Abstract
Trip.com Group Limited will report its first-quarter 2026 earnings after the close of U.S. trading on Wednesday, June 24 (Eastern Time). This preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, and earnings per share, reviews last quarter’s performance, and evaluates key business drivers and risks shaping this quarter’s outcome, alongside the prevailing stance from institutional analysts.
Market Forecast
Q1 of fiscal year 2026, revenue is forecast at RMB 15.84 billion, up 14.73% year over year, with EBIT expected at RMB 4.42 billion, up 19.02%, and EPS projected at 6.10, up 9.20%; consensus implies steady profitability with no explicit gross margin or net margin guidance. The company’s core travel services segment remains the focus, with continued momentum in booking volumes and international recovery; online travel services is the most promising area with revenue leadership of 62.41 billion RMB last quarter and broad-based growth year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Trip.com Group Limited delivered revenue of 15.40 billion RMB, a gross profit margin of 78.96%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.28 billion RMB with a net profit margin of 27.80%, and adjusted EPS of 4.97, rising 14.25% year over year. Management highlighted resilient domestic demand and improving outbound travel that supported both revenue and margin quality. The main business of travel services remained the anchor with revenue of 62.41 billion RMB for the last reported period, benefiting from healthy booking trends and elevated user engagement.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Core travel services
Trip.com Group Limited’s core travel services are expected to extend growth as domestic travel demand remains solid and outbound travel continues to normalize. The mix has been skewing toward higher-value segments such as premium accommodations and packaged itineraries, which supports take rates and monetization per order. Operational efficiency from scaled marketing and technology-driven conversion continues to underpin margins, suggesting that even moderate top-line growth can translate into solid operating leverage this quarter.
Most promising business: Online travel services with outbound recovery
International and cross-border bookings form a key pillar for incremental growth as airline capacity and visa processing normalize. The forecast improvement in EBIT outpacing revenue suggests favorable mix and disciplined expense control, consistent with rising cross-border transaction volumes that typically carry better monetization. With last quarter’s travel services revenue base of 62.41 billion RMB and demonstrated double-digit year-over-year momentum, the online travel channel remains positioned to capture recovery in both Asia outbound routes and returning long-haul demand.
Stock-price drivers this quarter
Share performance this quarter is likely to hinge on revenue durability relative to the 14.73% year-over-year consensus, with particular sensitivity to cross-border booking growth and air ticketing take rates. Margin commentary will matter: investors will track whether the strong 78.96% gross margin and 27.80% net margin can be held as marketing spending normalizes into peak travel season. Guidance color on second-half travel demand, international capacity, and user acquisition efficiency could shift expectations on full-year EPS trajectory.
Analyst Opinions
Market commentary skews bullish overall, emphasizing continued double-digit revenue growth, EBIT outperformance versus revenue, and manageable competitive intensity. Well-followed institutions highlight that EPS growth in the high single digits alongside teens revenue growth indicates balanced expansion without overreliance on promotions. The majority view expects Trip.com Group Limited to meet or modestly exceed revenue and EBIT forecasts, citing resilient travel demand and improving international corridors, while watching for prudent marketing spend to protect margins.