Financial sources have calculated that with the confirmed reduction in retail fuel price caps, a private car owner filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced that the domestic fuel price adjustment window will open at midnight tonight (August 14).
According to monitoring by the NDRC's Price Monitoring Center, international oil prices experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by a recovery during this adjustment cycle (from 12:00 AM on July 31 to 12:00 AM on August 14). Starting at midnight on August 14, domestic retail price caps for gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per tonne, respectively. On a national average basis, the prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-diesel will decrease by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter, respectively.
A calculation shows that after the confirmed reduction in retail fuel price caps, a private car owner filling a standard 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save 9 yuan.
During this fuel adjustment cycle, international oil prices initially fell and then recovered. Throughout the period, influenced by factors such as the evolving situation between the United States and Iran, international oil prices generally followed a pattern of falling first and then rising, with the average price for this cycle being lower than the previous one. Firstly, the increased uncertainty in US-Iran relations drove prices down before they rebounded. In early August, the US canceled its large-scale military strike plan against Iran, temporarily easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and significantly reducing the risk premium in the crude oil market. As a result, Brent crude oil futures prices (hereafter referred to as the same) fell from $90 per barrel to around $79 per barrel within two trading days. Subsequently, as the US-Iran situation entered a stalemate, market concerns reignited, causing prices to fluctuate back up to near $87 per barrel.
Secondly, the sustained disruption of key crude oil shipping routes intensified the global supply tightness. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a standstill, with Iran implementing a blockade of the strait and proposing to ban US and Israeli vessels. The US continued to enforce a maritime blockade against Iran, and on August 12, the number of vessels transiting the strait hit its lowest level in nearly three months. Concurrently, security risks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued to spread. Since August, Yemen's Houthi forces have attacked Saudi maritime shipping, ports, and oil refineries, elevating the risks of regional oil production and transportation. Additionally, the continued decline in US strategic petroleum reserves and upward revisions to oil price forecasts by institutions such as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have further disrupted the trajectory of international oil prices.
The NDRC's Price Monitoring Center has assessed that the current geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain. Negotiations for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are caught in a repeating stalemate, with both the US and Iran making war compensation claims against each other, increasing the difficulty of reaching an agreement. Iran has explicitly stated that it will escalate the conflict if its conditions are not met. Going forward, close attention must be paid to the impact of developments in the US-Iran situation on international oil prices.