The market for lithium carbonate is currently experiencing a period of indecision.

Core View: Consolidation The near-term fundamental outlook for Q3 2026 is expected to remain robust. However, market participants are divided on whether this positive trend can be sustained beyond that period. Given that expectations for end-user demand from Q4 2026 into next year are unlikely to quickly resolve this divergence in price, a period of market consolidation is a reasonable outcome. In the short term, lithium prices are anticipated to continue trading in a high range, supported by the current fundamentals. It remains advisable to monitor battery order books closely, as the actual pace of demand realization could periodically influence market sentiment.

Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices: Bearish Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices decreased by 5,000 yuan per tonne week-on-week to 155,000 yuan per tonne.

Time Spreads: Neutral No new catalysts are currently driving the term structure.

Lithium Ore - Port Inventories for Sale: Bullish As of July 10, total domestic trader lithium ore inventories and inventories available for sale stood at 99,000 tonnes and 57,000 tonnes, respectively. This represents a decrease of 3,600 tonnes and an increase of 1,000 tonnes compared to July 3.

Lithium Ore - Import Prices: Bearish Last week, the CIF prices for Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrate fell by 85 USD per tonne each, reaching 2,295 USD/tonne and 2,275 USD/tonne, respectively.

Lithium Ore - Domestic Prices: Bearish Last week, the domestic price for 5%-5.5% spodumene concentrate declined by 1,150 yuan per tonne. The domestic price for 2.0%-2.5% lepidolite concentrate fell by 500 yuan per tonne.

Lithium Carbonate - Production: Bullish Domestic lithium carbonate production last week decreased by 860 tonnes week-on-week to 24,855 tonnes. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources changed by -406, -600, +113, and +33 tonnes, respectively, reaching 14,001, 2,405, 5,079, and 3,370 tonnes.

Lithium Carbonate - Cost: Bearish The production cost for lithium carbonate using purchased spodumene concentrate fell by 6,527 yuan per tonne last week to 155,553 yuan per tonne. The cost for production using purchased lepidolite decreased by 11,538 yuan per tonne to 142,404 yuan per tonne.

Lithium Carbonate - Inventory (Including Warehoused): Bullish Regarding total inventory, as of July 9, the total sample inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,337 tonnes to 92,236 tonnes. Inventories at smelters, downstream users, and other channels fell by 1,175, 1,113, and 50 tonnes to 12,415, 50,339, and 29,482 tonnes, respectively. The large-sample total inventory decreased by 3,423 tonnes to 124,381 tonnes, with 'other' (large-sample) lithium carbonate inventory down by 1,135 tonnes to 61,627 tonnes.

In terms of registered warehouse receipts, as of July 10, the total stood at 42,067 tonnes, a decrease of 6,139 tonnes from July 3.

Ternary Cathode - Production & Inventory: Bullish As of July 9, weekly production of ternary cathode materials increased by 169 tonnes to 19,670 tonnes, while weekly inventory rose by 390 tonnes to 20,199 tonnes.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cathode - Production & Inventory: Bullish As of July 9, weekly LFP cathode production increased by 439 tonnes to 119,149 tonnes, while weekly inventory decreased by 2,430 tonnes to 136,416 tonnes.

Weekly Summary Considering the uncertainty surrounding the supply-demand balance from Q4 2026 onward, bullish momentum has weakened, leading to a consolidating and declining futures price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, weekly lithium carbonate production saw a slight reduction, with a more significant decrease observed in spodumene-sourced material, partly attributed to logistical disruptions for concentrate shipments from Zimbabwe. The arrival of future concentrate shipments warrants attention. Additionally, if the restart of the Jianxiawo project proceeds smoothly, lepidolite-sourced lithium carbonate could provide a notable supply supplement in Q4. On the demand side, downstream cathode material and battery production schedules for July continue to show month-on-month growth. The planned output increases for LFP cathodes and batteries are nearly aligned, suggesting demand may remain resilient despite the traditional off-season, providing some support for lithium prices. Overall, while near-term fundamentals for Q3 2026 are expected to stay healthy, market views on the sustainability of this trend are diverging. Given that end-demand expectations for late 2026 and beyond are unlikely to quickly translate this divergence into price action, a period of price consolidation is logical. In the short term, lithium prices are forecast to continue trading in a high range, underpinned by fundamentals. Monitoring battery order intake remains crucial, as the actual realization of demand could periodically impact market confidence.

Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet

Lithium Carbonate Prices: Futures Consolidate Lower The main contract price declined.

Last week, the main lithium carbonate futures contract price fell. The main LC2609 contract opened at 166,980 yuan/tonne and closed at 151,600 yuan/tonne. It reached a weekly high of 168,720 yuan/tonne and a low of 150,260 yuan/tonne, representing a weekly decline of 10.18%.

