Rebar
Rebar futures fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday, with the October 2610 contract closing at 3,016 yuan per tonne, up just 1 yuan from the prior session's settlement, a gain of 0.03%. Open interest fell by 34,100 lots. Spot prices held steady with mild upticks, and trading volumes improved. Tangshan Qian'an billet prices rose 10 yuan to 2,950 yuan per tonne, while Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar prices remained flat at 3,030 yuan per tonne. Nationwide construction material transactions reached 96,600 tonnes. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in July 2026 stood at 76.93 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year, with cumulative output for the first seven months at 577.04 million tonnes, a 3.1% decline. Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell 6.7% year-on-year to 26.03 trillion yuan over the same period, with manufacturing investment down 1.7%, infrastructure investment down 3.6%, and real estate development investment down 19.2%. Within real estate, new construction starts dropped 24.0%, sales floor area of new homes fell 11.8%, construction in progress declined 12.7%, and completed floor area dropped 23.2%. The data points to a market where both supply and demand remain weak, with demand-side indicators performing notably worse. Near-term rebar futures are expected to continue their narrow sideways trading pattern.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures for the September 2609 contract traded in a narrow band yesterday, settling at 721.5 yuan per tonne, down 3 yuan from the previous close, a decline of 0.41%. Volume reached 69,100 lots, and open interest decreased by 17,100 lots. Port spot prices slipped slightly, with Rizhao's 60.8% PB fines at 680 yuan, down 2, and Carajas fines at 824 yuan, also down 2. According to Mysteel data, global iron ore shipments totaled 32.588 million tonnes this period, an increase of 576,000 tonnes week-on-week. Australia and Brazil combined shipments rose 1.402 million tonnes to 27.087 million tonnes, with Australian shipments up 492,000 tonnes to 18.465 million tonnes, though shipments to China fell by 999,000 tonnes to 14.506 million tonnes. Brazilian shipments increased 910,000 tonnes to 8.622 million tonnes. Arrivals at China's 47 ports surged by 9.646 million tonnes to 28.56 million tonnes, while the 45-port tally climbed 8.371 million tonnes to 27.069 million tonnes. On the supply side, global shipments posted a modest weekly increase, with Australia and Brazil both recovering, and arrivals rebounding sharply, intensifying near-term supply pressure. On the demand side, July data from the statistics bureau shows pig iron output at 68.35 million tonnes, down 4.5% year-on-year, keeping hot metal production at low levels. Iron ore futures are likely to remain range-bound in the short term.
Coking Coal
Coking coal futures declined yesterday, with the September 2609 contract closing at 1,364 yuan per tonne, down 10 yuan, a loss of 0.73%. Open interest fell by 26,719 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) rose 70 yuan to 1,800 yuan per tonne. At Ganqimaodu port, Mongolian #5 raw coal increased 41 yuan to 1,341 yuan per tonne, and Mongolian #3 washed coal rose 57 yuan to 1,437 yuan per tonne. Some mines in Changzhi are gradually resuming production, but overall safety inspections remain stringent, limiting output expansion. Supply of coking coal stays tight, while coke producers, facing losses, have cut output, though some low-inventory enterprises are initiating modest restocking, leading to a phase of improved spot market sentiment. Sales remain robust even after price hikes, with online auction resources seeing low failure rates and frequent premium transactions. Hot metal output continues its upward trend, and blast furnace operating rates have ticked higher, strengthening steel mills' demand for coke. Although some coke producers remain in loss-making territory, raw coal inventories at most plants are relatively low, prompting restocking demand and faster procurement. However, some remain cautious about high-priced coal grades. Near-term coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile, range-bound manner.
Coke
Coke futures declined yesterday, with the September 2609 contract closing at 1,910 yuan per tonne, down 1.5 yuan, a decrease of 0.08%. Open interest dropped by 4,069 lots. In the spot market, first-tier metallurgical coke at Rizhao port held steady at 1,680 yuan per tonne. Upstream raw coal prices continue to climb, deepening losses for coke producers, which is dampening production enthusiasm. The scope of production cuts in major producing regions is expanding, with some enterprises voluntarily lowering operating rates, leading to a marginal decline in overall coke supply. Steel mills' profit margins remain squeezed, making some cautious about procurement. Most previously overhauled blast furnaces have resumed operations, lifting hot metal output and providing some support for coke demand. Some coke producers have begun holding back sales, while certain mills are increasing purchase volumes. Short-term coke futures are anticipated to remain volatile and range-bound.
Manganese Silicon
On Monday, manganese silicon futures strengthened in choppy trading, with the main contract settling at 5,842 yuan per tonne, up 0.41% from the previous session. Open interest fell by 9,229 lots to 449,700 lots. According to Ganglian data, spot prices for 6517 manganese silicon ranged between 5,650 and 5,850 yuan per tonne across regions, with Tianjin and Jiangsu up 50 yuan from the prior day. The broader ferrous complex showed divergent trends yesterday, while manganese silicon futures inched higher. Fundamentals indicate that manganese ore prices are gradually stabilizing, with port inventories declining slightly week-on-week, though transaction activity remains subdued and market participants are adopting a wait-and-see stance. On the supply-demand front, spot production margins in most major manganese silicon regions have improved, prompting weekly output to bottom out and recover. For the week ending August 14, weekly output reached 160,400 tonnes, up 2.14% week-on-week, with Gansu producers ramping up operating rates significantly. On the demand side, rebar output fell 3.82% week-on-week, while sample steel mills' manganese silicon demand slipped 0.23% to 114,000 tonnes, marking a third consecutive weekly decline and remaining at low absolute levels. Inventory data from 63 sample enterprises showed a minor weekly decline to 458,000 tonnes as of August 14, down 5,000 tonnes from the previous week but up 299,200 tonnes year-on-year, continuously setting multi-year highs. Overall, current fundamentals do not support sustained upside for manganese silicon prices, and short-term futures are likely to remain range-bound.
Ferrosilicon
On Monday, ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5,922 yuan per tonne, down 0.24%. Open interest increased by 4,252 lots to 408,800 lots. Spot prices for 72 ferrosilicon stood at 5,530-5,600 yuan per tonne, roughly flat from the prior day. The ferrous complex diverged yesterday, with ferrosilicon futures drifting slightly lower. Fundamentals show that immediate production costs for ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased by 20-30 yuan per tonne week-on-week, while production margins in most major regions saw modest improvement. Operating rates in Gansu and Qinghai rose slightly week-on-week, with weekly output for the period ending August 14 increasing 1.27% to 111,900 tonnes. On the demand side, sample steel mills' ferrosilicon demand fell 0.72% week-on-week to 18,400 tonnes, remaining at low levels for this time of year over the past five years. Magnesium ingot output declined, with daily production down 3.09% to 3,039 tonnes. Inventory data as of August 14 showed ferrosilicon warrants plus valid delivery notices at 4,559 lots, down 17,217 lots year-on-year. With supply ticking up and demand easing, fundamentals lack fresh catalysts, suggesting ferrosilicon futures will likely remain range-bound in the short term, with attention on the broader ferrous sector's direction.
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