Short Selling AI Leads to Major Losses, Yet Subscription Fees Generate a Staggering $113.7 Million

Stock News
Aug 14

Amid ongoing debates about an AI bubble, Michael Burry's short-selling strategy has suffered significant setbacks. However, his paid newsletter, Cassandra Unchained, has built a robust independent profit moat thanks to explosive subscriber growth.

This contrast in business models is highly dramatic: while he faces immense pressure in the trading market from betting against tech giants, his content product has achieved explosive growth. Cassandra Unchained, launched just 231 days ago, has already surpassed 300,000 subscribers. Based on its pricing model of $379 per year (or $39 per month), its theoretical annual revenue reaches an astonishing $113.7 million. The sheer scale of this figure is staggering—for comparison, investing $1 million in the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year would yield total returns of about $34 million, which is less than a third of Burry's newsletter's theoretical income.

Notably, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the newsletter's user base is highly global and diversified, with subscribers covering all 50 US states and 212 countries, and 52% of subscribers coming from outside the United States. Looking at its growth trajectory, followers numbered around 218,000 in January this year, climbing to nearly 347,000 by July, with a cumulative total of 300,044 subscribers and 346,680 followers. Although the Substack platform's statistics include free readers and do not deduct platform fees, making the $113.7 million figure a theoretical upper limit, the newsletter has rapidly attracted over 60,000 initial subscribers since Burry deregistered his hedge fund with the SEC in November 2025 and restarted his social media presence. It has now become his primary platform for publishing real-time portfolio holdings, valuation analysis, and trading records.

On the long side, Burry has demonstrated a sharp ability to identify specific value targets. In April, he built a position in PayPal Holdings (PYPL.US) at around $49 per share, allocating 3.5% of his portfolio, and cited it as his top pick in the software and payments sector, ahead of Fiserv (FI.US) and Adobe (ADBE.US). He subsequently added to his PayPal position near $45, while also buying Fiserv. That same month, he initiated positions in Adobe, Autodesk (ADSK.US), and Veeva Systems (VEEV.US), reasoning that the panic over AI disruption had pushed software valuations below intrinsic value. Additionally, he reiterated his confidence in Molina Healthcare (MOH), believing market expectations had hit rock bottom, and continued to add to his position based on the logic of normalized earnings over the next few years.

In June, he turned his attention to Lululemon Athletica (LULU), adding to his position multiple times and bluntly stating that 'bad management is a value investor's best friend.' He argued that Wall Street was overly focused on management missteps, tariffs, and slowing growth, while overlooking the company's long-term value.

However, the performance of his short positions tells a starkly different story, incurring substantial paper losses. Burry has continued to expand his short positions in AI and semiconductor stocks. In April, he disclosed holding additional put options on Nvidia (NVDA), including contracts expiring in January 2027 with a strike price of $115, while retaining his previous $100 puts. On June 30, he escalated his strategy by directly shorting Nvidia (NVDA.US), with an entry price of $198.09. In the same update, he also added short positions in Applied Materials (AMAT.US), the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), and Caterpillar (CAT.US). He compared the current semiconductor boom to the internet bubble, pointing to South Korea's announcement of massive spending as the direct trigger for the rally, and declared, 'This is the beginning of the end.'

Earlier this month, he disclosed a direct short position in Micron Technology (MU.US), noting that its deviation from the 200-day moving average exceeded any point since 1984. Regarding Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US), despite partially covering his short since first disclosing it in November last year, he reiterated in June that 'there are no signs of seller capitulation or exhaustion.'

Reality, however, has been working against him. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US) is up 22%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ.US) has risen 31%, while Nvidia is up 29%, AMAT has surged 206%, and Micron (MU.US) has skyrocketed 697%. Shorting these strong stocks means Burry faces massive unrealized losses on the trading front, which underscores the strategic importance of his newsletter revenue—amid investment setbacks, content monetization has become his most reliable source of income this year.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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