On June 26, 2025, HIGHTIDE-B (02511) announced a plan to place shares at a 15% discount, priced at 2.21 Hong Kong dollars each, with the placement completed on July 7 of the same year, totaling 56.555 million shares and raising net proceeds of 131 million Hong Kong dollars. Notably, during the placement process, the company's stock price did not fall below the placement price but instead rose by about 8.9% cumulatively. Following the completion, the share price surged 29.35% over four trading days. On August 7, 2026, HIGHTIDE-B announced another placement of 98.71 million shares, successfully raising net proceeds of approximately 222 million Hong Kong dollars, with the stock closing up 16.84% on the day and rising 30.77% over five trading days. This raises the question: are investors speculating on arbitrage opportunities following these placements?

Since reaching a high of 4.72 Hong Kong dollars on May 5, 2025, HIGHTIDE-B shares began a nearly two-month downtrend, only stabilizing by July 30, with a maximum drawdown of 44.81%. From a technical perspective, after touching the upper Bollinger Band on April 21, the stock trended downward with the broader sector, approaching the middle band, before stabilizing and reversing with three consecutive bullish candles, driven by volume and price increases, pushing it to a short-term high. The core catalyst was the release of the 2025 annual report on April 29, which showed revenue down 73.26% year-on-year but a 54.76% reduction in R&D expenses, leading to a net loss of 245 million yuan, narrowed by 35.84%. As an unprofitable 18A company, the improved cash position was a key factor for the short-term rebound, though the stock later declined on increased volume after breaking above the upper Bollinger Band on May 4 and 5.

The subsequent decline featured a clear pattern of falling prices on shrinking volume, likely influenced by weak market sentiment and short-selling pressure. Between April and June, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell 27.65%, driven by a downturn in the innovative drug sector. From September 2025 to June 2026, the Hong Kong-listed innovative drug index dropped over 26%, while the 18A sector retreated nearly 40%. During this industry-wide correction, there was a mismatch between expanding supply of shares and declining average daily trading volume, as no new funds entered the market, leading to a sustained erosion of valuations. Even positive news for high-growth stocks prompted investors to take profits, as seen on June 10, when the Hang Seng Healthcare Index stabilized, but HIGHTIDE-B shares fell 5.13% before forming a long lower shadow, indicating a potential oversold bounce, starting a four-day rally. However, after this, the stock entered a quiet period with low trading volume until the recent discounted placement.

For an unprofitable 18A company like HIGHTIDE-B, cash flow remains a critical factor for its secondary market performance. At the end of 2025, cash on hand was 232 million yuan, down 25.22% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive annual decline. With operating expenses of 224 million yuan in the same period, the company could face a cash shortage by year-end without new funding, which is why it has turned to discounted placements for two consecutive years. The stock's rise after both placements is largely due to the intended use of proceeds and market expectations. According to the latest placement announcement, 75% of the funds will be used for the development of its core drug candidate, HTD1801, with plans to use them before 2028, a similar allocation to the previous year. This consistent focus on core drug development has garnered investor support, but the primary factor is optimism about HTD1801 itself.

In late 2025, HIGHTIDE-B reported strong results from a Phase 3 clinical trial for HTD1801, a first-in-class oral anti-inflammatory and metabolic modulator, in treating type 2 diabetes. The trial showed that after 24 weeks, HTD1801 reduced HbA1c by a least squares mean change of -1.12%, compared to -0.93% for AstraZeneca's blockbuster drug dapagliflozin, with a statistically significant difference of -0.20%. Beyond the primary endpoint, HTD1801 demonstrated advantages in multiple secondary endpoints, including greater reductions in LDL cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, and a lower need for statin therapy. It also led to a higher proportion of patients achieving HbA1c control below 7.0% and showed a more significant reduction in lipoprotein(a). The drug exhibited a good safety profile, with a serious adverse event rate of 3.8%, below the 4.4% in the dapagliflozin group, and no severe hypoglycemia events. Unlike SGLT2 inhibitors that simply promote glucose excretion, HTD1801 aims to address the root causes of unmet clinical needs in cardiorenal metabolic diseases, with multiple global clinical results supporting its "one-drug, multi-effect" profile. However, from a chemical perspective, HTD1801's core mechanism involves combining berberine and ursodeoxycholic acid through an ionic bond, which improves solubility and bioavailability. Compared to high-barrier innovative technologies like monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, or gene therapy, this improved drug may not sustain the high valuations of truly original innovations. Given that the company's P/B ratio has risen to 6.71 times, far above the industry average of 2.55 times and 92% above its one-year average, and with the RSI indicator recently hitting 84, signaling overbought conditions, investors should carefully consider whether HIGHTIDE-B can maintain its current price level.