As local governments unveil their 15th Five-Year Plans, a new race among cities to achieve a GDP of one trillion yuan is quietly intensifying. According to analysis, 20 Chinese cities have explicitly stated goals to reach or approach the trillion-yuan GDP threshold by the end of 2030. This suggests that the number of members in the "trillion-yuan GDP club" is set to expand significantly.
Experts note that while economic scale remains a key measure of a city’s standing, the benchmark is rising—from the current one trillion yuan to three trillion or even five trillion yuan. More importantly, the quality of urban economic development is becoming a greater focus for local governments, a shift clearly reflected in the wording of their 15th Five-Year Plans. For these cities, reaching one trillion yuan is not the finish line, but a new starting point.
**Balancing Scale and Quality**
The continuous and stable growth of China’s overall economy will inevitably drive the expansion of urban economies, making an increase in the number of trillion-yuan GDP cities a natural progression. However, experts emphasize that while GDP size was once the primary measure of urban development, future evaluations should place greater emphasis on quality. Innovation capability is highlighted as a critical indicator: even if a city’s total economic output is not exceptionally large, global leadership in a specific industry can reflect its advanced development level.
Moreover, as many cities aim to join the trillion-yuan club during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is essential that economic growth translates into tangible benefits for residents. Factors such as steady increases in household income and continuous improvements in the employment environment are crucial. A city’s happiness index should align with its economic scale.
Among the 20 cities aspiring to enter the trillion-yuan GDP club, many have emphasized enhancing residents' well-being and developing new quality productive forces in their 15th Five-Year Plans. For example, Huizhou’s plan calls for synchronizing growth in resident income with economic growth and aligning increases in labor compensation with improvements in labor productivity. Shaoxing’s government work report outlines efforts to upgrade industries, develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, and build a strong education, science, and talent hub. The city aims for an average annual increase of around 8.5% in R&D spending, with the goal of having strategic emerging industries account for over 45% of its added value by 2030.
Nevertheless, the symbolic importance of the "trillion-yuan GDP" as a measure of urban development remains significant. GDP, as a macroeconomic indicator, represents the final output of a city’s production activities. Even if the significance of the trillion-yuan benchmark diminishes over time, the number of cities reaching three trillion or five trillion yuan will become new important metrics in the future.
**Strengthening Midsize Cities to Support Regional Development**
Many of the 20 cities are not provincial capitals. This trend indicates that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s urban landscape will be characterized by "larger leading cities and stronger midsize cities." Midsize cities are expected to play a more prominent role in supporting regional development, particularly in central and western regions. This shift will help balance development beyond a single dominant provincial capital, moving from unipolar leadership to multipolar support, thereby promoting more coordinated regional growth and enhancing overall economic resilience.
For instance, in Hubei Province, Wuhan’s GDP reached 2.2 trillion yuan in 2025, while Yichang and Xiangyang each exceeded 600 billion yuan. The combined economic output of these three cities accounts for over 70% of the province’s total. Hubei’s 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly supports Xiangyang and Yichang in becoming regional central cities, aiming to better bolster the future development of Hubei and the central region.
The queue of 20 cities aiming for "promotion" also reflects the robustness of China’s economic foundation. Initially, trillion-yuan GDP cities were concentrated in eastern coastal areas. Later, provincial capitals in central and western regions, such as Chengdu and Wuhan, joined the club. By the end of 2025, Dalian broke the trillion-yuan mark, achieving a breakthrough for Northeast China. This progression demonstrates the effectiveness of national strategies like "Western Development," "Rise of Central China," and "Revitalization of Northeast China" in urban economic development.
Although non-provincial capital cities continue to focus on expanding their economic scale during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, their development logic has shifted from a pure scale race to a quality competition. Many midsize cities have established development patterns centered around one or two competitive industries. Recent entrants to the trillion-yuan club, such as Changzhou, Yantai, and Wenzhou, have derived their growth momentum more from advanced manufacturing, specialized and innovative SMEs, vibrant private economies, and technological innovation.
Concurrently, the criteria for evaluating large-city development may evolve from a single metric to a multifaceted system. In the future, a diversified evaluation framework may emerge, where "trillion-yuan GDP" becomes a standard benchmark, supplemented by new standards such as industrial health, innovation intensity, and the green quotient of growth.