Spot Quotes Decline Week-on-Week; Battery/Industrial Grade Spread Unchanged

Spot prices decreased week-on-week. Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices fell by 5,000 yuan per tonne to 155,000 yuan per tonne.

Regarding price differentials, the spread between battery-grade and industrial-grade material remained unchanged at +4,000 yuan per tonne. The spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate narrowed by 250 yuan to -13,000 yuan per tonne.

Lithium Ore: Recent Spot Prices Consolidate Lower Domestic and imported lithium ore prices declined week-on-week.

Last week, both domestic and imported lithium ore spot prices fell. Specifically:

Domestic prices for 3%-4%, 4%-5%, and 5%-5.5% spodumene concentrate decreased by 800, 1,000, and 1,150 yuan per tonne to 8,775, 11,925, and 14,750 yuan/tonne, respectively. Domestic prices for 1.5%-2.0% and 2.0%-2.5% lepidolite concentrate fell by 335 and 500 yuan per tonne to 3,265 and 4,600 yuan/tonne, respectively.

CIF prices for imported 1.2%-1.5%, 2%-2.5%, and 3%-4% spodumene ore decreased by 15, 30, and 40 USD per tonne, respectively. CIF prices for Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrate each fell by 85 USD per tonne to 2,295 USD/tonne and 2,275 USD/tonne.

Total Port Lithium Ore Inventory Declines Week-on-Week

Last week, total domestic trader lithium ore inventories decreased week-on-week, while inventories available for sale increased. As of July 10, total trader inventories and inventories for sale stood at 99,000 tonnes and 57,000 tonnes, down 3,600 tonnes and up 1,000 tonnes from July 3, respectively.

According to data, regarding lithium salt plants' purchased ore inventory, as of June 2026, the total reached 458,000 tonnes, an increase of 13,000 tonnes month-on-month. Plant inventory and in-transit inventory were 363,000 tonnes and 95,000 tonnes, changing by -15,000 tonnes and +28,000 tonnes month-on-month, respectively.

Other data indicates that as of June 2026, lithium salt plant ore inventory totaled 132,984 tonnes LCE equivalent, a decrease of 4,193 tonnes LCE month-on-month. Mine-side ore inventory was 34,030 tonnes LCE, an increase of 3,230 tonnes LCE month-on-month.

Lithium Carbonate: Supply Continues to Adjust Weekly production decreased; July output is forecast to be flat month-on-month.

For weekly production, domestic lithium carbonate output last week fell by 860 tonnes to 24,855 tonnes. Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources changed by -406, -600, +113, and +33 tonnes to 14,001, 2,405, 5,079, and 3,370 tonnes, respectively. By region, weekly output in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan changed by +65, -276, and +365 tonnes to 4,140, 7,247, and 5,740 tonnes, respectively. The weekly operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 54.4%.

For monthly production, July 2026 output is forecast at 115,410 tonnes, essentially flat month-on-month with a slight increase of 90 tonnes (+0.1%). Production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling sources is projected at 62,250, 16,530, 21,940, and 14,690 tonnes, representing changes of -4,500, +2,700, +1,390, and +500 tonnes, respectively. June output reached 115,320 tonnes, up 2% month-on-month, meeting initial expectations.

Production Cost for Purchased Ore Declines

The production cost for lithium carbonate using purchased 6% Li2O spodumene concentrate decreased by 6,527 yuan per tonne to 155,553 yuan/tonne, with the profit margin falling by 3,620 yuan/tonne to -2,697 yuan/tonne.

The production cost using purchased 2.5% Li2O lepidolite concentrate fell by 11,538 yuan per tonne to 142,404 yuan/tonne, with the profit margin rising by 14,945 yuan/tonne to 6,674 yuan/tonne.

Costs for production using various recycled black mass feedstocks also declined week-on-week.

Total Inventory Declines Week-on-Week; Warehouse Receipt Volume Falls

Regarding total inventory, as of July 9, the total sample inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,337 tonnes to 92,236 tonnes. Inventories at smelters, downstream users, and other channels fell by 1,175, 1,113, and 50 tonnes to 12,415, 50,339, and 29,482 tonnes, respectively. The large-sample total inventory decreased by 3,423 tonnes to 124,381 tonnes, with 'other' (large-sample) lithium carbonate inventory down by 1,135 tonnes to 61,627 tonnes.

In terms of registered warehouse receipts, as of July 10, the total stood at 42,067 tonnes, a decrease of 6,139 tonnes from July 3.

