Thursday (October 8) saw sustained capital inflows and repeated activity in the real estate sector. Real Estate ETF Huabao (159707), which focuses on leading property developers, traded actively, with its underlying index opening lower before climbing higher, briefly surging more than 2% during the session, and although it pulled back in the afternoon, it ultimately closed in positive territory.
Among hot constituent stocks, Lujiazui hit the daily limit against the broader market trend, securing a second consecutive limit-up, while China Merchants Shekou rose more than 3%.
On the news front, the new policy on completed-home sales combined with the implementation of mortgage interest subsidies led to outstanding performance in many local property markets during the National Day holiday. For example, according to reports, during the National Day holiday, multiple developments in Shenzhen's Guangming District and Bao'an District saw visitor numbers rise about 30% compared to normal days, with average daily visits approaching 140 groups. Activity in the second-hand home market improved notably. According to monitoring by Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, from October 1 to 6 this year, second-hand home contract signings at Beike-partnered stores in Shenzhen increased 49% year-on-year.
CITIC Securities pointed out that in recent months, rents in first-tier cities have risen month-on-month, and benefiting from policy measures, an increasing number of second-hand projects have achieved rental yields matching or exceeding mortgage costs. This situation in first-tier cities is very similar to Hong Kong's situation at the end of 2024 and may be a strong signal that housing prices have bottomed out. Policies are aimed at reducing residents' homeownership burden, making buying a home increasingly cost-effective relative to renting. Investors are advised to actively embrace the new real estate cycle and are bullish on development companies and leading brokerage firms.
Finally, leading real estate companies represented by central and state-owned enterprises and high-quality developers are currently still at low valuations. As of September 30, the latest PB valuation of the CSI 800 Real Estate Index was only 0.61 times, lower than more than 94% of the time range over the past 10 years, showing clear low-valuation characteristics and potentially significant room for recovery.
Western Securities noted that many real estate stocks remain in a below-net-asset state, primarily because the balance sheets of real estate companies and residents have not yet completed their repair. If housing prices stabilize and rebound, the high debt-to-asset ratios and low PB of real estate stocks could bring greater stock price elasticity. Taking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index as an example, if housing prices rise 10%, with PB (LF) targeting a recovery above book value, the corresponding stock prices still have approximately 2 times of recovery space.
For exposure to central and state-owned enterprises and high-quality developers, it is recommended to focus on Real Estate ETF Huabao (159707). According to available information, Real Estate ETF Huabao (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, gathering leading high-quality developers in the market, with a clear advantage of concentration in top-tier players in terms of investment direction and a high proportion of central and state-owned enterprises. Against the backdrop of industry consolidation, leading real estate companies may demonstrate greater elasticity.
Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Wind, CSI Index, etc. Institutional views reference sources: CITIC Securities "Important Signal of Rental Yields Matching Mortgage Costs"; Western Securities "How Far Has Real Estate Recovery Come?" ETF fee-related notes: When investors subscribe or redeem fund shares, the subscription and redemption agent may charge a commission of no more than 0.5%, on-exchange transaction fees are subject to actual charges by securities companies, and no sales service fee is charged. Risk disclosure: Real Estate ETF Huabao passively tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index. The index base date is December 31, 2004, and the launch date is December 21, 2012. The constituent stocks of the index are adjusted in a timely manner according to the index compilation rules, and its back-tested historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. The index constituent stocks mentioned in this article are for display purposes only. Individual stock descriptions do not constitute investment advice in any form and do not represent the holdings or trading activities of any fund under the manager. The risk level of this fund as assessed by the fund manager is R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced-type (C3) and above investors. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors must be responsible for any investment decisions they make independently. In addition, any views, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice of any kind to readers, nor do they assume any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the use of the content of this article. Fund investment involves risks. Past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Fund investment requires caution. MACD golden cross signals have formed; these stocks are performing well!