Approximately 15 minutes before former President Trump posted about Iran negotiations, a large trade with a notional value of $580 million occurred in the crude oil market, raising strong suspicions of insider trading. According to a report, between 6:49 and 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, around 6,200 Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts changed hands within a single minute.

Simultaneously, trading volume in S&P 500 mini futures saw a sudden surge, breaking the previously quiet pre-market activity. Just 15 minutes later, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social stating that "productive talks" had recently taken place between the US and Iran. This immediately triggered a significant sell-off in global energy markets, while S&P 500 index futures and European stock markets jumped.

The highly suspicious timing of the trade has unsettled several hedge funds. Multiple industry professionals noted this is another recent instance of unusually large trades appearing just before an official US government announcement, fueling growing concerns about information leaks.

Based on calculations from financial data, the roughly 6,200 Brent and WTI contracts were traded concentrated in the 27 seconds leading up to 6:50 AM. Shortly after, the price of S&P 500 index futures also jumped within seconds, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. Trump's post at 7:04 AM announced "productive dialogue" between the US and Iran, causing a sharp decline in global energy markets as investors rapidly unwound bets on continued conflict.

Many market participants expressed high alert over the timing. A market strategist at a US brokerage stated, "It's difficult to prove causality... but you have to wonder who was so aggressively selling futures contracts just 15 minutes before Trump's post." A hedge fund portfolio manager with 25 years of market experience was more direct: "From my intuition observing markets, this is abnormal. There was no major data Monday morning, no Fed speeches worth front-running. For a session with no event risk, this was an unusually large trade... Someone just made a lot of money."

Tim Skirrow, Derivatives Director at energy consultancy Energy Aspects, offered a more cautious perspective. He said trading volume for Brent and WTI during that period was "higher than typically expected, but not excessively abnormal," adding that recent weeks had seen "significant capital inflows" from funds into the Brent futures and options market. "Given the price reaction, nearly everyone was long, which is almost a prerequisite for triggering such a sharp move," he added.

In response to external质疑, White House spokesperson Kush Desai denied any wrongdoing. He stated, "The White House does not tolerate any government officials using insider information for illegal profit. Any suggestion, without evidence, that officials are engaged in such activities is baseless and irresponsible reporting."

The incident did not end there. Later on Monday, Iranian officials denied that any negotiations with the US had taken place, calling the reports "false news" used to manipulate financial and oil markets. This series of events has intensified market worries about information asymmetry. Several hedge funds pointed out that large trades appearing before US government announcements are not an isolated case in recent months, with energy advisors also noting several unusually timed block trades. A trader at a large hedge fund said these recurring anomalous trades have created "a considerable degree of frustration" among investors.