Spring peanut market entry lags, prices may face downward pressure as supply accelerates

Deep News
10 hours ago

Hot topics, self-selected stocks, data center, market trends, and simulated trading clients are all available on the platform. According to Zhuochuang Information peanut market analyst Yan Lin, the 2026 production season's new peanuts are gradually entering the market, but starting from mid-to-late August, periodic rainy weather in Henan production areas as well as Jiangxi and Hubei regions has slowed the pace of market entry. This has provided price support for old-crop peanuts. As supply gradually increases, new peanut prices may trend slightly weaker.

The new spring peanut market entry has been slow, with opening prices remaining rational. In early August, a small volume of new peanuts began hitting the market in Jiangxi, with the listing time slightly delayed compared to the previous year. Periodic rainfall in the first half of the month kept the pace of market entry consistently slow. In the Hubei region, new peanuts started appearing in small quantities around mid-month, but typhoon-induced rainfall disrupted the progress. In Nanyang and Zhoukou areas of Henan, small volumes began listing around August 10, yet typhoon conditions slowed the process. After last week's rainfall subsided, soil moisture remained high this week, limiting the volume of peanuts being dug up, and forecasts indicate continued cloudy and light rain conditions through the week. As of August 19, the purchase reference price for Baisha peanut generic kernels in Jiangxi and Hubei production areas stood at 9,500 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan per ton, or 1.02%, from the initial listing period. In Nanyang, Baisha generic kernels were quoted at 9,200 yuan per ton, down 5.15% from initial listing levels, while Huaiyang large mixed kernels were at 8,100 yuan per ton, down 2.41%. The opening prices for new peanuts are at their lowest point in five years, and traders are not chasing highs blindly, which has narrowed the pace of price declines compared to previous years. The slow market entry has also given old-crop peanuts more time for consumption, with northeast producing areas showing a price-firming mentality this week. As of August 19, the reference price for Liaoning Baisha refined rice with 8-sieve screening was 8,850 yuan per ton, up 2.91% from the previous week, while downstream markets made small replenishment purchases at lower levels.

Oil mills have sufficient procurement from the previous season, and wholesale markets are purchasing on an as-needed basis. Currently, most oil mills have suspended procurement, with only a few factories processing the tail end of old-crop contract deliveries and imported contracts. In the 2025/26 production season, oil mills had ample raw material procurement. Due to poor peanut quality in Henan and Shandong during the previous season, prices entered a low range, with oil-material prices at a five-year low. This has helped reduce crushing costs for oil mills, and the continued consumption of oil materials has also provided some support to production area prices. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, some large-scale oil mills procured approximately 1.3952 million tons of raw materials in the 2025/26 season, up 28.60% year-on-year. With a relatively loose raw material supply, overall peanut oil supply is expected to be sufficient, and market participants are watching how this affects oil mill procurement enthusiasm in the new season. Looking at opening prices over the past five years, the highest was in the 2023 production season, mainly due to elevated price centers in the first half of the year, which pushed old-crop kernel prices and consequently new peanut opening prices higher. In the 2025 production season, overall supply continues to expand year-on-year, new peanut opening prices are rational, and oil mill procurement costs have decreased. Under normal circumstances, oil mills will wait for peanuts from various production areas to be harvested centrally and moisture levels to improve before gradually resuming procurement, typically starting in early September. Attention should be paid to the new-season opening prices from Linyi local oil mills in late August to early September.

Wholesale markets have shown low purchasing enthusiasm since new peanuts entered the market, partly because quality aspects such as moisture content still need improvement, and partly because prices lack cost-effectiveness compared to old-crop kernels. Currently, the price gap between old and new kernels is approximately 0.90-1.40 yuan per catty, and some traders are still clearing old-crop peanut inventory. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, food processing enterprises such as mooncake manufacturers can still consume moderate amounts of old-crop kernels.

Attention should be paid to the speed of market supply and the quality of new peanuts in production areas. Recent cloudy and rainy weather in parts of Henan has not yet caused any irreversible negative impact on new peanut quality, though some sprouting has occurred in localized areas. Spring Baisha peanut yields in some areas are slightly lower than normal years, but the overall proportion is small. The summer-planted (Maicha) peanuts still require monitoring of September weather, as the listing time remains distant. Parts of Shandong are slightly dry, with weather conditions to be watched, but the impact is currently limited. Hebei is expected to see small volumes listing in late August, with recent light rainfall helping to relieve soil moisture deficits. Liaoning has seen limited rainfall recently, with some areas slightly dry, and growth conditions are being monitored. Jilin's growth conditions are currently acceptable.

Overall, spring peanut supply in Henan is not yet concentrated. Forecasts indicate continued cloudy and light rain conditions in late August, which will slow drying speeds and keep overall supply volumes low. Old-crop kernels in various production areas continue to be consumed, providing temporary support. Prices will be determined based on quality and market sentiment, and it is expected that old-crop kernel prices will remain stable at high levels in late August, with limited room for further increases. As more production areas begin listing new peanuts, prices are expected to decline slowly and steadily. The average purchase price for Henan large mixed peanut generic kernels in late August is expected to range between 7,800-8,400 yuan per ton, while Henan Baisha generic kernels are expected to average between 8,600-9,200 yuan per ton.

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