Anthropic is moving toward an unprecedented market milestone. Multiple investors anticipate the AI startup will launch an initial public offering this autumn at a valuation of $2 trillion or higher, surpassing SpaceX to become the largest IPO in history.

According to the Financial Times, six shareholders of Anthropic informed the outlet that the company's rapidly expanding revenue will support a valuation more than double its current level in the planned fall listing.

Investors project that the maker of the Claude model will generate annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of 2026, representing a more than tenfold increase from early 2026. If realized, this forecast would deliver tens of billions of dollars in paper gains for early backers of the five-year-old company.

However, this record-breaking IPO faces significant uncertainties: mounting competitive pressure and ongoing tensions between Anthropic and the U.S. government.

According to two informed investors, export controls imposed by the Commerce Department on Anthropic's flagship model caused a slowdown in the company's overall revenue growth in June. Sentiment in public markets toward the AI boom has also become more cautious, leaving the final pricing that can support this valuation an open question.

The Rationale Behind a $2 Trillion Valuation: High Revenue Growth as the Core Support

The central basis for Anthropic investors betting on a high valuation lies in the company's extraordinary revenue growth rate.

Investors project that Anthropic's annualized revenue will increase more than tenfold within 2026, reaching $100 billion to $120 billion. This uses the company's standard annualized metric, which extrapolates full-year sales from recent actual performance.

"If Anthropic is growing at 800% annually, you'd think they should be priced at a minimum of 30 times revenue under a very low valuation multiple," one investor stated. "That implies a $3 trillion company."

Currently, publicly traded companies seen as AI beneficiaries—such as data intelligence firm Palantir and cloud service provider Nebius—trade at price-to-sales ratios of around 55 times this year. Anthropic has no directly comparable listed U.S. stock, but investors have used these benchmarks to build their own financial models, arriving at a valuation range above these peers.

Anthropic announced in May that its annualized revenue had already surpassed $47 billion, and in June, it filed IPO paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company is currently in a quiet period, limiting public disclosure of its financial performance.

Surpassing OpenAI, but Friction with the U.S. Government

Anthropic has made notable progress in the competitive landscape this year. The company has maintained a lead in model performance, releasing several new models that outperform competitors, while focusing its business strategy on enterprise client sales.

Venture capital funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors have injected nearly $100 billion into the company in 2026. In May, Anthropic's valuation surpassed OpenAI for the first time, reaching $965 billion after accounting for the latest funding round.

Data from payment company Ramp indicates that Anthropic's market share among U.S. enterprise clients increased last month.

However, challenges are also mounting. Anthropic has had multiple clashes with the Trump administration and remains in litigation with the U.S. Department of Defense, which earlier this year classified Anthropic as a supply chain risk.

In June, the Commerce Department imposed export controls on Anthropic, forcing it to temporarily remove its flagship models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, a move that unsettled some clients reliant on these products.

Cost Pressures and Competitive Impact on Pricing Power

Pricing represents another significant pressure point for Anthropic's business model.

According to data from AI model analysis firm Artificial Analysis, the usage cost of Anthropic's leading market model is more than double that of OpenAI's flagship model, while open-source models, which have seen substantial performance improvements this year, cost only a fraction of the former.

Enterprise clients have become increasingly sensitive to the cost of top-tier models. Analysts at Ramp note that businesses are "hitting the ceiling on AI spending" and shifting to cheaper alternatives. Some companies have even retracted internal directives urging employees to maximize AI usage.

In response, an Anthropic investor who also holds stakes in OpenAI and SpaceX commented: "Challenges are easy to list, but the company consistently remains number one in performance, market positioning, and the exposure users seek." SpaceX completed its listing in June at a valuation of $1.77 trillion.