On the first trading day following the National Day holiday, major A-share indices underwent morning adjustments. Dividend-paying assets demonstrated overall strength, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China among those reaching new all-time highs, helping the Shanghai Composite Index remain relatively resilient. Influenced by overseas policy expectations regarding optical modules, the AI hardware sector experienced notable pullbacks, dragging down the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. As of the midday break, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,831.84 points, down 0.27%; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.24%; the ChiNext Index dropped 2.13%; and the STAR Market Composite Index declined 3.47%.

Dividend Assets Strengthen, Multiple Bank Stocks Hit Record Highs

In morning trading, the banking sector provided support to the market. As of the midday break, the Shenwan Banking Index rose 1.01% for the half-day session, with 39 out of 42 bank stocks trading higher. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Ping An Bank gained more than 2%, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and Bank of Hangzhou reached new historical highs.

On the news front, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a notice on September 29, clarifying that starting from October 1, 2026, an interest subsidy policy for residential housing purchase loans will be implemented, with a tentative implementation period of one year. The notice specifies that households meeting the following conditions simultaneously will receive interest subsidy support: first, using newly issued commercial personal housing loans to purchase a first home, excluding replacement of existing loans; second, the purchased housing has a floor area not exceeding 120 square meters; third, the purchased housing price does not exceed 1.5 million yuan. According to the notice, the loan amount eligible for interest subsidy can reach up to 1 million yuan, with the fiscal department providing an annualized interest subsidy of 1 percentage point, for a maximum subsidy period of 5 years.

A research report from Zhongtai Securities stated that this mortgage interest subsidy policy constitutes a triple benefit for the banking industry: first, the subsidy is borne by fiscal authorities, protecting bank interest margins. In the past, reducing mortgage costs relied mainly on LPR cuts and rate add-on reductions, with costs primarily borne by commercial banks. Second, this policy covers a wide range of commercial housing with a large subsidy magnitude, which will benefit mortgage lending. Third, this round of targeted mortgage interest subsidies will help improve the overall asset quality of retail business. Zhongtai Securities recommends focusing on two main investment themes in the banking sector: first, city and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, in regions including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian; second, continuing the logic of stable high dividends, with key recommendations for large banks such as the six major state-owned banks.

"Era of Oil Transport" Arrives: COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping Hit Limit Up

In morning trading, the A-share shipping sector strengthened significantly, with the oil transport segment showing particularly prominent gains. Among them, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation hit the daily limit up within less than two minutes of opening, with limit-up buy orders of 427,000 lots as of midday, corresponding to a limit-up order value of nearly 1 billion yuan, bringing the company's latest market capitalization to 123.8 billion yuan. China Merchants Energy Shipping also hit the daily limit up, with a latest market capitalization of 179 billion yuan.

On the news front, global oil transport prices surged during the National Day holiday. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported 7,678 points on October 7, up 40% from 5,499 points on September 30, and up more than 600% compared to the same period last year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) also strengthened slightly during the holiday period.

Huayuan Securities recently released multiple thematic research reports advocating for embracing the "era of oil transport." The institution believes that since July, geopolitical disruptions such as the U.S.-Iran conflict have continued to affect the crude oil industrial chain, and the oil transport prosperity has entered a brand-new phase. Upstream cargo volumes continue to be released, midstream transport efficiency has decreased, and downstream "scrambling for oil and ships" — these three ends are resonating together to support the oil transport prosperity remaining at high levels, or even rising further.

Specifically: On the upstream side, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have strong crude oil export demands, with cargo volumes continuing to be released. The fiscal revenues of Middle Eastern countries are deeply tied to crude oil exports, and restricted crude oil exports will continue to increase fiscal pressure. To restore crude oil export volumes and revenues as soon as possible, on one hand, some oil-producing countries have lowered their crude oil export benchmark prices, using price concessions to restore crude oil sales; on the other hand, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are maintaining crude oil exports through high-risk "dark voyages" through the Strait of Hormuz. According to estimates by commodity data analysis firm Kpler, crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz in September reached 9.36 million barrels per day, recovering to about 60% of pre-conflict levels (15 million barrels per day). On the midstream side, some tankers are turning off AIS for "dark voyages" through the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil transferred via STS outside the strait before being picked up by ocean-going tankers, increasing waiting, connecting, and transfer links, significantly reducing maritime efficiency. After the risk of passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait increased, Saudi crude oil exports to Asia may need to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening voyage distances. Additionally, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has increased the risk of ships being attacked. Dark voyages, detours, and ship attacks are resonating together, significantly reducing oil transport efficiency. On the downstream side, tight refined product supplies are pushing up refinery profitability, strengthening refineries' willingness to "scramble for oil and ships." Affected by geopolitical conflicts, supplies from major refined product exporting regions such as the Middle East and Russia have contracted, and refined product cracking spreads have significantly widened. High cracking spreads are expected to continue benefiting refinery operating conditions. With VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates at high levels, refineries' willingness to "scramble for oil and ships" remains strong. Huayuan Securities concluded that whether it is the "Middle East transport capacity black hole" under the new post-Hormuz normal, or the full recovery of Middle Eastern crude oil exports after the U.S.-Iran conflict ends, both are expected to keep VLCC capacity in a state of "one ship hard to find," and the sustainability of high oil transport prosperity is expected to exceed expectations.