On May 12, 2026, CSC's 2026 Mid-Year Capital Market Investment Summit was held in Shanghai. Themed "New Beginnings, New World, New Future," the conference provided a comprehensive outlook for the second half of 2026, covering global capital markets, domestic and international macroeconomic and policy landscapes, investment strategies for the A-share and overseas markets, opportunities in the bond market, strategies for major asset allocation, and development trends across major industrial chains.
Liu Cheng, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of CSC, delivered an opening speech. Keynote speakers at the main forum included Sheng Songcheng, Dean of the China Chief Economists Forum Research Institute and Senior Academic Advisor at the CEIBS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance; His Excellency Mohannad Al Nakbi, Consul General of the United Arab Emirates in Shanghai; Sabino Fornies Martinez, Minister-Counsellor of the Delegation of the European Union to China; Margit Molnar, Head of the China Desk at the OECD Economics Department; and Huang Wentao, Head of Research and Development and Chief Economist at CSC. They shared their latest insights on China's macroeconomic performance and interest rate/currency trends, China-Arab economic, trade, and investment opportunities, China-Europe relations and investment opportunities amid global changes, achieving sustainable growth through innovation, and the outlook for China's economy and capital markets. Wu Chaozhe, Member of the CSC Party Committee, Executive Committee, and Head of the Institutional Business Committee, as well as Chairman of CSC International, served as the forum moderator.
**Liu Cheng: A New Wave of Technological Revolution, with Sci-Tech Innovation Becoming the Core Focus of International Competition and Cooperation** The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's 15th Five-Year Plan. In his speech, Liu Cheng pointed out that while profound changes unseen in a century are accelerating and the global economic landscape is undergoing deep adjustments, the fundamental trend of China's long-term economic growth remains unchanged, and the pace of high-quality development in China's capital markets is steadfast. The Central Financial Work Conference explicitly called for accelerating the building of China into a financial powerhouse. For the first time, the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan includes "accelerating the building of a financial powerhouse" and "cultivating first-class investment banks and investment institutions," charting the course for the securities industry and entrusting it with a greater mission of the times.
Addressing the significant theme of "China's Opportunities in a Changing World," high-level opening-up is deemed essential. Liu Cheng stated that as a "national team" in the capital markets, CSC consistently aims to "build a world-class investment bank," adhering to the principle of both "going global" and "bringing in." On one hand, following clients' global expansion, with Hong Kong as a pivot, the firm deeply participates in capital market connectivity along the Belt and Road, helping Chinese enterprises utilize both domestic and international markets and resources. On the other hand, it actively serves the new demand of international capital to "invest in China," striving to become a strategic bridge connecting China with markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and globally, demonstrating the responsibility of a securities firm in institutional, high-level opening-up.
Opening up is not just about geographical expansion but also about the evolution of concepts and the upgrading of capabilities. Liu Cheng emphasized that in response to the new landscape, the company has proposed building a strategic system of "Three ZHI, One New, One Hua" — oriented towards "Value Investment Banking," following the path of "New Quality Investment Banking," and driven by the engine of "Digital-Intelligent Investment Banking." The goal is to accelerate the development of a client-driven new model, enhance internationalization, transform finance from a "channel-based" to an "accompanying" service, act as a long-term capital partner for enterprises, and provide comprehensive, full-chain, and lifecycle financial support for technological innovation and the construction of a modern industrial system.
Notably, CSC's Future Industry and Policy Research Institute is set to be officially inaugurated on May 13. Liu Cheng stated that as a strategic, comprehensive research platform, the institute will leverage deep professional research capabilities to articulate China's industrial story and build a high-end "resource-integrating" think tank. Its vision is to become a strategic hub connecting policy foresight, industrial evolution, and capital allocation. The institute will delve into macro-policy and full industrial chain research, focusing on strategic directions that influence the underlying logic of the future economy.
