Famous economist Zhang Yidong summarized his current market view in eight words: "Space has been reached, but time has not." In terms of price, the main decline in July has been completed, and the correction has touched the bottom zone. However, in terms of time, the "summer headwinds" still have lingering effects. Do not chase highs in August, but patiently wait for contrarian positions.
Hong Kong stocks offer good value, and AI applications are the main theme for the second half of the year. These were the core views shared by Zhang Yidong, a renowned economist, during the "Chief Analyst Connect" program on August 7.
The main impact from grey rhinos and black swans was largely completed in July, but the aftershocks will continue to suppress the pace of the autumn rally. This is not a signal to "throw a wild party right after being discharged from the emergency room." August is not suitable for chasing highs; it is a time for strategic bullishness and selecting new themes tactically.
In the second half of a bull market, one cannot continue to trade old stories using old logic. Capital is smart and will seek out sectors that exceed expectations. In the second half of the year, whether in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or overseas markets, the only new logic is AI applications – the empowerment of all industries by artificial intelligence.
The timing for deploying into Hong Kong stocks has arrived, as they now offer good value, suitable for value investors. Investors can use August, when overseas grey rhinos and black swans may still cause disturbances, to steadily and patiently build contrarian positions. Do not chase highs, and do not fear missing out – the move will not be that fast.
August is precisely the time to position for the autumn rally. The nature of this autumn rally is not a big B-wave rebound in a bear market, but the beginning of the second half of a bull market.
The AI market rally in 2028 is highly likely to face a "catastrophic blow." Even if it does not mark the end of the bull market, it will be a major crisis.