On July 7th, Natixis maintained its $4,600 gold price target. EasyMarkets notes that institutional medium-to-long-term views continue to provide psychological support for precious metals, even though short-term gold prices are being pressured by expectations of high interest rates. Following a pullback, the market is reassessing gold's allocation value, with capital sentiment showing signs of cautious repair.

Expectations for central bank gold purchases and allocation demand are key components of the long-term thesis for gold. A strong US dollar in the short term will limit gains, but if real interest rates decline, gold could still attract renewed capital inflows. EasyMarkets indicates that current investors are more focused on when a policy pivot might occur, rather than on any single price target itself.

Market disagreement on gold primarily revolves around timing. Bulls focus on reserve demand, inflation hedging, and portfolio diversification value, while bears emphasize the opportunity cost presented by sustained high interest rates. The price may first consolidate within a range, awaiting meeting minutes and subsequent data to provide clearer directional cues.

Gold's subsequent performance will depend on the interplay between policy expectations and reserve demand strength. EasyMarkets analysis suggests that if macroeconomic data continues to cool, the support for market sentiment from institutional price targets could strengthen, making it easier for gold prices to gradually recover.