**Sheng Songcheng: Using the Certainty of High-Quality Development to Counter Various Uncertainties** From 2020 to 2025, China's GDP increased from 101.5 trillion yuan to 140.2 trillion yuan, a cumulative growth of 38.2%. Sheng Songcheng believes China's economy has shown positive changes in several aspects: First, the service sector's share continues to rise, increasing its contribution to GDP from 55.6% to 57.7%, with a contribution rate to economic growth reaching 61.4%, making domestic demand a key engine. Second, the absolute scale of industry has expanded significantly, with manufacturing showing resilience. The value-added of manufacturing grew from 26.5 trillion yuan to 34.7 trillion yuan, a 33.9% increase, and the share of high-tech manufacturing in total industrial output rose to 17.1%, indicating accelerated formation of new quality productive forces. Third, new growth drivers have notably accelerated, with sectors like information technology services nearly doubling, reflecting rapid digital transformation.
Looking ahead, he noted that appropriately accommodative monetary policy will place greater emphasis on being forward-looking, flexible, and targeted. On one hand, short-term energy shocks have limited impact on China's monetary policy. Although China is a major oil importer, the transmission of oil prices to inflation depends more on the energy structure. China's high reliance on coal, with oil accounting for only about 18%, makes it far less sensitive to oil shocks compared to Western nations. On the other hand, monetary policy should adopt a "small-step" approach, as China currently lacks the foundation for sustained, significant interest rate cuts. Commercial banks face net interest margin pressures. The interest rate elasticity of consumption and investment in China is relatively low, limiting the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating them. Reserve requirement ratio cuts are preferable to interest rate cuts.
Regarding the RMB exchange rate, he believes it may stabilize with a tendency to appreciate in the medium to long term. The global monetary system is undergoing profound restructuring. Actions by the US, such as extensive tariff use and excessive reliance on the dollar as a sanction tool, have significantly eroded international trust in the dollar, creating space for a diversified monetary system and forming a degree of market consensus. The internationalization of the RMB is entering a strategic opportunity period. A weak RMB is generally unfavorable for Chinese companies "going global" and for RMB internationalization. Historically, the rise of the US dollar's international status was often accompanied by its strength, playing the role of a strong currency during its internationalization. However, it is also necessary to avoid overly rapid and excessive RMB appreciation, maintaining its basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level.
**Huang Wentao: RMB Assets Represent a Long-Term Opportunity** Huang Wentao delivered a keynote speech titled "Outlook on China's Economy and Capital Markets." He pointed out that the world economic and international monetary systems may be moving towards "multipolarization." The rise of China essentially reflects the world moving towards multipolarity, with macro forces shifting eastward. Four aspects validate this trend: first, competitiveness in technology talent and manufacturing production; second, fiscal stamina and long-term confidence in monetary finance; third, energy resources and supply chain security and stability; and fourth, cultural appeal and future global leadership.
He emphasized that against the backdrop of an unsustainable unipolar world system, China has proposed the blueprint of Chinese modernization — firmly following the Chinese path and building a new development paradigm for China's harmonious development with the world. The 15th Five-Year Plan represents the latest "China Strategy." Investing in the strategic trend of "the East rising and the West declining" within multipolarization, investing in the "New Four Bulls" of Chinese assets, and investing in the "China Strategy" of the 15th Five-Year Plan may be the best macro asset allocation strategy for this era.
Specifically, the 15th Five-Year Plan presents four major opportunities. First, industrial construction focuses on the resurgence of global industrial policies, policy anchors, and investment opportunities. Second, technological innovation focuses on the phased recovery of total factor productivity, policy anchors, key sectors, and investment opportunities. Third, domestic demand and consumption focus on 6Ds trends and new consumption, policy anchors, and three investment themes: servitization, silver economy, and AI+. Fourth, international trade focuses on triple changes in product structure, market structure, and trade forms, along with policy anchors and investment opportunities.
"In terms of asset allocation, five trends will strengthen in 2026: the gradual approach of a low-interest-rate era, the reallocation of household assets, the acceleration of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, the revaluation of Chinese assets, and the remonetization of gold," Huang said. The long-term upward trajectory of the A-share market is driven by the "New Four Bulls": first, the bull market driven by capital inflows; second, the bull market driven by technological innovation; third, the bull market driven by institutional reforms; and fourth, the bull market driven by consumption upgrading.
Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market's advanced manufacturing sector has shown highlights, with significant capital inflows into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, power grid equipment, satellites, communications, biopharmaceuticals, and innovative drugs.
