The broader market largely maintained a volatile consolidation pattern today. Sectors that had seen significant gains earlier, such as semiconductors, computing power, and optical modules, experienced substantial profit-taking and notable declines.

However, the robotics sector staged a strong rebound. Although there was some volatility and consolidation on Monday, this was primarily a short-term adjustment driven by profit-taking and does not alter the medium-to-long-term upward trajectory for humanoid robotics.

On July 1st, Elon Musk's visit to a California-based factory targeting an annual capacity of 1 million humanoid robots directly boosted market expectations for the debut of Tesla's Optimus V3 robot. The prospect of public sales commencing soon drove the robotics sector's significant rally against the broader market trend.

This production line, previously used for Model S and Model X vehicles, has now been fully converted for humanoid robot production. Furthermore, based on Musk's statements, a new production line in Texas is planned with an estimated annual capacity of 10 million units.

As the physical embodiment of the AI era, the speed at which humanoid robots achieve mass production could be faster than many anticipate.

Recently, Shenzhen-based Ubtech Robotics launched two bionic robot models online, including male and female versions, with prices ranging from 119,800 to 990,000 yuan. Within a week, they received over 13,000 orders, each with a 3,000 yuan deposit.

This indicates that humanoid robots do not need to achieve full intelligence before mass production can begin. If they possess functionalities that meet specific market demands, they can achieve substantial sales. Ubtech has explicitly stated that these bionic robots cannot perform household chores but can provide emotional value.

2026 could be a pivotal year for humanoid robots transitioning from the lab to commercialization, with major robot companies potentially moving towards mass production by 2027. Musk even predicts that the number of robots on Earth could eventually exceed the human population, potentially reaching 10 billion units.

This suggests humanoid robotics could evolve into a trillion-dollar industry. It represents China's fourth major industrial frontier following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles.

There is potential to replicate the success of the new energy vehicle industry, achieving leading advantages from the supply chain to complete systems. In fact, approximately 70% of the component suppliers for Musk's Optimus V3 robot are Chinese companies.

As a long-term investment opportunity in a promising industry, investors can focus on its medium-to-long-term performance. Short-term volatility is unlikely to alter the long-term trend, and the development prospects for humanoid robots remain vast.

From an industrial development perspective, humanoid robots have progressed beyond the initial proof-of-concept (0-1) stage and are gradually entering the scaling (1-10) phase. This phase typically corresponds to favorable performance in capital markets.

China holds significant advantages in humanoid robotics, including a large domestic market demand and a comprehensive supply chain. These component manufacturers supply parts for companies like Tesla, Figure, and domestic robot firms.

Concurrently, the upcoming IPO of Unitree has heightened investor attention towards the humanoid robotics sector. Component suppliers can be viewed as the "pick-and-shovel" plays in this field and stand to benefit substantially.

However, after speculative rallies, some component companies driven by hype may see their gains reversed. Attention should focus on leading component manufacturers likely to secure major orders and deliver on earnings in the future.

Recently, the semiconductor sector experienced significant adjustments, with related stocks declining substantially in U.S., Japanese, and South Korean markets. Last week's drop may be linked to news regarding Meta's AI computing power business.

Meta is reportedly building an AI cloud computing service to commercialize its surplus AI computing capacity, suggesting its own AI development may not be progressing as planned, leading it to sell excess capacity.

This raised market concerns about AI computing power supply-demand dynamics and potential shifts in future capital expenditure rhythms, triggering profit-taking in the AI hardware supply chain after a year of gains.

As foundational enablers of the AI era, computing power, algorithms, and semiconductors have been major beneficiaries and among the top performers over the past year. An analysis earlier last year identified six key investment themes, ranking semiconductors and computing power/algorithm as the top two.

Their performance has validated this view. From a supply-demand perspective, the shortage in semiconductors is expected to persist for the next two years, with overcapacity not yet a concern.

Therefore, from a fundamental standpoint, the upward trend for these two sectors remains intact and has not fundamentally changed. The current pullback can be seen as a correction driven by excessive prior gains and increased profit-taking pressure, not a reversal of the industrial trend.

Investors who reduced positions based on earlier risk warnings may have avoided this significant adjustment. Those who did not have time to adjust need not be overly concerned.

Currently, there are no genuine signs of an industry bubble bursting, although the risks of chasing rallies are indeed increasing. Investors may consider looking for entry points after a sufficient correction.

Strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes recently led to a sharp decline in gold prices. However, market expectations shifted at the start of July.

Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to this shift. Additionally, comments from the new Fed Chair, Walsh, suggesting reduced inflation risks, directly lowered investor expectations for rate hikes.

Furthermore, a surprisingly weak U.S. June non-farm payrolls report rapidly cooled market expectations for a September rate hike, allowing gold prices to stabilize and rebound.

Although Walsh's stance at the June FOMC meeting was perceived as hawkish, he is unlikely to raise rates hastily, as a puncture of the U.S. tech stock bubble could severely impact support for Trump in the November mid-term elections.

With over 50% of U.S. household assets invested in stocks, the tech bubble, while present, is unlikely to burst in the short term. Efforts are being made to sustain it.

Nevertheless, the升温的加息预期 has had a noticeable impact on gold prices. International gold prices had already doubled over the past two years, accumulating substantial gains.

When gold was at $1,900 per ounce, the view was expressed that de-dollarization is a long-term trend, with a first target of $5,000 for gold—a target achieved ahead of schedule in January this year.

Subsequently, prices fell to around $3,800/oz, a significant retreat from the peak near $5,600/oz. Long-term, the trend of de-dollarization and质疑美元信用 persists, supporting a continued long-term upward trend for gold.

Currently, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continue their pattern of a slow, long-term bull market, with numerous investment opportunities, albeit with increasing rotation between sectors.

The previous recommendation was to allocate to technology with one hand and HALO assets with the other, creating a balanced strategy for both growth and defense. Technology drives growth, while HALO assets provide value.

HALO assets refer to heavy-asset, low-volatility industries that are not only irreplaceable in the AI era but are essential materials or infrastructure for it. Sectors like non-ferrous metals, rare earths, wind/solar/storage, and power grid equipment fall into this category and warrant focused attention.

Recently, besides the strong performance in humanoid robotics, other themes such as commercial aerospace and biopharma within the six major themes have also seen significant rebounds.

Innovative drugs, in particular, have experienced a rally. The primary catalyst is a clear policy shift stating that innovative drugs will not be subject to centralized procurement, with prices being protected.

This means innovative drugs under patent protection are exempt from bulk procurement, which applies only to mature generic drugs. This has directly boosted confidence in the innovative drug sector.

Coupled with years of prior declines leaving many innovative drug company valuations at low levels, these factors have jointly driven the recent rally. Additionally, on June 22nd, the National Medical Products Administration released its annual report on new drug clinical trial progress in China.

The total number of clinical trials in China surpassed 5,000 for the first time, reaching a record high, affirming the country's original innovation capability in the clinical trial产业链 from 0 to 1.

In the same month, the Ministry of Commerce, along with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, issued an action plan to stabilize and optimize foreign investment, explicitly supporting further foreign participation in China's high-quality pharmaceutical industry development.

Furthermore, China's 2026 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) adjustment plan released in May includes drugs listed in the 2025 Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory as one of the conditions for 2026 NRDL application, formally establishing a linkage mechanism between commercial insurance and the national reimbursement目录.

This is expected to further推动 the commercialization of innovative drugs. Consequently, top-level support across the entire innovative drug chain—from R&D and approval to payment and出海—continues to solidify, underpinning the sector's recent strength.

A strong rebound in the U.S. S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index also contributed to the rise in innovative drug stocks. Moreover, the integration of AI may lead to technological breakthroughs in brain-computer interfaces, AI healthcare, and AI drug discovery, opening new development opportunities for the innovative drug sector.

Overall, the biopharmaceutical industry also holds considerable future growth potential.

The non-ferrous metals sector is also part of HALO assets. In the second half of the year, this sector may see some valuation repair and rebound.

Looking at the relative PE-TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) of sector indices for copper, aluminum, and gold compared to the broader A-share market, they are all at low levels. From 2026 to 2027, the supply-demand balance for non-ferrous metals is expected to be tight, with industry景气 and price expectations remaining elevated.

Current market pricing for the sector appears pessimistic, limiting downside potential and offering room for valuation recovery. In the short term, it remains pressured by U.S. rate hike expectations and a strong dollar.

Medium-term, prices may revert to being driven by fundamental commodity dynamics. The non-ferrous sector performed notably well last year but has experienced a significant correction this year under the dual pressures of profit-taking and heightened Fed rate hike expectations.

However, following this correction, the second half of the year may present some反弹机会.

In summary, sector rotation in the market is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The scenario seen in the first half, where a single sector dominated, may change, with more sectors taking turns leading.

Different industries will have their moments, but the focus should remain on sectors benefiting from economic transformation. Traditional "old economy" stocks may find it difficult to deliver sustained performance.