On May 29, the latest energy data continued to indicate that crude oil and refined product inventories are on a declining trend. A report from OilPrice on May 28 at 19:00 CDT showed that crude and petroleum product exports once surged to a near-record high of approximately 12.9 million barrels per day, with a four-week average reaching 5.57 million barrels per day. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stands at about 365 million barrels, with both commercial and emergency inventories declining simultaneously. The report indicated that the high level of exports temporarily alleviates supply pressures, but the ongoing thinning of inventory buffers could make the oil market more susceptible to seasonal demand fluctuations in the future. CPT Markets stated that the inventory drawdown is not limited to crude oil; gasoline and distillate stocks are also tightening, which increases the market's sensitivity to supply elasticity during the summer demand season.

Regarding price levels, CPT Markets believes the inventory reduction provides underlying support for oil prices, but recent price movements are still influenced by a combination of export levels, inventory releases, and demand expectations. If commercial inventories fall below the five-year average while product supplied maintains a year-on-year increase, the market will focus more on whether subsequent refinery operations and end-consumer demand can continue to absorb the inventory pressure.

The report shows that high export levels and the drawdown of strategic inventories are altering the structure of supply buffers. In the short term, increased outflows can alleviate localized supply tightness; however, from the perspective of inventory safety cushions, the simultaneous decline in commercial and emergency inventories reduces the market's ability to withstand demand peaks or transportation disruptions. Energy analysts believe this structure makes oil prices more prone to rapid reassessments following data releases.

Going forward, it is necessary to monitor three indicators simultaneously: commercial crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories, and the four-week average of product supplied. If seasonal demand continues to improve, oil prices may maintain a strong, volatile pattern; if the pace of inventory draws slows, prices could transition into a consolidation phase at elevated levels. Additionally, CPT Markets believes that refinery margins, transportation costs, and changes in the forward curve will also influence trading sentiment. At the current stage, it is more appropriate to judge trends based on the rhythm of data releases rather than focusing on a single inventory figure.