Regarding the asset allocation outlook, RMB assets represent a long-term opportunity, with bullish trends in stocks, bonds, and currency. "The multipolarization of the world economy and the East rising, West declining" is the macro trend of global economic development; the "15th Five-Year Plan" is the China strategy for major asset allocation; and the "New Four Bulls of RMB assets" is the historical opportunity at hand. It is recommended that investors increase allocation to "RMB currency anchor assets," such as gold, electricity, new energy, defense, aerospace, and core industries in 16 key areas for national strength building; and maintain a steady standard allocation to "RMB liquidity assets," such as finance, dividends, and bonds.
**Xia Fanjie: The Bull Market in A-shares Will Continue** Xia Fanjie delivered a speech titled "A-share Mid-Year 2026 Investment Strategy: Dual Bulls Driving, Index Reaching New Heights." Regarding the market trend for the second half of the year, he believes the A-share market will exhibit a structural slow-bull market, driven by structural prosperity and capital concentration. He advises investors to follow an investment strategy centered on "prosperity," focusing on two main themes: the "Computing Power Bull" and the "Recovery Bull." The AI computing power theme is far from entering a full bubble stage, with attention on the diffusion of prosperity across the entire industry chain. The "PPI-External Demand" driven "Recovery Bull" is another key theme for the year.
Specifically, he pointed out that the bull market in A-shares will continue. In terms of market rhythm and characteristics, it is more difficult to drive valuation expansion in the latter half of a bull market. The rise of the overall A-share index may slow down, showing characteristics of structural differentiation. In fact, A-share performance year-to-date has already shown clear structural characteristics, with significant divergence among Shenwan primary industries. High-prosperity sectors like AI computing power, resources, and new energy have led the market, while sectors like consumption and real estate have declined noticeably. As A-share "valuation expansion" completes, broad-based rallies are becoming increasingly rare. Sectors that can deliver on earnings growth expectations and digest valuations will attract capital, potentially leading to concentrated holdings. Of course, investors should also be mindful of trading crowding in some concentrated sectors. Short-term crowding volatility does not alter the medium-term prosperity trend, but crowded sectors may experience periodic corrections and intensified sector rotation. This can be closely tracked through crowding indicators like trading volume share and turnover rate, allowing timely adjustments. It is expected that A-shares will exhibit a structural slow-bull market, driven by structural prosperity and capital concentration. Investors are advised to follow an investment strategy centered on "prosperity," focusing on the two main themes: the "Computing Power Bull" and the "Recovery Bull."
Xia further noted that against the backdrop of rising prices and strong exports, economic recovery has become the core driver of the current bull market, while ample liquidity will continue to support A-shares. In terms of market rhythm and characteristics, the view of a volatile slow-bull market for the full year is maintained. On one hand, A-share valuations are already at historically high levels, making further expansion difficult in the latter half of the bull market. On the other hand, the market is entering a period of prosperity verification, with the rise of the overall A-share index slowing and showing structural differentiation. It is expected that A-shares will exhibit a structural slow-bull market, driven by structural prosperity and capital concentration. Investors are advised to follow an investment strategy centered on "prosperity," focusing on the two main themes: the "Computing Power Bull" and the "Recovery Bull."
Regarding sectors, he recommended focusing on: AI computing power (semiconductors, optical communication, electronic fabric/CCL, data center power supply, etc.), new energy (lithium batteries, wind power, nuclear power, energy storage, power grid), oil and gas production, coal, coal chemical industry, and non-ferrous metals. Left-side布局 could consider: petrochemicals, engineering machinery, non-bank finance, hog farming, and service consumption. Themes to watch include: sodium-ion batteries, humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, etc.
**Zhou Junzhi: Direction for Chinese Assets is Clear — Pricing China's Advantages** Zhou Junzhi delivered a speech titled "2026 Macro Mid-Year Investment Strategy: Super Cycle and China's Advantages." She believes the world is experiencing a distinctly new cycle — a "Super Cycle" under the collision of technology and geopolitics. This collision leads to profound "K-shaped divergence" in the macroeconomy, with asset pricing revolving around a "K-shaped spiral." Technology and energy, inflation and liquidity may be the intertwined main themes globally in the second half of the year. The direction for Chinese assets is very clear: pricing China's advantages.
