Following last week's reports that Silver Lake was in discussions to acquire Workday (WDAY.US), analysts at KeyBanc have identified several software companies that could become the next acquisition targets, including HubSpot (HUBS.US), Five9 (FIVN.US), Asana, Netskope, and GitLab (GTLB.US).
In a report released Monday, KeyBanc analysts Jackson Ader, Jason Celino, Devin Au, and Eric Heath further listed potential acquisition candidates that private equity firms are closely monitoring, including Zeta Global, RingCentral, GitLab, Commvault, Varonis Systems, Elastic NV, and Dynatrace.
Shares of Workday surged 18% last Thursday following reports about the acquisition talks. According to the reports, Silver Lake has been in communication with Workday over the past several months regarding a potential deal, and Silver Lake may bring in other investors to help finance the transaction. After this rally, Workday's market capitalization has reached $49 billion. If the deal ultimately materializes, it would rank among the largest acquisitions in software industry history, particularly rare in the private equity space.
The KeyBanc analysts stated in their report: "As companies transition toward consumption-based revenue models, this process can be complex, and moving outside the public markets could prove more efficient and faster." They added: "From a valuation perspective, even with the recent uptick in software industry indices, these mid-cap companies' market values remain far below where they were a year or two ago, so overall transaction sizes can still be kept relatively modest."
Regarding the future trajectory of the software industry, multiple analysts believe this development could have both positive and negative implications. KeyBanc's Celino noted in last Thursday's report: "On the positive side, this deal could establish a pricing floor for other potential acquisition targets that have been waiting for private capital to enter. On the negative side, it could also signal that the impact of artificial intelligence is more severe than previously anticipated, perhaps reflecting difficult business transitions or weakening demand — to the point where a SaaS leader like Workday, along with its founder Aneel, ultimately chooses to 'surrender' to the AI wave."