Data on offline consumption from the State Information Center shows that in April, the amount spent via offline consumption payments increased by 1.7% year-on-year. Spending on goods rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with faster growth seen in categories such as electronics (7.6%), pharmaceuticals and medical equipment (5.7%), and general merchandise (2.9%). Spending on services grew by 0.4% year-on-year, with transportation services (6.7%), catering services (5.1%), and education services (4.0%) showing relatively strong growth.

Recent developments highlight the accelerated cultivation of new quality productive forces across multiple sectors, from production to investment, strengthening the economy's endogenous growth drivers. Examples include the official commencement of the main construction for Unit 4 of the CGN Guangdong Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant, the domestic production of key components for the world's largest single-aperture radio telescope "China Sky Eye," and the completion of production test flights for the fourth batch-produced AG600 "Kunlong" large amphibious aircraft independently developed in China.

While China's Q1 economic growth exceeded expectations, a decline in key March indicators has heightened market focus on April's economic performance. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release April's macroeconomic data on May 18. Institutional analysis suggests that the disruptive effect of the later timing of the Spring Festival holiday has largely dissipated. Driven by export resilience and a lower base for some indicators from the same period last year, key economic metrics such as industrial production and consumption are expected to show improvement in April.

The latest "CBN Chief Economists Confidence Index" stands at 50.4, remaining above the 50-point expansion-contraction threshold for the tenth consecutive month. Economists believe that while external risks persist, China's economy will maintain its resilience in the second quarter under supportive policies.

A meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 28 noted that China's economy had started the year on a solid footing, with main indicators surpassing expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. It also acknowledged existing challenges, stating that the foundation for sustained and stable economic improvement needs further consolidation. The meeting emphasized the need to bolster confidence and implement more forceful and practical measures in economic work.

**Industrial Production Resilience Remains Supported** The average forecast from economists surveyed for the year-on-year growth of industrial value-added in April is 5.8%, slightly higher than the 5.7% recorded in March.

Looking at leading indicators, the April Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.3%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, but still within expansion territory. The production sub-index for April was 51.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from March, marking its second consecutive month above 51%.

From an industrial structure perspective, the production index for equipment manufacturing rose above 53%, and the production index for high-tech manufacturing also climbed to a favorable level above 52%. The trend of these indices indicates that new growth drivers continue to maintain stable and sound momentum, providing strong support for high-quality manufacturing development and export structure upgrading.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that industrial production continued to grow in April. However, influenced by a marginal decline in new orders and weakening sentiment in some mid- and upstream industries, the sequential growth rate is expected to have moderated slightly. Due to a lower base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate is projected to rebound from 5.7% to around 6%.

A CICC macroeconomic research report stated that year-on-year growth rates for high-frequency operating rate data across major industries were mixed. Operating rates in some chemical sectors declined due to energy supply impacts, but overall, industrial production resilience continues to be supported by exports. Considering the lower base from the same period last year, it is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value-added in April may have risen slightly to 5.8%.

**Consumer Market Vitality Unlocked** With policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods gaining traction, and the combination of spring breaks for primary and secondary schools in many regions with the Qingming Festival holiday activating the spring tourism market, consumer activity showed signs of release. The average forecast from surveyed economists for the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in April is 2.0%, higher than the 1.7% recorded in March.

Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist at Industrial Bank, noted that, influenced by base effects, year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to have edged up in April. Regarding travel, spring breaks for schools in many areas boosted cultural, tourism, and catering consumption. However, the number of domestic flights operated in April turned negative year-on-year, likely due to rising aviation fuel costs. Notably, the average market price of gasoline in April increased by 5.9% month-on-month, with the year-on-year growth rate expanding to 23.9%, boosting retail sales of petroleum and related products. Concurrently, the lower base from April last year suggests the year-on-year reading for total retail sales likely saw a slight rebound.

Data from the State Information Center shows that in April, the amount spent via offline consumption payments increased by 1.7% year-on-year. Spending on goods rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with faster growth seen in categories such as electronics (7.6%), pharmaceuticals and medical equipment (5.7%), and general merchandise (2.9%). Spending on services grew by 0.4% year-on-year, with transportation services (6.7%), catering services (5.1%), and education services (4.0%) showing relatively strong growth.

Payment data from Shouqianba, reflecting the vitality of small and medium-sized merchants, showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in April, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Within this, spending on goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points, while spending on services grew by 2.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points.

Automobiles represent a major component of consumption, accounting for about one-tenth of total retail sales. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in April, automobile production and sales reached 2.575 million and 2.526 million units respectively, representing month-on-month declines of 11.7% and 12.9%, and year-on-year declines of 1.7% and 2.5%. For the January-April period, although automobile production and sales saw year-on-year declines of 5.5% and 4.8% respectively, the rate of decline narrowed compared to the first quarter.

Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of CAAM, analyzed that the automotive industry is in a policy transition cycle. Previous industry support policies have been in place for two years, with their marginal effects gradually diminishing. The short-term data decline is a normal market phenomenon. China's automobile exports continued rapid growth in April, providing stable support to the overall market. Relatively speaking, the domestic demand market still requires improvement and stimulation.

**Investment Growth Expected to Stabilize** The survey results show economists' average forecast for the growth rate of fixed asset investment in April is 1.7%, unchanged from the figure published for March. The average forecast for the cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment from January to April is -11.1%.

Wen Bin analyzed that overall, while the sales side of the real estate market has shown signs of stabilization compared to earlier periods, and land markets in core cities have seen marginal improvement, the momentum for recovery in nationwide real estate investment and construction remains weak. The downward pressure on real estate development investment has not significantly eased. He expects the cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for January-April may further widen to around -11.5%.

Lu Ting, Chief China Economist at Nomura, believes that due to the later timing of the Spring Festival holiday this year, post-holiday construction resumption was correspondingly delayed. Historical patterns show that infrastructure investment typically accelerates after the holiday, which could push the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first four months to slightly accelerate to 1.8%.

In April, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with relevant departments, organized and issued the second batch of the 2026 "Dual Focus" construction project list. It allocated 216.8 billion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds to support 336 major projects, involving key areas such as artificial intelligence and urban underground pipeline network construction and renovation. Combined with the previously allocated 389.7 billion yuan, the cumulative funds arranged for "Dual Focus" construction this year total 606.5 billion yuan, accounting for 76% of the annual 800 billion yuan target, with the allocation pace significantly faster than last year.

Investment in key sectors is accelerating. For example, data from China State Railway Group shows that from January to April this year, railway construction progressed with high quality and efficiency. National railway fixed asset investment completed reached 200.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, effectively playing a radiating and driving role and injecting new momentum into regional economic and social development.

Investment momentum in frontier sectors remains strong, with digital infrastructure investment activity growing rapidly. Data from the State Information Center shows that in April, capital investment amounts in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots increased by 175.2% year-on-year. The winning bid amounts for infrastructure projects in areas like data, computing power, and networks grew by 61.7% year-on-year.

Geng Dewei, Associate Researcher at the Big Data Development Department of the State Information Center under the NDRC, stated that currently, investment focus is accelerating its shift from traditional fields to new tracks. Sectors like artificial intelligence demonstrate strong capital absorption capacity, and digital infrastructure investment activity is growing rapidly, activating new economic growth drivers.

Benefiting from the government's continuous optimization of industrial policies and accelerated deployment of projects in frontier areas, the market is closely monitoring industrial trends and proactively following up with investments. This synergy is driving accelerated investment concentration towards new tracks, injecting strong momentum into the development of new quality productive forces.