Goldman Sachs has indicated that if disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue, Brent crude oil could climb above $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter, though this scenario is not the firm's primary forecast.

Analysts including Daan Struyven wrote in a July 20th report that renewed oil price strength is being driven by escalating Middle East tensions and an estimated reduction in Persian Gulf crude flows to below 45% of pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs currently anticipates Brent crude will average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming regional tensions ease. The analysts noted that these forecasts face upside risks, given the shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing threats to Red Sea traffic.

Global energy markets have experienced significant volatility this month. A resurgence of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with threats from Yemen's Houthi forces to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, pushed Brent prices back above $91 per barrel.

The analysts stated that declining global inventories in the second quarter have left the oil market more vulnerable to supply shocks. However, a drop in Chinese imports combined with increased demand elasticity could limit the extent of any anticipated price increases.

Brent crude futures were last quoted at $88.58 per barrel. In late April, during the initial phase of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the price briefly surpassed $126.