Abstract

XP Inc. is scheduled to report on May 18, 2026, Post Market; consensus points to revenue of about 4.89 billion Brazilian reais and adjusted EPS near 2.56 Brazilian reais, while investors will focus on fee-generation trends and margin resilience as the company updates progress across trading and services.

Market Forecast

For the upcoming quarter, market forecasts indicate revenue of 4.89 billion Brazilian reais, up 9.36% year over year, alongside adjusted EPS estimated at 2.56 Brazilian reais, implying 16.84% year-over-year growth; EBIT is projected at 1.58 billion Brazilian reais, reflecting a 3.84% year-over-year increase. Forecasts do not provide explicit gross margin or net margin guidance for this quarter. The company’s main business mix last quarter continued to be anchored by trading-related activities and fee-based services; into this quarter, consensus attention centers on the durability of client activity, distribution fees, and operating leverage in the core platform. The most promising near-term segment is services, which generated 7.97 billion Brazilian reais last quarter; momentum will hinge on client engagement, cross-sell, and pricing stability in distribution and advisory fees.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, XP Inc. delivered 4.95 billion Brazilian reais of revenue (up 11.51% year over year), a 69.43% gross margin, 1.30 billion Brazilian reais in GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company with a 26.95% net margin, and adjusted EPS of 2.56 Brazilian reais (up 14.80% year over year). A notable financial highlight was a top-line outperformance versus consensus, with revenue surpassing expectations by approximately 0.17 billion Brazilian reais, supported by disciplined costs and balanced revenue drivers. By business line, “financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss” contributed 16.24 billion Brazilian reais, services contributed 7.97 billion Brazilian reais, and “financial instruments measured at amortized cost and fair value through other comprehensive income” detracted 5.81 billion Brazilian reais; this composition underscores the combined impact of trading, fees, and mark-to-market or accrual dynamics on reported results.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Trading-driven and fee-linked revenue engine

This quarter’s setup for the core revenue engine is centered on client activity, product mix, and take-rates within trading and distribution. Forecast revenue of 4.89 billion Brazilian reais implies high single-digit growth despite an uneven backdrop, which puts the onus on execution in client engagement and cross-sell. The ability to balance trading-linked revenues with relatively steadier fee lines is likely to be the main determinant of quarter-to-quarter variability, and it also shapes the path for adjusted EPS, currently tracked to rise 16.84% year over year. Margin quality will be scrutinized because revenue mix can shift materially with market conditions. When market volatility is constructive, trading income and transactional fees can lift the top line but also introduce variability; when activity is calmer, the stability of advisory, distribution, and platform fees becomes more important for sustaining operating leverage. Cost discipline is another lever: fixed-cost absorption and technology-driven efficiency gains can support EBIT progression even when headline revenue growth is mid-to-high single digits. The forecast EBIT of 1.58 billion Brazilian reais points to modest operating leverage this quarter. If fee capture holds and credit provisioning remains contained, EBIT should track in line with the top-line trajectory; however, any deviation in client activity or mark-to-market effects could widen the variance. Taken together, the mix of transactional and recurring elements sets a reasonable foundation for the consensus revenue and EPS path implied in current estimates.

Most promising segment: Services and distribution fees

Services, which posted 7.97 billion Brazilian reais last quarter, remain the most reliable building block for near-term earnings as they map closely to client assets, engagement, and the breadth of the product shelf. As clients consolidate investments and seek packaged solutions, the platform’s ability to deepen relationships should help stabilize and potentially lift fee yields. For this quarter, the key watch items inside services are distribution and advisory fees, client migration to higher-value products, and the balance of performance versus volume-linked components. Services also interact favorably with cost efficiency. Incremental services revenue often scales with limited marginal cost, supporting contribution margins and helping to offset any compression in trading spreads or episodic softness in transactional volumes. This dynamic can underpin the 16.84% year-over-year growth outlook for adjusted EPS if services growth remains resilient and operational efficiency remains intact. While explicit segment-level year-over-year rates are not provided, the absolute contribution and recurring nature of services offer a supportive cushion for overall profitability this quarter. Another advantage of services is visibility. Even if market-sensitive line items move around intra-quarter, a solid base of recurring fees can anchor expectations and reduce the amplitude of earnings swings. As a result, consensus appears comfortable projecting revenue growth of 9.36% year over year, with services expected to play a central role in achieving the midpoint of that range.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