Total Lithium Carbonate Inventory Days Decline

In terms of inventory days, as of July 9, the total upstream and downstream inventory days for lithium carbonate were 22.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days week-on-week.

Specifically, upstream (lithium salt plant) inventory days were 2.8 days (down 0.2 days), downstream (cathode material) inventory days were 13 days (down 0.2 days), and inventory days in other channels were 6.9 days (unchanged).

Cathode Materials & Electrolyte: July Production Schedules Show Continued Growth

Ternary Cathode Materials: July Schedule Up 3% Month-on-Month

Last week, ternary cathode material prices generally declined, with decreases ranging from 3,100 to 4,400 yuan per tonne.

As of July 9, weekly production of ternary cathode materials increased by 169 tonnes to 19,670 tonnes, while weekly inventory rose by 390 tonnes to 20,199 tonnes.

July production for ternary materials is forecast at 89,690 tonnes, an increase of 2,630 tonnes or 3% month-on-month. June output was 87,060 tonnes, down 1,890 tonnes or 2.12% month-on-month, below initial expectations.

From July 2 to July 8, production margins for 523-type ternary material improved by 440 yuan to -1,135 yuan/tonne, while margins for 811-type material improved by 325 yuan to 792.5 yuan/tonne.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cathode: July Schedule Up 6.8% Month-on-Month

Last week, prices for power-grade, low-end, and mid-to-high-end LFP cathode fell by approximately 2,490 to 2,510 yuan per tonne.

As of July 9, weekly LFP cathode production increased by 439 tonnes to 119,149 tonnes, while weekly inventory decreased by 2,430 tonnes to 136,416 tonnes.

July production for LFP cathode is forecast at 536,850 tonnes, an increase of 34,400 tonnes or 6.8% month-on-month. June output was 502,450 tonnes, up 13,350 tonnes or 3% month-on-month, largely in line with initial expectations.

Cobaltate Lithium & Lithium Manganate July Schedules Largely Flat Month-on-Month

July production for lithium cobalt oxide is forecast at 7,740 tonnes, up 3.3% month-on-month. June output was 7,490 tonnes, down 6.84% month-on-month.

July production for lithium manganate is forecast at 10,770 tonnes, a slight decrease of 60 tonnes or 1% month-on-month. June output was 10,830 tonnes, down 200 tonnes or 2% month-on-month, meeting initial expectations.

Electrolyte: Prices Fall Week-on-Week; June Hexafluorophosphate Schedule Forecast to Increase

Last week, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) fell by 6,000 yuan per tonne to 96,500 yuan/tonne, a week-on-week decrease of 5.9%.

July production for LiPF6 is forecast at 33,700 tonnes, up 3% month-on-month. Electrolyte production for July is forecast at 292,080 tonnes, up 5% month-on-month.

Regarding inventory days, as of June 2026, upstream and downstream inventory days for LiPF6 were 7.3 days and 11 days, representing month-on-month changes of -0.1 days and +0.4 days, respectively.

Batteries: July Battery Production Schedule Up 7% Month-on-Month

Production: July Battery Schedule Up 7%

Total battery production for July 2026 is forecast at 268.74 GWh, an increase of 17.15 GWh or 7% month-on-month. By type, ternary battery and LFP battery production are forecast at 44.07 GWh and 214.95 GWh, up 2.8 GWh (+7%) and 14.23 GWh (+7%) month-on-month, respectively. By application, production for energy storage batteries, power ternary batteries, and power LFP batteries is forecast at 85.25 GWh, 40.85 GWh, and 128.36 GWh, representing increases of 3.06 GWh (+4%), 2.7 GWh (+7%), and 11.1 GWh (+9%) month-on-month, respectively.

Regarding weekly power cell production, as of July 10, domestic weekly power cell output reached 36.1 GWh, up 1.4 GWh week-on-week. LFP cell and ternary cell weekly output were 28 GWh and 8.1 GWh, up 0.8 GWh and 0.6 GWh week-on-week, respectively.

Inventory: Domestic Total Cell Inventory Rose in May

As of May 2026, by type, domestic LFP battery and ternary battery inventories were 142 GWh and 51.7 GWh, up 1% and unchanged month-on-month, respectively. By application, as of May 2026, domestic energy storage cell, power cell (LFP), and power cell (ternary) inventories were 28.7 GWh, 113.28 GWh, and 51.65 GWh, up 3%, 2%, and 0% month-on-month, respectively.

Regarding inventory-to-sales ratios, as of May 2026, the ratios for energy storage cells, power cells (LFP), and power cells (ternary) were 0.36 months, 1.09 months, and 1.52 months, representing month-on-month changes of -0.02 months, +0.04 months, and -0.3 months, respectively.