In the current intense US-Iran confrontation, the most contentious issue in the energy sector isn't the conflict itself, but rather how much crude oil is still seeping out of the Persian Gulf. The scale of these outflows directly impacts global energy security and could ultimately determine when this war of attrition reaches its conclusion.

Despite Tehran's repeated assertions that it has fully seized control and sealed off the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration remains unconvinced. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright disclosed on social media that even using a seven-day moving average, daily transit volumes have reached 8 million barrels. When factoring in pipeline exports, total energy flowing from the region is approaching the pre-conflict level of 20 million barrels per day.

This discrepancy in data reveals a complex battlefield reality. According to US officials cited by Axios, American forces have established a tightly protected shipping lane off the coast of Oman, ensuring approximately 10 million barrels of crude exit safely each day. David Wech, chief economist at energy intelligence firm Vortexa, noted that last month's devastating US strikes on Iranian radar and maritime surveillance systems have weakened the strait's "blockade line." Currently, numerous tankers are shutting off transponders at night to exploit monitoring blind spots for "shuttle-style" transport, followed by mid-sea transfers. Over the past month, daily flows through the strait have averaged 6 to 7 million barrels, though the seven-day moving average has spiked to 10 million barrels during peak periods.

This crude oil "leakage" serves as a lifeline for global markets, yet it also provides sustained "fuel" for the war of attrition. Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, analyzed in his latest report that this "permeable" blockade has actually reduced the sense of urgency for both warring parties. Since oil hasn't been completely cut off, global energy markets face headwinds but haven't collapsed, while Iran continues to generate revenue through underground channels to sustain its regime. Alamariu warned that this "managed instability" could push the conflict beyond 2026, potentially extending deep into 2027.

Both sides currently exist in a dangerous state of dynamic equilibrium. Trump is attempting to force Tehran to relinquish control of the strait through economic pressure and naval blockades, but constrained by domestic ammunition shortages and political pressures, Washington has shown no willingness to initiate full-scale war. This fragile balance could be shattered at any moment.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think tank, believes Iran's leadership interprets Trump's reliance on economic pressure as a sign of "outward strength but inner weakness." Tehran calculates that a few more powerful counterstrikes could force a war-weary America back to the negotiating table. Additionally, the upcoming US midterm elections represent the biggest variable. Iran may leverage energy prices as a weapon, using oil price volatility to influence election dynamics and weaken Republican support in Congress.

Alamariu pointed out that as long as Brent crude remains below $90 to $100 per barrel, Trump might sustain the current blockade posture. However, once oil prices breach the $105 to $110 warning threshold, soaring inflation would compel the US to adopt more aggressive military action—either forcibly clearing the strait through armed intervention or completely destroying Iran's offensive capabilities.

Notably, US Treasury Secretary Bessent has confirmed that specific actions for "unprecedented economic isolation" against Iran will be formally announced on the 24th. While elaborating on the sanctions measures, Bessent added a telling remark: he doesn't anticipate the need for "large-scale" military operations. Based on signals Bessent previously released, Washington will deploy all enforcement tools to impose secondary sanctions on countries and companies continuing business with Iran, targeting three main categories of economic activity: purchasing Iranian oil, transferring funds to Iran, and ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude at sea.