The first driver is revenue mix and its implications for margins and earnings translation. A greater tilt toward fee-based services versus trading-linked items would generally support margin stability, while a heavier reliance on transactional activity could raise volatility in both top line and margins. Monitoring adjusted EPS relative to revenue growth will be essential; the current pairing—9.36% revenue growth with 16.84% EPS growth—presumes improved efficiency or favorable mix, and any deviation will likely move the stock. The second driver is balance-sheet sensitivity and mark-to-market effects within “financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss” and instruments measured at amortized cost or through other comprehensive income. Last quarter’s line items highlight how gains and losses can materially shape reported revenue. For this quarter, investors will look for signs that mark-to-market swings are contained and that any offsetting effects from fees can preserve total revenue growth near the forecast range. A third driver is expense control and operating leverage. With EBIT forecast at 1.58 billion Brazilian reais, the market is effectively assuming that the company keeps a tight grip on costs while growing the top line. Delivery on technology efficiency, marketing spend productivity, and staffing alignment would allow EBIT to expand even if revenue growth comes in at the lower end of expectations. Conversely, any cost overshoot would put pressure on the 16.84% EPS growth forecast, likely weighing on sentiment. Beyond the core P&L, client engagement metrics—such as net new assets, active client trends, and product penetration—can influence the quarter’s narrative. Healthy net inflows usually translate into stronger fee pools over time and can help smooth the impact of trading variability. If management signals solid pipeline visibility in distribution and advisory, investors may be willing to underwrite a steadier margin profile through the second half, supporting valuation. Finally, the company’s qualitative commentary and any updated framework for capital allocation will shape how the market extrapolates performance into subsequent quarters. A clear stance on continued investment in product shelf, technology, and client experience, paired with disciplined cost management, would reinforce the logic behind the current EPS trajectory. The market is likely to reward clarity on how the business balances growth investments with near-term profitability.

Analyst Opinions

Based on opinions collected between January 1, 2026 and May 11, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish views is 2:0, indicating a predominantly bullish stance among covering institutions. UBS maintained a Buy rating and increased its price target to $28 on April 2, 2026, citing an improved outlook and sustained execution. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $22 price target in early 2026, pointing to favorable risk-reward as operating metrics trend upward and earnings visibility improves. The prevailing bullish camp emphasizes the combination of top-line growth and margin discipline reflected in the current-quarter forecasts: revenue up 9.36% year over year and adjusted EPS up 16.84%. Analysts argue that a stable fee backbone within services supports recurring revenue, while the trading and distribution mix provides incremental upside when client activity remains healthy. The revenue estimate of 4.89 billion Brazilian reais and EBIT near 1.58 billion Brazilian reais are seen as achievable if the company continues to manage costs and sustains efficiency gains. Proponents also highlight that the services contribution—7.97 billion Brazilian reais last quarter—anchors flexibility in the business model, helping cushion portfolio mark-to-market effects. The forecast EPS trajectory, if met or beaten, could validate the updated price targets and maintain the positive skew in earnings revisions. Under this view, any near-term volatility in transactional line items is manageable as long as fee generation stays resilient and the company maintains operating leverage. In practical terms, the bullish case converges around three points that align with the quarter’s setup. First, fee-driven services are positioned to provide stability and incremental growth, underpinning the 9.36% revenue expansion. Second, cost control and productivity improvements offer a path to EBIT growth and an EPS outturn consistent with the 16.84% year-over-year estimate. Third, the mix of transactional and recurring revenues provides optionality: constructive market conditions can amplify upside through trading-linked items, while the services base helps protect margins if conditions are calmer. This majority view translates into a constructive short-term outlook for the print. Analysts expect management commentary to reinforce confidence in the fee pipeline and operational efficiency, which would justify the current consensus ranges and the recent upward adjustments to price targets. If results align with or exceed the revenue and EPS forecasts, the positive skew in sentiment is likely to persist, supporting shares into the next set of catalysts.