Analysis of the latest economic data shows the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June rose 5.5% year-on-year, missing the expected 6.2% increase. The previous figure was revised from 6.5% to 6%. On a month-on-month basis, PPI declined 0.3%, compared to an expectation of no change, with the prior reading adjusted from a 1.1% increase to a 0.6% gain. Core PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below the 5.2% forecast, with the previous figure revised from 4.9% to 4.6%. Core PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.4% rise, with the prior month's gain revised from 0.4% to 0.1%.

From the Federal Reserve, New York Fed President John Williams stated inflation is undoubtedly too high, currently around 4%. There are encouraging signs that inflation may have peaked, with an overall inflation rate projected to fall to approximately 3.25% by year-end, continuing its move towards the 2% target through 2027, and reaching that goal by 2028. He noted that current monetary policy is well-positioned to help reduce inflation, while adding that the full economic impact of artificial intelligence is difficult to predict.

Futures Market and Trading Volume

On July 15, 2026, the most active Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 890.00 yuan per gram and closed at 880.10 yuan per gram, marking a change of -0.02% from the previous session's close. Daily trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the previous night session, the contract opened at 887.80 yuan per gram and closed at 887.42 yuan per gram, rising 0.72% from the prior afternoon session's close.

On the same day, the most active Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 14,430.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 14,241.00 yuan per kilogram, a change of 0.17% from the previous session's close. Daily trading volume reached 454,923 contracts, with open interest at 185,018 contracts. The prior night session saw the contract open at 14,330 yuan per kilogram and close at 14,184 yuan per kilogram, declining 0.40% from the previous afternoon session's close.

US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring

On July 15, 2026, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.58%, a change of -0.04% from the prior day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.40%, a change of 0.04% from the preceding session.

Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes

For the Au2608 contract on July 15, 2026, long positions decreased by 1,752 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 1,747 contracts. Total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the last trading day was 271,708 contracts, a change of -7.82% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions decreased by 4,246 contracts, while short positions decreased by 270 contracts. Total trading volume for silver contracts on the last trading day was 970,751 contracts, a change of 1.89% from the previous session.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking

For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 875.95 tonnes, down 2.59 tonnes from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,709.59 tonnes, unchanged from the prior session.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking

Regarding futures-spot basis, on July 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -4.19 yuan per gram, while the domestic premium for silver was -285.55 yuan per kilogram. The gold-silver ratio based on the main Shanghai Futures Exchange contracts was approximately 61.80, a change of -0.19% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 69.38, a change of -0.48% from the prior trading day.

Fundamental Data

Monitoring of the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market for the previous trading day (July 15, 2026) shows gold trading volume was 38,904 kilograms, a change of -4.88% from the day before. Silver trading volume was 443,888 kilograms, a change of 18.74% from the prior session. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 37,380 kilograms.

Market Outlook and Strategy

Gold: Cautiously Bullish

With the latest PPI data falling short of expectations, precious metals may continue to realize a rebound. The trading range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract Au2608 is projected to be between 880 yuan per gram and 910 yuan per gram.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish

The current rationale for silver is similar to that for gold, with silver prices also expected to maintain a rangebound pattern. The projected trading range for the Ag2608 contract is between 13,900 yuan per kilogram and 15,000 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage: Hold Off

Options: Hold Off

Key Risk Factors

Overseas liquidity risks and the continued exit of speculative positions from the market.