US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are ongoing, while Iranian officials denied any direct dialogue with the US, instead mentioning discussions with Oman regarding maritime governance in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflicting statements from both sides have increased the difficulty of forecasting international energy price trends.

Yesterday, WTI crude oil prices opened with a gap down, and as of now, the market price has fallen below the critical $80 per barrel level. This suggests that market participants find Trump's claim of US-Iran talks more credible. Based on historical patterns, when US-Iran negotiations occur, Iranian officials often initially deny them, but evidence later confirms that talks were indeed underway—such as during the two-week ceasefire negotiations in April and the memorandum of understanding signed in June. This instance is likely no exception.

Figure 1: Vessel Transit Volume at the Strait of Hormuz

On August 3, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz rose to 19, up from 11 the previous day, likely influenced by the reported US-Iran talks. In the medium term, 31 vessels serve as a benchmark for normal transit activity through the Strait. A figure above this level indicates easing tensions between the US and Iran, while a figure below suggests continued strain. Whether the rebound observed on August 3 can be sustained depends entirely on the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations. According to media reports, the discussions focus on navigating the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran nuclear issue—both of which represent core disagreements that are difficult for either side to compromise on. Our outlook remains pessimistic, as reaching consensus appears highly challenging.