Specifically, facing the K-shaped spiral, global asset pricing shows an interesting aspect — stocks price technology industry trends, while bonds, currencies, and commodities price the realities of traditional sectors more influenced by geopolitics. Chinese assets are also pricing the K-shaped spiral within the super cycle. However, China holds advantages in technology industries; and in countering the impacts stirred by geopolitical tensions, China still holds advantages. Therefore, within the super cycle, China exhibits strong competitiveness, termed "China's Advantages." Whether in stocks, exchange rates, or bonds, Chinese assets are undergoing a round of "China's Advantages" pricing, which is also the core anchor for Chinese assets in the second half of 2026.
Zhou pointed out that the RMB exchange rate is the asset most sensitive to China's advantages. In 2025, the emergence of Deepseek was followed by a wave of RMB appreciation driven by foreign exchange settlement and sales, with depreciation pressure beginning to subside, setting the RMB on an appreciation path. Looking ahead, the RMB has strong intrinsic appreciation drivers, with the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales being a key observation indicator. However, regarding the onshore RMB listed price itself, it may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year, as China needs a more steadily appreciating RMB amid the immense uncertainty stirred by geopolitical games.
Regarding Chinese stocks, Zhou emphasized pricing earnings inflation and China's advantages. A-shares are currently systematically pricing "China's Advantages under the Technology Super Cycle." Future A-shares still have four core directions that can most effectively carry and express the narrative logic of "China's Advantages." First, energy advantage. Energy security accompanying geopolitical games brings opportunities in new energy supply and demand. Second, supply chain advantage. Industries like chemicals and machinery equipment continue to gain market share from Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Third, national strategic leadership advantage. Comprehensive efforts in "Six Networks" construction. Fourth, technological advantage. The AI industry remains the most certain technology theme for 2026, with China's technological breakthroughs in AI accelerating their implementation.
For the bond market, she stated that risks implied by liquidity withdrawal after the second quarter should be vigilant. Interbank liquidity in China was extremely ample in the first half of the year, which was not entirely due to central bank-led easing but a coincidence of multiple factors — replacement of high-interest deposits, delayed fiscal impact, and structural shifts in credit and bills. Future liquidity is unlikely to be as loose as in February to April. As real estate sheds its financial attributes, the pricing anchor for Chinese bonds returns to inflation, which is essentially tied to exports. Being optimistic about exports and expecting China to see earnings inflation in the second half implies the need to flag risks for Chinese bonds.
**Hu Yuwei: Economic Recovery Shows Significant K-shaped Structural Divergence** Hu Yuwei delivered a speech titled "Policy Research 2026 Mid-Year Investment Strategy: Seize the Day, Move Towards the Sun." He stated that the macroeconomy in the second half will exhibit operational characteristics of "differentiated recovery, policy护航, and structural optimization." Economic recovery shows significant K-shaped structural divergence. Structurally, growth is still mainly driven by notably strong exports and policy support; the characteristics of domestic demand拉动 are not yet apparent, with retail sales growing moderately, endogenous price differentiation, and room for improvement in consumption propensity and supply-demand relations. The value-added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 12.5% year-on-year, 6.4 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size, but its share in total industrial value-added is less than 20%. The services PMI was 50.2%, only slightly above the threshold. Consumer confidence remains in a slow recovery range, with the Consumer Confidence Index at 91.6 in February, indicating significant room for improvement.
Looking ahead to the second half, as the PPI turns positive and transmits to improved corporate profitability, coupled with continued policy efforts, A-share earnings recovery is expected to accelerate. However, the profit divergence between upstream resources, export chains, technology growth sectors, and downstream consumption may further widen, making structural characteristics more prominent.
Regarding monetary and fiscal policies of market concern, Hu believes that on monetary policy, the overall基调 of appropriate accommodation remains unchanged, but the pace will be more flexible. It is estimated that one reserve requirement ratio cut will be implemented in 2026. Interest rate cuts require further changes and data support and are currently uncertain. On fiscal policy, the focus is on implementing existing存量 policies. 2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. In the first quarter, advance batches and the first batch of "Two Key" construction project lists and central budget investment plans were issued, with infrastructure investment growing 8.9% year-on-year. First-quarter sales from consumer goods trade-in programs exceeded 430 billion yuan, benefiting over 60 million people. The incremental space for fiscal policy lies in accelerating the disbursement and precise落地 of existing funds, rather than new large-scale stimulus.
