Global technology stock performance has diverged since 2026.

A key question has been why the Hang Seng Tech Index has significantly underperformed its global peers.

Initial Analysis

She pointed out that the core driver for South Korean stocks is the AI super-cycle in the memory industry.

The weakness in the Hang Seng Tech Index stems from the fact that the AI narrative for its heavyweight constituents like TENCENT and Alibaba has temporarily failed to impress the market.

However, Hong Kong-listed hardware stocks and newly listed tech leaders have already shown independent strength.

If the heavyweight stocks experience their own transformative moment akin to Google's, the index has considerable room for recovery.

South Korea's Market Surge

Regarding the historic rally in the South Korean stock market, she believes its core aligns closely with the global tech theme: the synergy between AI and hardware.

On one hand, the new South Korean administration has provided policy support for capital markets, similar to the logic of recent policy support for the tech sector in A-shares.

However, the more critical driving force comes from the memory industry.

She stated that "Samsung and SK Hynix have driven the stock performance of the entire Korean market."

Whether the opportunity in the memory sector can persist will directly determine the subsequent trend of South Korean stocks.

She judges that as long as the AI-driven memory super-cycle has not ended, the South Korean market will continue to attract global capital, with the memory field being the most attractive and closely watched segment.

Hang Seng Tech's Underperformance

In stark contrast to the heated performance of South Korean and U.S. tech stocks, the Hang Seng Tech Index faced pressure in May.

She first explained from a base effect perspective: last year, the Hang Seng Tech Index ranked high in global market returns, even entering the global top three at one point.

This high base effect makes the year-on-year performance feel weaker this year.

However, the deeper reason lies in structural issues with the index's heavyweight constituents.

She noted that the stock performance of platform companies like TENCENT and Alibaba significantly influences the Hang Seng Tech Index.

Market concerns about them currently center on two points: first, that their resource investment is not sufficiently focused on AI, criticized externally for "still fighting the food delivery war"; second, that their model capabilities have not yet impressed the market.

Meanwhile, newly listed AI-native companies like Zhipu and Minimax have shown strong stock performance post-IPO.

Their agile organizational structures and rapid iteration capabilities have created a "challenger" narrative against traditional giants, further intensifying market concerns about the lagging AI risks of large companies.

She used Google's experience as an analogy.

She recalled that before Google launched Gemini 2.5, the market was once very pessimistic, believing that Google, despite holding a treasure trove of technology, could not produce a leading model, leading to prolonged stock price weakness.

It wasn't until the strong debut of Gemini 2.5 and subsequent products that the market re-recognized Google's full-stack self-research capabilities, causing its valuation logic to reverse in an instant.

"I think in the future, if the model capabilities of Hang Seng Tech heavyweight stocks like TENCENT and Alibaba can cause a significant reversal and shift in market expectations, then their stock prices may also experience a so-called 'Google moment'," she stated.

The accumulated advantages of large companies in scenarios, data, and capital are undeniable; the key lies in whether they can deliver a large model product that convinces the market.

Structural Opportunities in Hong Kong

Notably, the weakness of the Hang Seng Tech Index has not overshadowed the structural bright spots within the Hong Kong market.

She specifically mentioned that hardware stocks like Lenovo Group have performed very strongly recently due to concepts like AIPC.

Furthermore, Hong Kong-listed tech companies that went public this year, including chip companies and model companies, have also shown impressive stock performance post-listing.

"If you only look at the index, it seems the Hong Kong stock market has performed poorly this year; but if you look at these newly listed Hong Kong tech companies, their stock performance remains very strong," she noted.

She believes that one can still "find many pure tech plays" in the Hong Kong market.

On one hand, if the existing platform companies can deliver on their AI capabilities, the room for valuation repair is substantial.

On the other hand, the newly listed tech leaders themselves possess industry representativeness and deserve market attention and investment.

Overall, the divergence of the Hang Seng Tech Index is not a systemic risk but a structural differentiation, with the key to recovery lying in the verification of the AI capabilities of its heavyweight constituents.