According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin lost the $81,000 mark on October 8, with an intraday low touching around $80,800.
This market performance forms a stark paradox with macro expectations: although traders broadly anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October, the crypto sector has not gained any breathing room, instead accelerating downward under pressure from multiple bearish factors.
Pressure at the macro level stems mainly from the market's repricing of the Fed's policy path. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting released on October 7 delivered hawkish signals, with most participants believing another rate hike before year-end is likely and decisions heavily dependent on incoming economic data. Fed official Christopher Waller further quantified this expectation in an October 8 speech, citing futures data from October 7 to note that market pricing shows an 85% probability of at least one rate hike in December. The longer-term path is similarly steep: the probability of at least two hikes by March 2027 is close to 80%, and the probability of three or more hikes stands at 33%. Waller emphasized that if economic data meets expectations, the tightening process could continue, and even if some meetings are skipped, the path toward tightening through 2027 remains clear.
Meanwhile, traditional asset markets are also intensifying funding cost pressures on risk assets. On October 8, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.305%, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.821%, and Brent crude oil held at a high of $104.87. Persistently elevated oil prices mean inflation risks linger, while high government bond yields directly raise the holding cost of leveraged funds, making it difficult for risk assets to escape the heavy pressure of valuation contraction even if the Fed stays put in October.
The depletion of liquidity and the chain reaction of leveraged liquidations constitute the direct drivers of the price decline. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that a Glassnode report on October 7 noted that the combined daily average of Bitcoin spot trading volume and U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume was about $6.8 billion, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024, indicating a significant cooling in market activity. On the capital flow side, new inflows from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate purchases totaled only $4.9 billion, while capital outflows over the past 30 days reached $12.8 billion, with outflows amounting to less than 40% of total inflows. The previous price rally relied mainly on revaluation of existing capital rather than deep absorption by new buying.
The fragility on the leverage side was fully exposed after prices fell below key ranges. CoinGlass statistics show that total Bitcoin liquidations over the past 24 hours exceeded $1 billion, of which $930 million were long positions. Glassnode had previously warned of dense long liquidation risk in the $81,700 to $83,300 range, and although the $81,000 to $81,250 range had support from a large number of buy orders from Binance, prices ultimately broke below that zone, triggering cascading liquidations and exacerbating volatility.
The key to future movement lies in whether buyers can rebuild a defensive line at critical support levels. If spot trading volume recovers and pushes prices back above the $85,500 support level, Bitcoin will face selling pressure in the $86,500 to $86,750 range. Further above, the largest single annual liquidation zone monitored by Glassnode sits between $87,100 and $95,900, with the largest liquidation scale near $92,000. If prices reach that area, it could trigger short stop-losses and reverse the downtrend. Conversely, if buying power cannot hold, the next liquidation zone is expected near $75,000, which would become an important reference point for the downtrend.
Investors need to closely watch the upcoming macro calendar: the September CPI data to be released on October 14, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, and the meeting on December 8-9. With buying power weak, whether Bitcoin can stabilize before these key nodes will determine its short-term fate.