Everbright Securities Company Limited has released a research report analyzing the current state of the transportation sector. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, with various parties engaged in intense strategic competition. Event-driven factors are currently influencing stock price volatility. Looking at the medium term, however, low fleet growth rates, coupled with geopolitical instability leading to panic buying, vessel diversions, and the development of alternative transit routes, are all factors that could stabilize or even drive freight rates higher.
Second-quarter profit reports from express delivery companies that have already issued preliminary earnings announcements all show significant year-on-year growth, validating the view that the benefits from an "anti-involution" push to repair pricing are accelerating their flow to the bottom line. As the lock-up period for production areas is extended to August, the sustainability and intensity of this year's "anti-involution" trend are likely to exceed expectations, which is expected to drive sequential price increases for each express delivery company. Overall, supported by rising oil costs, normalized regulatory oversight, and a bottom-up push for higher prices, the trend for unit prices is clearly positive. The brokerage firm is bullish on the "Tongda" system companies achieving both market share and profit growth.
Aviation: Summer Travel Demand Accelerates, but Ticket Price Recovery Remains Weak
In June 2026, the industry-wide ASK decreased by 2% year-on-year, while civil aviation passenger traffic fell by 7%. The passenger load factor was up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. During the first 25 days of the 2026 summer travel season, the average airfare was RMB 833, down 0.8% from the same period in 2025 and 6.8% lower than the same period in 2019. Passenger volume was 3.1% higher than in 2025 and 16.7% higher than in 2019. The year-on-year decline in ticket prices has widened, but passenger volume has increased. The report suggests that although ticket prices were weak at the start of the summer season, given the delayed start of travel demand and high load factors, passenger traffic is expected to continue its steady recovery. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and ticket prices. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rising 37% year-on-year to USD 94 per barrel this week. The potential impact of geopolitical developments on aviation fuel costs needs to be monitored.
Tanker Shipping: Medium-Term Supply-Demand Mismatch Remains the Largest Upward Driver for the Sector
Risks are simultaneously escalating in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea this week. The US military has conducted multiple days of airstrikes on targets in Iran, putting renewed pressure on the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi group has attacked two Saudi oil tankers, causing some VLCCs and other commercial vessels to turn back, halt, or alter their routes. With the Strait of Hormuz constrained, the port of Yanbu has become a critical alternative route for Saudi crude oil exports. If export volumes from Yanbu remain largely stable but passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains restricted, Asian-bound crude oil may need to be routed via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline into the Mediterranean before diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. This, combined with the need for VLCCs to lighter, transship, and reload, would significantly extend voyage distances and turnaround times. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East is highly uncertain, with intense competition among various stakeholders. Event-driven factors are causing stock price fluctuations. However, for the medium term, low fleet growth, geopolitical instability driving panic buying, vessel diversions, and the development of alternative transit routes are all factors that could stabilize and even push freight rates higher.
Express Delivery: "Anti-Involution" Sustainability and Intensity Could Exceed Expectations; Leading Companies See Dual Growth in Market Share and Profit
From July 13 to July 19, the volume of parcels collected by the postal express delivery sector increased by 8% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, while the volume of parcels delivered rose by 7% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month. Year-on-year growth rates have been trending higher for four consecutive weeks. YTO Express Group has announced a plan to repurchase shares worth between RMB 30 million and RMB 50 million for use in employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives. Second-quarter profit reports from express delivery companies that have issued preliminary earnings announcements all show significant year-on-year growth, confirming that the benefits from the "anti-involution" push to repair pricing are accelerating their flow to the bottom line. With the lock-up period for production areas extended to August, the sustainability and intensity of this year's "anti-involution" trend are likely to exceed expectations. This is expected to drive further sequential price increases for each express delivery company. Overall, supported by rising oil costs, normalized regulatory oversight, and a bottom-up push for higher prices, the trend for unit prices is clearly positive. The report is bullish on the "Tongda" system companies achieving both market share and profit growth.
Logistics: Mongolian Coking Coal Prices Continue to Recover; China-US Cross-Border Demand Grows Rapidly; Air Cargo Freight Rates Remain Firm
Year-to-date, the Gandan Qimodu port has seen a total of 205,000 trucks pass through, a 51% increase year-on-year. The cumulative import and export cargo volume reached 29.9908 million tonnes, a 56% increase year-on-year. The average short-haul freight rate for this week was RMB 71 per tonne, up 9% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. The yard prices for raw coal and washed coal have increased by 27% and 25% year-on-year, respectively. Combined with supply constraints both domestically and internationally and an upward shift in the energy price center, Mongolian coal volumes and prices are expected to remain at high levels in the second half of the year. This week, air cargo volume from Asia-Pacific to the US increased by 3% week-on-week and 15% year-on-year. Spot freight rates were flat week-on-week but rose 36% year-on-year, demonstrating strong demand resilience. Driven by the dual impact of the Middle East conflict and the surge in AI demand, air cargo freight rates in the first half of 2026 increased by 17% year-on-year and are expected to rise by 5% to 15% for the full year.
Risk Analysis
Demand decline, policy changes, geopolitical risks, and exchange rate fluctuations.