Abstract

Freeport-McMoRan will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026 (Pre-MKt); the market currently expects revenue of 6.76 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS of 0.589, with investors watching progress on Indonesia operations and the U.S. leach ramp as key near-term catalysts.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling for the current quarter points to revenue of 6.76 billion US dollars, a year-over-year decline of 6.35%, EBIT of 2.03 billion US dollars with a forecast year-over-year contraction of 14.53%, and adjusted EPS of 0.589, implying 29.88% growth from a year earlier; explicit consensus forecasts for gross margin and net margin are not available. Management’s disclosures and recent updates suggest copper sales will carry the quarter, while the U.S. leach program and stabilization of Indonesian operations shape mix and cost dynamics; within copper, the U.S. leach initiative is the most promising near-term growth lever, and last quarter copper revenue stood at 4.73 billion US dollars as the company targets roughly 40% year-over-year growth in leach volumes in 2026.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Freeport-McMoRan delivered revenue of 6.23 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 41.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of 0.88 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 14.13%, and adjusted EPS of 0.57, with revenue up 8.83% year over year and adjusted EPS up 137.50% year over year, and net profit rising 117% quarter over quarter. A key highlight was broad-based outperformance versus consensus: revenue exceeded expectations and EBIT reached 1.96 billion US dollars against a softer forecast, while adjusted EPS of 0.57 topped estimates by a wide margin. Copper remained the main earnings engine with 4.73 billion US dollars in revenue, supported by gold and molybdenum at 692.00 million US dollars and 613.00 million US dollars respectively, as total company revenue advanced 8.83% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Copper Operations

The company’s copper operations remain the central determinant of second-quarter performance. Consensus expects revenue to ease to 6.76 billion US dollars, down 6.35% year over year, even as adjusted EPS is modeled to increase by 29.88%, a combination that implies expectations for a favorable earnings mix and cost absorption despite slightly lower sales. The principal swing factor this quarter is the operational cadence in Indonesia alongside steady Americas volumes; the company has indicated that its large Indonesian operation is on a measured path toward higher utilization in the second half of the year, suggesting second-quarter throughput may still be in a partial recovery phase. This backdrop helps explain why revenue is forecast to decline modestly while earnings per share are seen higher year over year: market models appear to be embedding a mix that is incrementally more profitable on a per-pound basis than the year-ago period, with EBIT still forecast to contract 14.53% year over year to 2.03 billion US dollars. Operationally, the copper segment’s recent quarterly revenue base of 4.73 billion US dollars underlines its dominant weight in the P&L, and small changes in volumes or realized pricing can tilt the quarter. With the Indonesian ramp expected to meaningfully favor the second half, the second quarter likely reflects a transitional configuration: Americas operations and associated by-products help support margins, while Indonesia progresses toward more normalized output later in the year. The net effect is a quarter where timing factors and mix drive headline revenue and EBIT, whereas per-share earnings benefit from cost normalization and a more supportive contribution from auxiliary streams and operating leverage relative to last year.

U.S. Leach Growth Program

Within the copper portfolio, the U.S. leach initiative is the most visible growth vector for 2026, with management indicating a targeted 40% year-over-year increase in leach copper production this year. Leach output tends to add incremental pounds at comparatively favorable capital intensity and can provide a buffer to quarterly volumes, particularly during periods when other regions are pacing toward higher utilization later in the year. As such, the leach program’s contribution is relevant for the second quarter because it can ease volume pressure while the Indonesian unit advances its recovery trajectory into the second half. From a financial perspective, incremental leach volumes should help stabilize the revenue line and support per-pound economics through improved asset utilization and fixed-cost absorption, contributing to the consensus view that adjusted EPS rises year over year to 0.589 even as sales are expected to contract modestly. In the last reported quarter, copper sales generated 4.73 billion US dollars in revenue, and layering in planned growth from leach operations provides an additional avenue for maintaining momentum in core cash generation. The program also has signaling value for the market: consistent progress on leach volumes adds confidence to full-year guidance constructs and can temper sensitivity to any temporary regional constraints, making the leach ramp a key qualitative and quantitative underpinning for near-term expectations.

Quarter-Specific Stock Price Drivers

Share performance around the print is likely to be most sensitive to updates on the Indonesian operating cadence, the U.S. leach ramp, and capital returns. The company has reached an agreement framework with authorities to extend operating rights in its flagship Indonesian district for the life of resource, which reduces longer-term uncertainty; near-term, the cadence of underground operations and any commentary on trajectory into the third quarter will have an outsized impact on sentiment. The board’s recent decision to maintain the quarterly distribution at 0.15 US dollars per share offers continuity on capital returns and will be monitored in the context of cash generation and the outlook for the second half. Consensus expects EBIT of 2.03 billion US dollars, down 14.53% year over year, a reflection of both timing and mix; communication that clarifies the slope of second-half recovery versus the second quarter could be a key differentiator for the stock reaction. Additionally, the degree to which the company indicates steady progress on targeted U.S. leach growth, and any qualitative commentary on Americas volumes, will influence how investors adjust full-year models. Finally, while revenue is expected at 6.76 billion US dollars, the split across copper, gold and molybdenum and any updates on by-product contributions may alter expectations for operating margins and per-share earnings in the back half of the year.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst sentiment in the year to date skews clearly bullish, with roughly six positive or overweight/outperform opinions for every neutral view, translating to about 85% of recent ratings in the favorable camp. Multiple major institutions have reiterated constructive outlooks and lifted price targets through the spring and early summer. J.P. Morgan has reiterated a Buy rating with the most recent target at 77 US dollars, while prior notes during the period carried targets in the high 60s. Morgan Stanley has maintained a Buy with a 70 US dollars target, and UBS kept a Buy rating while lifting its target to 77 US dollars. BofA Securities moved its target to 80 US dollars and maintained an Overweight stance, and Barclays likewise raised its target to 80 US dollars, also at Overweight. Goldman Sachs has maintained a Buy with targets in the mid-70s region, and BMO Capital has an Outperform with a 78 US dollars target. Jefferies increased its target to 85 US dollars with a Buy, and BNP Paribas and Scotiabank have also raised targets into the upper 70s to low 80s with Outperform/Sector Outperform ratings during the period. The consensus bullish case emphasizes three elements that align with the current-quarter setup. First, the U.S. leach growth program is seen as a tangible, near-term volume boost that is capital efficient, supporting stability in sales and operating cash flow; management’s indication of approximately 40% year-over-year growth in leach copper for 2026 is a focal point for these views. Second, while the Indonesian operation is pacing toward higher utilization in the second half, institutions broadly view the recovery path as increasingly de-risked following the operating-rights extension framework for the life of resource; this reduces long-duration uncertainty and supports valuation durability through the cycle. Third, many of these houses see room for earnings leverage as operational mix improves and unit costs normalize, which helps reconcile why adjusted EPS is modeled to rise 29.88% year over year this quarter even as revenue is expected to be down 6.35%. Across reports, the prevalent tone is constructive on execution and the glide path into the second half of 2026. The companies cited above maintain that incremental leach volumes and a clearer Indonesia roadmap can underpin forecast stability. They also note that the previous quarter’s results exceeded expectations on revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS, which provides a positive baseline heading into July 23, 2026. In this light, the dominant institutional view looks for an in-line to better earnings cadence this quarter on a per-share basis, alongside guarded expectations for topline given timing effects, with the second half framed as the period when the operational ramp can translate into more synchronized revenue and margin expansion.