Agri-Futures Daily Report: Protein Meal and Oils Slide, Hog Futures Extend Losses, Egg Prices Recover on School Demand

Deep News
13 hours ago

On Monday, CBOT soybeans settled lower, pressured by falling crude oil prices, though strong export demand for U.S. soybeans limited the downside. The Pro Farmer crop tour projected U.S. soybean yields could reach 53.3 bushels per acre, a record level. U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 420,000 tonnes, in line with market expectations. Post-market crop data showed that as of August 23, the U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating stood at 60%, below the expected 61% and last week's 61%. Pod setting reached 91% and leaf dropping 6%, both above the five-year averages. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of August surpassed last year's levels. On the domestic front, protein meal followed external markets lower, with funds closing positions accelerating the decline. The tug-of-war between near-term and far-term contracts continues, with market attention on fund flows.

In the oils sector, BMD palm oil fell on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak, as weaker U.S. soybean oil pressured the market and expectations for U.S. soybean oil biodiesel demand turned softer. U.S. soybean oil and Canadian canola declined, weighed by weaker crude oil and ample oilseed supply. Earlier shipping data showed Malaysian palm oil exports for August 1-20 fell between 13.2% and 5.5% month-on-month. High-frequency data indicated Malaysian palm oil production also declined during August 1-20. With both output and exports retreating, market expectations for August inventory pressure eased. Domestically, oils retreated, with rapeseed oil leading the decline as funds exited rapeseed oil, while palm oil still saw capital inflows. The market style is shifting as funds adjust positions. Oils may struggle to escape the pattern of weak near-term and strong far-term contracts in the short run, with continued attention on the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation and oilseed consumption.

Turning to hogs, hog futures extended their decline on Monday, with the main 2611 contract falling 1.8% day-on-day to settle at 12,030 yuan per tonne. In the spot market, data from Zhuochuang showed the national average hog price at 11.12 yuan per kg, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day, while the benchmark delivery area in Henan saw prices at 11.26 yuan per kg, down 0.14 yuan. Prices in Guangdong, Sichuan, Liaoning, and Shandong were flat. Farmers' willingness to sell has increased slightly, but downstream demand has struggled to keep pace, leading to modest price declines in some regions. After a period of sustained correction, spot hog prices stabilized somewhat yesterday, while futures continued to pull back. Market attention now turns to spot price trends and shifts in market sentiment.

For eggs, futures corrected on Monday, with the main 2610 contract falling 1.23% to close at 3,787 yuan per 500 kg, still maintaining a range-bound pattern. Spot data from Zhuochuang showed the national average egg price at 5.22 yuan per jin, up 0.08 yuan from the previous day. Among producing areas, Ningjin's pink-shell eggs rose 0.15 yuan to 5.15 yuan per jin, and Heishan's brown-shell eggs gained 0.1 yuan to 5 yuan per jin. In consuming areas, Puxi's brown-shell eggs increased 0.1 yuan to 5.45 yuan per jin, and Guangzhou's brown-shell eggs rose 0.1 yuan to 5.4 yuan per jin. Boosted by pre-school stocking demand, spot egg prices have resumed their uptrend, maintaining a firm overall tone, while futures continue to fluctuate within a wide range. Focus remains on how demand changes affect spot prices, with futures monitoring market sentiment.

In corn, futures rose on increased open interest on Monday, with the weighted contract's positions continuing to climb, and corn and starch futures maintaining a firm performance. Over the weekend, northeastern corn prices moved in a narrow range with slight fluctuations, as traders faced a balance between price support and shipping pressure. Market focus is gradually shifting toward the growth of the new crop corn, awaiting the new grain listing window. In North China, corn prices continued to adjust narrowly over the weekend, with traders' shipping pace relatively stable and spring corn supply gradually increasing. Downstream enterprises showed lukewarm purchasing interest, sticking to just-in-time procurement amid a cautious sentiment. Supply and demand remain broadly balanced, keeping prices in a narrow adjustment range in the short term. In the sales regions, corn market prices adjusted narrowly over the weekend, with limited upside or downside. Enterprises are focused on consuming inventories and fulfilling long-term contracts, with weak intentions for large-scale restocking. Formula substitution continues, compressing corn procurement volumes. The sales region corn market is likely to maintain a narrow, range-bound pattern in the near term. Overall, capital inflows into the agricultural products sector have increased recently, driving commodity futures higher in tandem. Corn futures have shown strength under the influence of funds. Going forward, attention will be on actual corn transaction volumes and the arrival of new grain, with a focus on farmers' selling intentions once the new crop hits the market.

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