According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, China's heavy truck market sold about 95,000 units in September this year on a wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles. This marked a recovery from August with a month-on-month increase of about 10%, but a year-on-year decline of about 10% compared with 106,000 units in the same period last year.

In the new energy heavy truck segment, the market moved past the sluggish July and August period, with September sales jumping above 30,000 units. Total sales are expected to exceed 33,000 units, up nearly 40% from 24,000 units a year earlier and more than 20% higher than August.

September heavy truck sales fall 10% year-on-year but recover month-on-month

The heavy truck market, which charged ahead in the first half of the year, entered a slow-season adjustment phase in the second half. July and August in particular saw two consecutive year-on-year declines, a sharp reversal from the momentum in May and June.

In September, China's heavy truck market sold about 95,000 units on a wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles, down about 10% from 106,000 units a year earlier. This was the fourth year-on-year decline of the year and the third consecutive monthly drop.

For the first nine months of the year, cumulative heavy truck sales reached about 926,000 units, up about 13% year-on-year, with the cumulative growth rate continuing to slow.

The month-on-month rebound in September wholesale sales was mainly due to seasonal changes, as transport demand improved compared with the slow July-August period, leading to a modest recovery in vehicle purchase demand. The year-on-year decline, however, stemmed from a mix of unfavorable factors: weak domestic freight demand, falling freight rates, demand pulled forward by policy and regulatory changes, industry destocking, a high comparison base from last year, and rising oil and gas prices.

First, since the second half of the year, the logistics and transport industry has faced greater pressure than in the first half, with highway freight rates sluggish and the profitability of fleet operators and individual owners deteriorating further, dampening demand for new vehicles. In addition, the comparison base from a year earlier was high, driven by the trade-in program for China IV trucks, while the stock of China IV trucks has fallen significantly this year, limiting the stimulus from the trade-in policy. This contributed to the year-on-year decline in September heavy truck sales.

Second, the market throughout the third quarter, including September, was still digesting the pull-forward effect of the AEBS regulation switch for heavy trucks, and the industry continued to destock. Rising prices of traditional fossil fuels, including diesel and LNG, also led to notable year-on-year declines in subsegments such as LNG heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks.

Third, public data shows that from August to September this year, wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel rose four times and fell once. In this environment of more increases than decreases, the retail price of 0# diesel at PetroChina and Sinopec stations in various regions climbed above 8.2 yuan per liter, while LNG prices also rose in September, with gas prices generally above 6 yuan per kilogram across regions, and levels of 6.5, 6.7 and even 6.9 yuan not uncommon. With diesel prices rising continuously and gas prices following suit, many users of medium- and long-haul oil-powered and gas-powered trucks have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are temporarily refraining from buying new vehicles. This is bound to have a direct negative impact on demand for new heavy trucks at the end of the third quarter.

While domestic demand was relatively lackluster, there was good news from overseas. Although the peak September season was less robust than hoped, exports remained strong. In September, driven by export markets in Africa, Latin America and Central Asia, overseas sales of Chinese heavy trucks continued to rise, with export volumes expected to grow about 21% year-on-year.

Gas-powered trucks await a recovery as exports and electric heavy trucks take the lead

In September 2026, with heavy truck sales falling for a third straight month, how did subsegments such as natural gas heavy trucks and new energy heavy trucks perform?

Due to the combination of unfavorable factors described above, domestic retail sales of heavy trucks in September are expected to fall nearly 20% year-on-year, while rising about 19% month-on-month in a recovery. Clearly, the month-on-month recovery was not ideal, and the year-on-year figure remained a double-digit decline, making the peak September season less impressive than usual.

On one hand, retail sales of natural gas heavy trucks in September were still down more than 60% year-on-year. Since June, affected by rising gas prices, the gas-powered heavy truck market entered a downtrend, with May sales roughly flat, and has now fallen for four consecutive months. Sales fell 12% in June to 12,000 units and dropped to the 6,000-unit level in July and August. In September, sales are expected to fall about 63% year-on-year while recovering more than 30% month-on-month, with domestic penetration below 13%. Compared with more than 23,000 units a year earlier, natural gas heavy truck sales in September 2026 were indeed bleak. Whether natural gas heavy trucks can continue to rebound month-on-month in October will depend on the trajectory of oil and gas prices.

On the other hand, retail sales of new energy heavy trucks, mainly battery-electric models, returned above the 30,000-unit mark. In September, the new energy heavy truck market moved past the slow July-August period, when average monthly sales were only 26,000 units, with September sales jumping above 30,000 units. Total sales are expected to exceed 33,000 units, up nearly 40% from 24,000 units a year earlier and more than 20% higher than August.

Objectively speaking, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy heavy truck sales has continued to slow since the second half of the year. While this is partly due to demand pulled forward in the second quarter, it is more attributable to the monthly rise in the comparison base from a year earlier, as new energy heavy truck sales stepped up to the 20,000-unit level starting in September 2025.