Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of related shipping lanes, while US-Iran nuclear talks reached a deadlock, delivering a dual shock that sent global energy markets into violent turmoil.

According to CCTV News on the 8th, Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and Iran will block the strait's "illegal lanes," emphasizing that this state will persist until Iran's legitimate demands are met. Prior to this, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the US proposal regarding Iran's nuclear program "contradicts" Iran's demands, and currently "no negotiations" are underway between the two sides.

Buoyed by the above news, international crude oil prices rose sharply. WTI crude climbed 3.0% intraday, breaking through the $91 per barrel mark to reach $91.02 per barrel; Brent crude rose 3.9% in tandem to $104.22 per barrel.

In domestic commodity futures, risk premiums accumulated during the National Day holiday were released in a concentrated manner on the first trading day after the holiday. Fuel oil surged over 18%, LU fuel oil and asphalt rose over 9%, while PTA and crude oil gained nearly 9%.

Nuclear Talks Deadlock Persists, Positions Difficult to Bridge

The lack of substantive progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations is the core backdrop for this round of escalating geopolitical risk.

According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official made clear that US recognition of Iran's right to uranium enrichment is Tehran's "red line," and Iran will "never abandon" this right, though the specific details and scale of enrichment can be discussed afterward. The official also stressed that Washington must first meet Tehran's preconditions before the nuclear issue can be placed on the agenda, characterizing the related proposal recently outlined by US Vice President Vance as America's "ideas and demands" rather than a basis for bilateral negotiation.

The US position is equally firm. According to Xinhua News Agency, Vance said in an exclusive interview with Reuters that Iran must "substantively" reduce its uranium enrichment capacity and take concrete actions rather than merely making verbal commitments to satisfy US requirements. He also said the US remains "open" to reaching an agreement and revealed that Washington is negotiating related issues with Iranian President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi.

On the diplomatic front, according to CCTV, Iranian President Pezeshkian held a phone call with Russian President Putin on local time the 7th, with both sides emphasizing the need to continue strengthening bilateral strategic cooperation. Putin stated that Russia supports diplomatic efforts by relevant countries to ease regional tensions and that Russia stands ready to play a role and provide assistance.

Blockade Escalation: Threats to Shipping Lanes Becoming More Concrete

Developing in parallel with the negotiation deadlock is the further escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CCTV, Naghdi noted in an interview with Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency that the "illegal lanes" about to be closed refer to the southern passage adjacent to the Omani coast, saying these "few lanes" were formed by blasting rocks and are mainly used for smuggling oil and transferring it to tankers. Another Revolutionary Guard advisor, Majid Mirahmadi, previously disclosed that an average of about 10 vessels currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, compared with about 125 per day before the war, indicating that actual traffic volume has shrunk significantly.

Preliminary data from ship-tracking agency Kpler shows that as of September 30, the 7-day moving average of crude oil exports from the region was 18.3 million barrels per day, with 14 days in September seeing export volumes exceed pre-war levels, covering ship-to-ship transfers through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman. Analysts noted that despite the rebound in September exports, Iran's continued attacks on tankers and logistical constraints have not been eliminated, raising questions about whether higher export levels can be sustained.

IMF Managing Director Georgieva also issued a warning on October 7 that as long as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains threatened, high energy prices and high transportation costs could persist until 2027.

Domestic Market: Holiday Premiums Released in Concert, Energy and Chemicals Erupt Across the Board

Geopolitical risk premiums accumulated during the National Day holiday were released in a concentrated manner on October 8, the first trading day after the holiday.

As of the close of commodity futures, methanol, paraxylene, LPG, pure benzene, and styrene main contracts hit their limit-up. Fuel oil rose over 18%, LU fuel oil and asphalt rose over 9%, PTA and crude oil gained nearly 9%, bottle chips and staple fiber rose over 8%, while polypropylene, propylene, and plastics rose over 7%.

A Guoyuan Futures research report analyzed that the strait blockade directly suppresses the export shipment of high-sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East, compounded by surging VLCC freight rates, closing the East-West oil arbitrage window and blocking European arbitrage cargo flows into Asia; at the same time, domestic local refineries, facing increased difficulty in conventional crude procurement, have increased substitute purchases of high-sulfur residual fuel oil, further amplifying the spot supply-demand gap. Guotou Futures pointed out that the rise in the chemicals sector stems partly from high international oil prices pushing up the cost floor, and partly from the low-inventory structure of related products themselves, with coastal methanol inventories at historic lows, multiplying the impact of supply-side disruptions.

In stark contrast to the energy and chemicals sector, precious metals became the deepest declining area that day. Palladium fell over 6%, red dates dropped over 4%, while Shanghai silver, glass, iron ore, and Shanghai tin declined over 3%. Analysts noted that the minutes of the Fed's September meeting showed some policymakers still believe rate hikes are necessary to curb the impact of energy and other price shocks, with hawkish statements pushing up long-end US Treasury yields and weighing on precious metal valuations. A transmission chain of "oil price rise—inflation expectations rebound—US Treasury yields climb—precious metals under pressure" is taking shape.

Market participants generally believe that the subsequent evolution of the Strait of Hormuz situation and policy signals from the Fed's October meeting will be the core variables determining the direction of commodity markets in the fourth quarter.