China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.57 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% when calculated using constant prices, indicating the economy has withstood pressures to operate within a reasonable range.
The national economy in the first half displayed four key characteristics: stability, resilience, innovation, and quality improvement.
Key Economic Indicators Remain Within Target Range
The 4.7% GDP growth for the first half aligns with the annual economic growth target. Compared to the first half of last year, the GDP increment of 3.6 trillion yuan is the largest for the same period in the past five years.
On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second quarter. Sequentially, second-quarter GDP increased by 0.9%. While the growth rate has moderated, the fundamental stability and trend toward innovation and quality in the economy remain unchanged.
Major international institutions have projected varying degrees of slowdown for major economies in the second quarter. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.0%, while raising its forecast for China's full-year growth by 0.2 percentage points.
Alongside overall stable economic performance, key indicators are also operating within reasonable bounds. In the first half, the increases in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both fell within the reasonable range of 1% to 2%.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services grew 2.7% year-on-year, with service retail sales up 5.3% and goods retail sales up 1.1%. The scale of goods trade reached a new high, foreign exchange reserves remained stable above 3.4 trillion US dollars, and the RMB exchange rate appreciated approximately 3% from the beginning of the year.
The employment situation remained generally stable. The national average surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2% in the first half, unchanged from the same period last year and down 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter. In June, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.0%, and the rate for 31 major cities was also 5.0%, both down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
By the end of the second quarter, the total number of migrant workers reached 192.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.
Resilience Evident Amidst External Challenges
In a complex and volatile external environment, the resilience of China's economic development continues to be evident. Regarding energy security, since March, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have impacted global energy supply. China has focused on both domestic production and diversified imports.
In the first half, domestic production of crude oil, natural gas, and electricity all reached record highs for the same period. Output of industrial crude oil from large-scale enterprises increased 0.9% year-on-year, natural gas output rose 1.6%, and power generation grew 3.5%. Production of major energy products was stable, imports were controllable, and energy supply was correspondingly sufficient, meeting various energy demands for production and daily life.
In terms of market prices, rising energy prices have increased global inflationary pressures, with the IMF raising its global inflation forecast to 4.7%. China's supply security and price stabilization policies have been effective, including the timely implementation of a refined oil price regulation mechanism. In the first half, CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, and core CPI increased 1.2%, indicating a mild inflationary trend.
This helps improve corporate profit expectations, stabilize market confidence, and also promotes employment and income growth for residents, facilitating the smooth circulation of the national economy.
Looking at foreign trade, while global trade growth has slowed, China's total goods import and export volume reached 25.5 trillion yuan in the first half, with exports growing 13.4% and imports surging 22.1%.
Regarding food security, summer grain output exceeded 300 billion jin for the first time this year, further solidifying the foundation for food security and laying a solid groundwork for annual grain production, price stability, and livelihood protection.
New Growth Drivers Contribute Over 40% to Economic Expansion
Preliminary estimates indicate that new growth drivers, represented by high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services, contributed over 40% to the economic growth in the first half, highlighting the distinct trend toward innovation and quality.
In the first half, the value-added of large-scale high-tech manufacturing industries increased 13.3% year-on-year. Industries related to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, maintained high growth rates exceeding 30%.
The global AI technology revolution has spurred explosive demand for high-end computing and memory chips. In the first half, integrated circuit output from large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew 23.1%, reaching a production scale of 279.8 billion units, averaging over 1.5 billion units produced daily.
The daily token call volume has reached hundreds of trillions, achieving an order-of-magnitude leap and demonstrating the vitality and potential of the digital and intelligent economy.
New growth drivers encompass not only high-tech industries, modern services, and digital industries representing new technologies and fields, but also the green transformation, quality improvement, and upgrading of traditional industries through digitalization.
For instance, the development of clean energy drove production growth of nuclear power generating sets and hydro-turbine generating sets by 92.0% and 51.9%, respectively. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 60% for three consecutive months, driving lithium-ion battery production up 39.3%.
Within traditional industries like petrochemicals and chemical fibers, several green sub-sectors have emerged with impressive performance. The biomass fuel processing industry grew 33.0%, and the bio-based materials manufacturing industry increased 21.9%.
Structural Improvements and Rising Incomes
In the first half, China's economy not only achieved steady growth in aggregate terms but also continued to improve in dimensions such as industrial structure, development quality, corporate profitability, and resident income.
Manufacturing is the foundation and strength of the Chinese economy. In the first half of this year, manufacturing's contribution to economic development remained stable with an upward trend. The value-added of manufacturing accounted for 26.2% of GDP, 0.4 percentage points higher than three years ago.
Industrial structure optimization and the continuous promotion of energy-saving technologies, driven by green and low-carbon transformation, have led to a steady decline in energy consumption. Preliminary estimates show that energy consumption per unit of GDP fell 1.9% year-on-year in the first half.
Simultaneously, corporate profits and expectations have improved. From January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises grew 18.8% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth since the beginning of the year. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.3%, and the Services Business Activity Index was 50.4%, up 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month, indicating generally stable market expectations.
Improvements in people's livelihoods have kept pace with economic growth. In the first half, the national per capita disposable income was 22,981 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.2% year-on-year, representing a real growth of 4.2% after adjusting for price factors.