Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have significantly impacted market sentiment. The US President announced via social media the reinstatement of a blockade targeting Iran, specifically focusing on Iranian vessels or their clients to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz, while assuring fair and open use of the strait for all other nations. The President further stated the US would impose a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the area, with implementation and deployment processes to begin immediately. Additionally, the President indicated that strikes against Iran would continue, having formally notified Congress of the renewed conflict. The US military announced the commencement of a maritime blockade against Iran starting at 16:00 Eastern Time on July 14. Iran responded by stating it would not permit US interference in the management of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that if conflict expands in the region, the flames of war would engulf all countries within it.

Market Performance and Trading Volume

On July 13, 2026, the most active Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 895.00 yuan per gram and closed at 885.94 yuan per gram, marking a decrease of 1.34% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 41,087 contracts with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the overnight session, the main gold contract opened at 887.50 yuan per gram and closed at 873.26 yuan per gram, a decline of 1.43% from the afternoon session's close.

On the same date, the most active Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 14,537.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 14,135.00 yuan per kilogram, representing a drop of 3.55% from the prior session's settlement. The daily trading volume reached 491,789 contracts with open interest at 192,778 contracts. The overnight session for silver saw the main contract open at 14,268 yuan per kilogram and close at 14,015 yuan per kilogram, falling 0.85% from the afternoon close.

US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring

As of July 13, 2026, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.56%, a change of 0.02% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.35%, narrowing by 0.03% from the prior session.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Precious Metals Position and Volume Changes

For the Au2608 contract on July 13, 2026, long positions decreased by 337 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions fell by 303 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 259,350 contracts, a decrease of 34.94% from the day before. Regarding silver, for the Ag2608 contract, long positions decreased by 2,078 contracts and short positions dropped by 678 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous trading day was 971,726 contracts, down 25.02% from the prior session.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking

In terms of precious metals ETF holdings, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,002.45 tonnes yesterday, a decrease of 3.20 tonnes from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tonnes, down 34 tonnes from the prior session.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking

Regarding futures-spot basis, on July 13, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -2.43 yuan per gram, while the domestic premium for silver was -179.45 yuan per kilogram. The gold-silver ratio for the main contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 62.68 yesterday, a change of -1.83% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 69.12, a change of -0.99% from the last trading session.

Fundamental Factors

Monitoring the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market for the previous trading day (July 13, 2026), gold trading volume was 38,362 kilograms, a change of -35.04% from the prior session. Silver trading volume was 387,974 kilograms, a change of -41.12% from the day before. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 14,250 kilograms.

Strategy Outlook

Gold: Neutral

Market risk sentiment related to geopolitics is currently fluctuating, which may lead to a slight weakening in investment demand for gold. Consequently, gold prices are expected to primarily exhibit a consolidative pattern in the near term. The Au2608 contract is anticipated to trade within a range of 860 yuan per gram to 910 yuan per gram.

Silver: Neutral

The current logic for silver is similar to that of gold. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a consolidative pattern. The Ag2608 contract is forecast to trade within a range of 13,650 yuan per kilogram to 15,050 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage: Pause

Options: Pause

Key Risk Factors

Overseas liquidity risks.

Continued exit of speculative positions.