【Tin】 On Monday, the main Shanghai tin contract SN2606 initially rose before falling back during the day, with its overnight trading center shifting higher; LME tin also showed relative strength. In the spot market, it was reported that small-brand tin was quoted at par to a premium of around 400 yuan per tonne for June delivery, while Yunnan-character tin carried a premium of approximately 400-800 yuan per tonne for June. Yunnan Tin was quoted at a premium of about 800-1200 yuan per tonne for June. According to SMM data, as of last Friday, social inventories stood at 11,044 tonnes, an increase of 2,599 tonnes from April 30th. The operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces were 64.8%, up by 2.07 percentage points from April 30th.

Overall, the US-Iran ceasefire talks have reached a stalemate, and the US dollar has stabilized after its decline. In global tin resources, Peru supplies 33,000 tonnes, accounting for approximately 11.38% of the total. Peru's issuance of an energy crisis emergency decree provided a slight boost to market sentiment. On the consumption side, performance is diverging: traditional consumption remains relatively subdued, while growth in emerging sectors has slowed though expectations remain favorable. Poor price transmission along the industrial chain, combined with holiday effects, led to a significant increase in tin ingot inventories, which is restraining the upward momentum of futures prices. In the short term, tin prices are fluctuating with market sentiment. Macroeconomic uncertainties continue to cause disturbances. Coupled with futures prices approaching the upper bound of a wide trading range, caution is advised against chasing rallies.

【Nickel】 On Monday, the main Shanghai nickel contract rebounded, while LME nickel rose to around $19,300 per tonne, showing strength. On the macro front, the People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy report stated it will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, closely monitor the impact of imported inflation, and appropriately manage the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices. From a fundamental perspective, Jinchuan nickel's premium rose to 1,200 yuan per tonne yesterday, while imported nickel was at a discount of 600 yuan per tonne. The ex-factory price for high-grade nickel pig iron (10%-12% Ni) was 1,148.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2.5 yuan per tonne from the previous day.

On the policy front, according to the new pricing formula announced by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, which separately prices elements like cobalt, iron, and chromium in nickel ore, the comprehensive cost of nickel ore is further pushed higher. From a cost perspective, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed. A shortage of sulfur supply may trigger large-scale production cuts at Indonesian MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) plants. Given that approximately 75% of Indonesia's sulfur relies on imports from the Middle East, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz significantly impacts sulfur supply. Moreover, global sulfuric acid supply is tightening, with few short-term alternatives for raw materials. Currently, most Indonesian MHP enterprises have inventories only sufficient until May, and some plants may experience substantial production cuts due to raw material shortages.

The US-Iran ceasefire talks have improved macroeconomic sentiment. Expectations that Trump's anticipated visit to China may lead to a thaw in Sino-US relations, coupled with the Bank of Japan's sale of US Treasury bonds causing the US dollar index to retreat, have boosted the metals market. Fundamentally, sulfur supply from the Middle East faces bottlenecks, and most Indonesian MHP enterprises may see significant production cuts due to raw material shortages. Although Indonesia's mining minister indicated a delay in implementing plans to raise mineral royalty fees and export tariffs, the ESDM's revision of the nickel ore HPM pricing formula has essentially increased the comprehensive cost of nickel ore. Nickel prices are expected to transition into a pattern of volatile upward movement.