SHFE nickel trend: In today's afternoon session, SHFE nickel prices rose. The main SHFE nickel contract for June 2026 (2606) opened at 147,300 yuan per ton. The intraday high was 148,590 yuan per ton, and the low was 145,610 yuan per ton. It closed at 147,620 yuan per ton, up 570 yuan or 0.39%. Trading volume for the main June 2026 contract reached 290,918 lots. According to statistics: On May 11, the comprehensive 1# nickel price was quoted between 147,600 yuan and 149,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 148,600 yuan per ton, representing an increase of 1,750 yuan from the previous day. The spot 1# nickel price was quoted between 148,100 yuan and 149,300 yuan per ton, averaging 148,700 yuan per ton, also up by 1,750 yuan. In Guangdong, spot nickel was quoted between 149,500 yuan and 149,900 yuan per ton, with an average of 149,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan. Market analysis for May 11, 2026: Multiple global macroeconomic variables are intertwining and resonating, forming the core narrative for short-term pricing in the commodities market. Domestically, inflation data suggests a mild recovery, while infrastructure deployment is boosting demand expectations. Internationally, expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions have kept the US dollar weak and volatile, coupled with a rebound in US stock market risk appetite, collectively lifting sentiment in the metals market. Compounded by increased smelting costs due to international shipping risks and tightening supply policies in major producing countries, these multiple factors have led to a significant rise in nickel prices, making nickel a standout performer in the metals market. The current nickel market exhibits distinct structural differentiation between supply and demand. On the supply side, major producer Indonesia continues to tighten its nickel mining policies, with some mining companies adjusting production schedules due to quota restrictions. Simultaneously, geopolitical conflicts are pushing up raw material costs for smelting. Production cuts and maintenance at hydrometallurgical plants have constrained the supply of intermediates like nickel matte. While overall supply from mines and intermediates is tightening, refined nickel supply remains high, creating a clear structural contradiction. On the demand side, the stainless steel industry maintains stable essential demand, with steel mills increasing production schedules. However, downstream market acceptance of high-priced raw materials is limited, and industry inventories are elevated. Demand in the new energy sector is diverging: essential demand from the upstream of power batteries persists, but demand growth for ternary battery routes is slowing due to pressure from substitute products. The combined effect of supply constraints and demand support is shifting the global nickel market's supply-demand balance from a previous state of looseness to a phase of relative tightness. Spot trading: High prices are suppressing transactions, with purchases primarily driven by essential demand. The spot market shows a pattern of rising prices but stable volume, with premiums for Jinchuan Nickel slightly increased. Downstream steel mills are only replenishing stocks based on essential needs, while new energy companies exhibit a strong wait-and-see attitude and have limited acceptance of the current high prices. Trading for imported nickel is light, as a weaker Shanghai/London ratio discourages arbitrage imports. Tight domestic spot supply continues to support prices at elevated levels. Short-term price trend forecast: From May 11th to 12th, nickel price movements will be dominated by three key variables. First, the release of US April CPI data: if inflation exceeds expectations, reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts could weigh on nickel prices. Second, developments in US-Iran tensions: an escalation could push up smelting raw material and shipping costs, strengthening supply-side support. Third, the implementation progress of Indonesia's nickel ore policies, which directly impacts market supply expectations. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to maintain high-level volatility with significant upside resistance. If inflation data is mild, the US dollar remains weak, and supply tightness provides support, prices may test higher levels. Conversely, they could retreat to test key support levels. (Note: This is original analysis for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)