Spot gold has surged to a peak of $4,696 in its recent relentless climb, driven partly by growing market uncertainty over U.S. Treasury sustainability, which has reignited devaluation trading enthusiasm.

Bullish sentiment in the gold market is clearly intensifying, with the $5,000 threshold now entering the market's field of vision. However, despite speculative bullish positioning reaching its highest level this year, market sentiment remains below where it stood 12 months ago and has notably retreated compared to the start of the year.

In the short term, oil-price-driven inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's rate hike risks remain key variables capping gold's upside potential. This week's focus centers on U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

On the technical front, the daily chart's moving average system displays a standard bullish alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages sequentially trending upward, confirming an intact long-term uptrend. Yet, gold's current price has deviated significantly from the 5-day moving average, creating a technical pullback and consolidation requirement.

The MACD red histogram, though still above the zero line, shows signs of shrinking, while the KDJ indicator has turned downward from overbought territory, increasing short-term adjustment pressure. In terms of pattern, the daily chart follows an ascending channel with no topping reversal signals appearing.

On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has retreated from $4,696, breaking below the Bollinger Band midline, with short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) turning downward to form resistance. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover at elevated levels with expanding green bars, and RSI has retreated from overbought conditions to near 50, indicating a short-term bearish oscillation bias.

Key support lies at $4,618-$4,600; a break below this level could see prices testing $4,570. The 1-hour candlestick structure displays a "spike-breakdown-retracement" three-step pattern, with $4,625-$4,630 representing the upper boundary of the previous dense trading zone and a support level following the top-bottom conversion.

The 1-hour MACD operates below the zero line, but shrinking green bars suggest potential for a rebound from oversold conditions. If a rebound fails to reclaim $4,650, any bounce represents a selling opportunity; if $4,625 holds with volume supporting a move above $4,650, prices could potentially revisit $4,680 in the short term.

Trading recommendations: 1) Long positions suggested at $4,595-$4,585, with stop loss at $4,570, targeting $4,655-$4,670; 2) Short positions suggested at $4,650-$4,660, with stop loss at $4,675, targeting $4,620-$4,600.

This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should bear the risks associated with their own actions based on this information.