, ONEROBOTICS derives over 95% of its revenue from overseas markets, with a strong presence in Japan, Europe, and North America. The company offers robots specifically designed for various home life scenarios. Its product portfolio primarily includes 1) Enhanced Execution Robots, comprising agile skill robots and enhanced mobility robots; and 2) Perception and Decision-Making Systems, including smart hubs, intelligent sensors, and smart cameras; alongside 3) Other smart home products and services. The company achieved revenues of RMB 270 million, RMB 460 million, and RMB 610 million in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 49% from 2022 to 2024. Revenue is predominantly from international markets, with Japan, Europe, and North America collectively accounting for over 95% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024. Japan served as the initial market, with rapid expansion into Europe and North America. In 2024, revenue contributions from Japan, Europe, and North America were 58%, 21%, and 16% of total revenue, respectively. According to Frost & Sullivan data, the company held an 11.9% market share in the global home robot system products market in 2024, ranking first in retail sales.

The company focuses on developing a universal "brain" for home robots and embodied robot products, fostering a mutually reinforcing flywheel effect between its model, data, and commercialization efforts. Key members of the senior management team predominantly hail from Harbin Institute of Technology, bringing strong technical expertise and ensuring team stability. Professors Li Zexiang and Gao Bingqiang serve as non-executive directors. ONEROBOTICS has independently developed and mastered three core home robot technologies: robot localization and environmental mapping, AI machine vision control, and distributed neural control networks. Leveraging its self-developed VLA model, in-house data collection factory, and standardized component capabilities, the company is poised to continuously improve the generalization ability of its embodied models and promote their commercialization in vertical scenarios. By establishing a product-market fit-driven development system, ONEROBOTICS effectively facilitates an end-to-end innovation cycle encompassing technology R&D, product iteration, and market validation, thereby creating a sustainable flywheel effect.

The business logic for Home Execution Robots and Perception & Decision-Making Systems remains solid, with expansion into new markets expected to drive continued high growth. In 2024, revenue from Enhanced Execution Robots and Perception & Decision-Making Systems within the core Home Robot System products segment reached RMB 350 million and RMB 200 million, accounting for 57% and 33% of total revenue, respectively. Relying on unique demand insights and product iteration capabilities, the company has ranked first in retail sales within Japan's home robot system industry for three consecutive years since 2022. Frost & Sullivan estimates the global market size for Enhanced Execution Robots and Perception & Decision-Making Systems will reach RMB 34.3 billion and RMB 31.9 billion by 2029, respectively, with CAGRs of 61% and 69% from 2024 to 2029. The brokerage believes that replicating successful market strategies in other overseas regions could further increase market share. Coupled with the ongoing expansion of the global robot system industry, this provides robust support for the growth of the company's main business.

New vertical scenarios are flourishing, with three new business lines—sports, companion, and household robots—opening new growth avenues. Since 2025, the company has launched the world's first real-time rallying AI tennis robot, Acemate; the world's first locally-deployed large language model integrated with autonomous mobility, the AI companion robot Kata Friends; and the humanoid household robot Onero H1. 1) Acemate Tennis Robot: Launched in May 2025, Acemate leverages the company's AI machine vision recognition, high-dynamic environment interaction, and real-time decision-making capabilities tailored for sports training. This product not only helps tap into a new market segment but is also expected to boost the average selling price due to its premium positioning. The product raised over $2.4 million on Kickstarter. According to Frost & Sullivan, the global tennis robot industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 293% from 2025 to 2029, reaching a market size of RMB 8.27 billion by 2029. 2) AI Companion Robot Kata Friends: Officially launched at IFA Berlin in September 2025, it is the world's first AI pet robot integrating a locally-deployed large model with autonomous movement. Based on an embodied intelligence framework and presented in a pet-like form, it provides home companionship and emotional interaction, capable of integrating with other devices in the home robot ecosystem. Its subscription-based service model is expected to strengthen the company's cash flow. 3) Humanoid Household Robot Onero H1: Unveiled at CES in January 2026, it centers on the VLA model and employs a standardized hardware architecture, integrating dual 7-degree-of-freedom robotic arms with a high-precision mobile base. Key application scenarios include clothing sorting, dishwashing and storage, and meal preparation assistance. According to Mugenlabo, Onero H1 is planned to be priced below $10,000 per unit. Fortune Business Insights estimates the global home robot market will reach $107.2 billion by 2034, with a projected CAGR of 25.5% from 2025 to 2034. As the company's robot product matrix for home scenarios matures, it adopts a bottom-up approach targeting high-frequency, vertical needs, continuously validating scenario value and establishing corresponding pricing systems.

The brokerage believes that ONEROBOTICS, with its full-stack, self-developed AI embodied intelligence technology covering perception, decision-making, and execution, is well-positioned to achieve "one brain for multiple uses" and successful commercialization across different vertical scenarios. The emergence of higher-priced products and best-selling items is expected to further expand its market scale and enhance product competitiveness.

Risk factors include reliance on overseas markets and channels; risks associated with volume scaling for new product categories and product quality; fluctuations in global consumer demand and exchange rates; and intensifying competition within the smart home ecosystem platform landscape.