Hog prices have shown a sustained rebound since the start of August, holding steady above 11 yuan per kilogram for multiple consecutive days. Data from China Pig Network reveals that on August 25, the hog price stood at 11.13 yuan/kg, marking an increase of more than 7.54% compared to the beginning of the month.
"A relative recovery in downstream demand has, to some extent, driven up pork prices," noted Yan Facheng, a hog market analyst at Zhuochuang Information. Compared to July, the easing of high temperatures in August has significantly boosted household fresh meat consumption, with substantial improvements in white-strip pork sales. Additionally, a rise in collective events such as school banquets, project launch ceremonies, and weddings has increased demand for hogs through the group dining channel. Zhuochuang data shows that as of August 17, the national daily hog slaughter volume reached 173,196 head, an increase of 8.27% from the previous month's 159,967 head.
In a recent research report, CICC suggested that hog prices may weaken further in August, potentially widening industry losses and accelerating capacity reduction compared to July. With capacity cuts in the first half and a seasonal pickup in demand during the second half, the firm projects average hog prices of 11 yuan/kg for 2H26 and 11.5-12.5 yuan/kg for 1Q27. Meanwhile, Guoan Securities noted that the low-price region of Sichuan and Chongqing is leading gains, with recent price hikes and stabilizing trends in these areas, possibly reflecting a marked easing of hog supply pressure there.
China Great Wall Securities argues that the current hog price rebound is primarily driven by a bottoming-out recovery. While supply-side factors like high slaughter weights and elevated frozen inventory levels, along with a lack of substantive demand recovery, suggest that a fundamental turnaround signal is not yet clear, narrowing losses and sector valuations at historical lows present opportunities. The firm advises focusing on leading hog enterprises with cost advantages and robust cash flows, as well as positioning for a cyclical reversal as capacity reduction deepens.
Key Hong Kong-listed hog farming companies include DEKON AGR (02419), COFCO Joycome (01610), MUYUAN (02714), and WH Group (00288).