Everbright Securities has released a research report indicating that the intensity and sustainability of the anti-involution efforts in the express delivery industry are expected to surpass market expectations in 2026. This development effectively alleviates competitive pressures within the sector, gradually driving industry pricing levels upward, with profitability anticipated to recover steadily in the coming period. Against the backdrop of slowing industry growth driven by high operating costs in e-commerce and a warmer-than-usual winter, the firm maintains a positive outlook on leading express delivery companies that are optimizing their business structures, building differentiated competitive moats, and rapidly expanding their overseas operations.

July Industry Volume Growth Rises Steadily, E-commerce Express Growth Impressive

1) Industry-wide data: In July 2026, national express delivery companies handled 17.08 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. For the January-July period, total volume reached 117.47 billion parcels, up 4.8% year-on-year. The brokerage believes that online e-commerce consumption remains active, providing a solid foundation for volume growth. This is further supported by the national subsidy policy driving stable consumer market operations and the continued expansion of rural and lower-tier markets, all contributing to the steady upward trend in express delivery volume growth.

2) E-commerce express: Monthly volume growth rates for major players showed no significant change compared to June. Notably, YTO Express saw its growth rate rise from 8.60% in June to 12.08%, Yunda improved from -0.05% to 0.46%, and STO Express climbed from 18.59% to 19.35%.

3) Direct-operated express: SF Holding's volume growth rate recovered from -4.86% to -3.78% year-on-year.

Industry Unit Price Rises Steadily, Anti-Involution Intensity and Sustainability Exceed Expectations

1) Industry-wide: In July 2026, express delivery industry revenue increased 8.1% year-on-year, with revenue per parcel up 3.76% year-on-year. The brokerage identifies two key drivers behind the sustained positive price trend: first, the anti-involution initiatives continue to deliver a strong and lasting boost; second, the intense price competition during the same period last year had already compressed prices to relatively low levels, laying the groundwork for this year's consistent positive growth in unit prices.

2) E-commerce express: In July 2026, revenue per parcel for YTO Express, Yunda, and STO Express changed by -0.96%, +12.04%, and +4.57% year-on-year, respectively. For the January-July period, the figures were -1.12%, +4.27%, and +3.29% year-on-year, respectively.

3) Direct-operated express: SF Holding's July revenue per parcel increased 6.64% year-on-year, while the January-July figure rose 3.24% year-on-year. The company's parcel mix continues to optimize, with unit pricing turning positive year-on-year, and the benefits of its "Gain Enhancement Plan" are gradually becoming evident.

Industry Concentration Eases Slightly, Leading Players' Market Share Remains Stable in Q2 2026

From early 2022 to the end of 2024, price competition remained relatively moderate under policy regulation, leading to a slower pace of share consolidation among top players. 1) Industry-wide: The CR8 concentration ratio for the express delivery industry stood at 87.0 for January-July 2026, up 0.1 year-on-year. Since January 2025, the CR8 has maintained a consistent year-on-year positive growth trajectory, reflecting the continuous market share gains of leading enterprises.

2) E-commerce express: In July 2026, the market shares of YTO Express, Yunda, and STO Express (calculated by parcel volume) were 17.0%, 12.7%, and 15.2%, respectively. Compared to June 2026, these figures changed by +0.66 percentage points, +0.31 percentage points, and +0.45 percentage points, respectively. The market share of leading express companies remained relatively stable month-over-month in July 2026. Notably, STO Express completed the consolidation of Danniao Logistics in November-December 2025. As a leading provider of premium express and reverse logistics services in China, this merger has directly expanded STO Express's business footprint.

3) Direct-operated express: SF Holding achieved a market share of 7.76% in July 2026, representing a slight month-over-month decrease of 0.17 percentage points.

Risk Analysis

Key risks include economic fluctuations, changes in industry policies, irrational competition, and oil price volatility.