Mining Firms' Q2 Earnings Diverge: Is AI Transformation Real Profit or Speculative Hype?

Stock News
Aug 14

Crypto mining companies are presenting sharply contrasting financial pictures in their second-quarter earnings reports, with the tension between traditional Bitcoin mining operations and emerging AI data center businesses becoming increasingly pronounced. Analysis reveals that while Bitcoin mining machines continue to run at mining sites, the revenue structures of leading firms like MARA Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: MARA) and Core Scientific Inc (NASDAQ: CORZ) have shifted substantially, with AI data center activities moving from a conceptual phase to a core stage confirmed by financial statements.

The Bitcoin mining business is facing a classic dilemma of "rising output, falling revenue," primarily due to the dual pressures of cryptocurrency price volatility and increasing network hash rates. MARA mined 2,422 Bitcoins in the quarter, a slight increase from 2,358 in the same period last year, but its mining revenue fell 27% year-over-year to $174.9 million. The company recorded a net loss of $611.3 million, which included $343 million in unrealized Bitcoin fair value losses.

The situation was more severe for Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: RIOT). It produced 1,587 Bitcoins, up about 11% year-over-year, but mining revenue dropped from $140.9 million to $113.7 million. The value per Bitcoin produced plummeted from $98,800 to $71,667, while the cost per Bitcoin mined (excluding depreciation) rose from $48,992 to $49,912, causing the cost-to-production-value ratio to surge from 49.6% to 69.6%.

In contrast, American Bitcoin Corp (OTC: ABTC) achieved sequential growth through efficiency improvements. It mined 932 Bitcoins (up 14% quarter-over-quarter), generating revenue of approximately $67 million (up 8% sequentially). Its cost per Bitcoin was around $36,500, resulting in a gross margin close to 50%.

However, Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) illustrated another side of expansion. While it mined 2,694 Bitcoins (compared to just 565 in the same period last year) and total revenue increased 47% year-over-year to $228.8 million (with self-mining revenue at $168.4 million), its revenue cost was a high $237.3 million. This led to a gross loss of $8.5 million and a net loss of $92.3 million, indicating that costs for electricity, depreciation, and expansion have overwhelmed current revenue.

Core Scientific and TeraWulf Inc (NASDAQ: WULF), pioneers of the AI transformation, have achieved a qualitative change in their revenue structure, with hosting and HPC (High-Performance Computing) leasing becoming their primary profit sources. Core Scientific reported total revenue of $164.2 million for the second quarter, where high-density hosting revenue surged to $136.7 million, accounting for about 83% of total revenue, while self-mining revenue was only $21.5 million. In contrast, its hosting revenue was a mere $10.6 million in the same period last year, marking a complete shift in business focus from mining to data center hosting.

TeraWulf also experienced a structural change. In its second quarter, out of $44.73 million in revenue, HPC leasing revenue reached $31.93 million, approximately 71% of the total, while digital asset revenue was $12.83 million. Looking back at the full year 2025, mining still accounted for 90% of TeraWulf's total revenue of $168.5 million (about $150 million), but it had already achieved its first $16.9 million in HPC leasing revenue. The company has stated that its capital allocation and operational focus will revolve around HPC data centers, and some existing mining infrastructure is being retrofitted to meet new demands.

Companies in the midst of the transition, such as Riot Platforms, Cipher Mining Inc (NASDAQ: CIFR), and Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ: HUT), demonstrate the complex reality of the transitional phase. Riot reported total second-quarter revenue of $174.2 million, up 14% year-over-year. This included $23.2 million in data center revenue (comprising $4.9 million in leasing revenue and $18.3 million from customer infrastructure build-out), while mining revenue remained at $113.7 million, showing the new business has yet to replace the old core.

Cipher Digital reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $24.84 million, all from Bitcoin mining. Its adjusted EBITDA was negative $30 million, and its net loss stood at $267 million. Its BlackPearl project only began delivering its first capacity and generating leasing revenue in early August, so HPC revenue was not reflected in the second-quarter financial statements.

Hut 8 saw its second-quarter revenue increase to $74.9 million from $41.3 million in the same period last year. Of this, $72.5 million was classified under "computing business," but this category is a mix of ASIC computing, AI cloud, and traditional cloud services, and cannot be directly equated to pure AI revenue. Additionally, Hut 8 reported a net loss of $177.1 million for the quarter, with $138.6 million stemming from unrealized losses on digital assets.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows a common market cognitive bias of misinterpreting the total value of long-term contracts as current revenue. Core Scientific disclosed that its leased customer power capacity is approximately 1.1 GW, corresponding to over $24 billion in potential contract revenue, but its confirmed hosting revenue for the second quarter was only $136.7 million. TeraWulf signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic after the quarter end, with an initial contract value of about $19 billion, yet its second-quarter HPC leasing revenue was only $31.9 million. Riot signed a post-quarter 191 MW data center lease with an initial value of around $9.1 billion, while its second-quarter data center revenue was $23.2 million. These figures reveal a significant time lag between total contract values and recognized current revenue, with project delays, changes in construction costs, and financing arrangements all affecting the timing of revenue recognition.

Furthermore, net profit is significantly impacted by accounting items. Core Scientific reported a net loss of $1.1553 billion in the second quarter, primarily due to changes in the fair value of warrants. Cipher's net loss of $267.5 million included $150.5 million in warrant losses. MARA's losses were influenced by the revaluation of Bitcoin prices. Bitdeer's gross loss reflects that its cost of revenue exceeded its revenue, representing a different nature of loss.

The final phase of industry divergence is apparent, with mining companies evolving into three distinct paths. American Bitcoin continues to follow the traditional path of expanding hash rate, increasing output, and lowering per-unit costs. Core Scientific and TeraWulf already have a significant proportion of hosting or HPC revenue entering current financial statements, achieving a substantive business transformation. Companies like Riot and Cipher are in an intermediate stage, with new projects gradually being delivered.

Keel Infrastructure Inc (NASDAQ: KEEL) (formerly Bitfarms) has taken a more radical step by shutting down its U.S. Bitcoin mining operations. It reported second-quarter revenue of approximately $30.43 million, a 50% year-over-year decline, due to the drop in Bitcoin's price and the closure of its crypto mining operations in the Moses Lake, Texas area in April 2024. Its adjusted EBITDA was negative $23.7 million. While the company has chosen to become an HPC infrastructure developer, the new business has not yet generated a revenue scale sufficient to replace mining, highlighting the pain of the transition period.

The key factors determining the future financial performance of mining companies have shifted from simple hash rate scale to securing stable power, the ability to deliver data center space on time, and the execution capability to convert long-term contracts into current revenue. As the industry evolves from "mining" to "computing infrastructure," investors must be wary of the gap between contract values and current revenue, focusing on a company's actual delivery progress and cost control abilities.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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