Regarding investment strategy, Hu recommended布局 around four main themes: First, the consumption sector driven by domestic demand, focusing on service consumption and high-end consumption tracks like cultural tourism, medical tourism, and inbound consumption. Second, the technology sector led by innovation, focusing on core areas of new quality productive forces like AI computing power, innovative drugs, robotics, and low-altitude economy. Third, the theme of resource security and energy transition, capturing the配置 value of supply-demand mismatch品种 like gold and copper, as well as high-dividend energy assets like electricity and coal. Fourth, theme sectors catalyzed by policy and events,布局 structural opportunities brought by RMB internationalization, defense, and the reshaping of the real estate landscape. At the same time, core risks such as worsening Middle East geopolitical conflicts and extreme climate disruptions need to be警惕.
**Yao Ziwei: Domestic Economy Continues Mild Recovery, Macro Model Maintains Recommendations for Stock and Commodity Allocation** Yao Ziwei delivered a speech titled "CSC 2026 Mid-Year Global Major Asset Allocation Recommendations: Ride the Momentum, Start Anew, AI Empowers Diversified Allocation."
On macro and asset allocation, Yao believes the domestic economy continues its mild recovery, with endogenous动力 expected to gradually strengthen. Currently, it is in the fourth stage of the Pring Cycle, with inflation maintaining a mild upward trend. The asset allocation model recommends allocating to stocks and commodities. Based on macro factor state signals and ETF allocation plans year-to-date, stock investment advice overall follows a配置思路 of dividends + broad-based + growth. In April, positive signals triggered a阶段性 overweight in growth. The latest stock signal has turned neutral, reverting to a配置思路 with dividends and broad-based as the core holdings. Regarding bond signals, liquidity factors indicated bond downside risks in the first three months of the year. Since April, bond signals have shifted from risk to neutral, so the current portfolio focus has shifted from short-term financing to long-term bonds. Regarding gold signals, the latest shifted from positive to neutral, reducing the portfolio's allocation比例 to gold.
Regarding mid观配置, the team constructed a sector rotation model based on factor momentum and sub-dimensions like macro, fundamentals, fund flows, and event momentum. The model shows that recently, overall fund positioning,优选 fund positioning, and financial and event momentum modules have strong sector pricing power. That is, marginal changes in fund risk appetite, fundamentals-driven景气度, and short-term momentum factors catalyzed by specific events are relatively dominant. The latest sector recommendations are non-ferrous metals, electronics, consumer services, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals.
Regarding fund portfolio配置, the dynamic multi-factor fund selection model, primarily based on Alpha with crowding as辅助, maintains good performance. The陪伴式 equity-enhanced,陪伴式 300-enhanced, and陪伴式 800-enhanced FOF portfolios have generated returns of 27.38%, 12.07%, and 13.01% year-to-date, respectively.
The summit also featured a roundtable forum. Guests including Sabino Fornies Martinez, Minister-Counsellor of the Delegation of the European Union to China; Margit Molnar, Head of the China Desk at the OECD Economics Department; Zhao Qiang, Head of Multi-Asset at Fidelity Fund Management (China); and Chen Huijia, Investment Officer at the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil), discussed "Global Economic Restructuring and China's New Strategic Opportunities Amid a Century of Changes." The roundtable was moderated by Hu Yuwei, Chief Policy Research Analyst at CSC.
On May 13, CSC's Future Industry and Equity Investment Forum will be held concurrently in Shanghai. The inauguration ceremony for CSC's Future Industry and Policy Research Institute will take place at the forum.
As one of CSC's largest, highest-level, and most influential annual conferences, the 2026 Mid-Year Capital Market Investment Summit invited nearly a hundred experts, scholars, industry specialists, and representatives from enterprises and investment institutions to speak, along with over 600 listed companies for investor交流. The three-day summit featured one main venue and eight parallel sessions covering macro总量, TMT, commodities and new materials, pharmaceuticals, real estate产业链, advanced manufacturing, energy security and HALO assets, and commodities and derivatives, as well as a high-end industry salon on retail破局新生, providing a platform for full exchange among professional investment institutions and global market clients.