A covert "shuttle" operation by Middle Eastern oil producers is moving vast quantities of crude out of the Persian Gulf, acting as a key brake on global prices and easing fears of runaway energy-driven inflation, even as the Iran conflict continues. Insiders familiar with the logistics reveal that these transfer runs, which involve moving crude undetected through the Strait of Hormuz to tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, are proceeding at full capacity despite recent vessel attacks.

For global markets, which had braced for a severe supply shock when the war with Iran erupted, this clandestine navigation of the world's most critical energy chokepoint has become a vital lifeline. However, sources indicate that conditions are far from normal for regional producers. While under some military protection, vessels continue to face persistent hostile attacks. This shuttle activity has been ongoing for months, but tracking the true volume of oil moved by these "dark" ships remains a challenge for traders and analysts, as the vessels protect themselves by rarely broadcasting their positions.

Anonymous insiders state that the actual volume being moved is higher than the market's estimate of 4 million barrels per day, though they declined to specify by how much. Before the Iran war began, roughly 20 million barrels a day, or about one-fifth of the global supply, transited the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that 9 million barrels a day had crossed the strait in the previous seven days, a figure that surprised many traders. This volume sits at the high end of market forecasts and represents nearly half of the pre-war flow.

Traders and analysts say this stubbornly persistent transport is a key reason Brent crude futures have traded largely between $80 and $90 a barrel for most of August. This is far below the worst-case scenarios feared at the conflict's onset, when some market participants had prepared for oil prices to spike to $150. The combination of secret shuttle runs, alternative pipeline routes, releases from strategic reserves, and falling global demand has tempered the war's economic impact.

UAE's crucial role

Oil giant Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) stated, "Despite our vessels being repeatedly targeted, we remain determined to continue our duty of safely delivering energy to global markets and meeting our customers' commitments as much as possible. Like other energy companies in the region, we continue to bear the direct consequences of unprovoked attacks on our people, vessels, and facilities, which place employees, contractors, and seafarers at increasing risk and disrupt vital energy flows." Vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa, along with shipping records, show that beyond the UAE, crude from Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait is also being shuttled through the Strait of Hormuz.

This shuttle trade is particularly visible off the coast of Oman, just outside the strait. Satellite imagery from the European Space Agency's Sentinel 1 shows roughly 150 vessels, from giant tankers to bulk commodity carriers, floating in that area, compared to only about 40 last January. Many of these ships are waiting to transfer cargoes from shuttle vessels that have turned off their location transponders as they sail in and out of the Hormuz strait. Sources familiar with UAE operations report little sign of a slowdown, even after the nation recently reported more attacks on its ships by Iran. ADNOC has sold approximately 135 million barrels of crude to global buyers and launched a new sales round last week.

Persistent risks and hidden costs

Despite the flow of oil, exporting in wartime is proving extremely difficult. Individuals with knowledge of Strait of Hormuz transits say that the number of incidents involving vessels is higher than publicly acknowledged, encompassing both attacks on merchant ships and defensive actions by Western forces against craft harassing freighters attempting to navigate the waterway. These incidents serve as a stark reminder that maintaining low global energy prices comes with significant risks, including the deaths of multiple seafarers and a rising number of oil spills in the region. Last week, satellite images revealed a slick in the Gulf of Oman, though its origin could not be determined, highlighting the secretive nature of the transit.

ADNOC reported that 23 of its vessels have been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, resulting in one crew member killed and 20 injured. The company added that the impact is felt by businesses and households worldwide. "An attack on the delivery infrastructure that keeps energy flowing is not just an attack on one company. The instability in the Strait of Hormuz is causing deep harm to a population far wider than those directly affected in the region," the company stated. Asian buyers confirm that the attacks occasionally cause shipment delays, which, though often brief, add to market uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia's emerging activity

A major producer not yet heavily engaged in the shuttle trade is Saudi Arabia. However, with its alternative Red Sea route threatened by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, there are signs of renewed activity at its ports inside the Persian Gulf. Last week, two vessels were seen loading at Saudi Arabia's massive export hub, Ras Tanura. Meanwhile, the kingdom's national tanker company, Bahri, has been steadily positioning vessels off the coast of Oman, the key transshipment point for the shuttle trade. A total of 16 supertankers are currently anchored there, with three more expected in the coming days. These vessels have a combined capacity of 38 million barrels of crude.

Elsewhere, a handful of companies have recently been buying Iraqi crude for export through the Strait of Hormuz, providing an outlet for one of the Gulf nations finding it hardest to move its oil during the war. Data from Kpler and Vortexa also shows that cargoes from Qatar and Kuwait have been leaving the strait via shuttle arrangements. Insurers report receiving continuous business applications from multiple Gulf producers. Pankaj Khanna, CEO of Heidmar Maritime Holdings, commented, "It's a quiet trade. It's the only option right now because not all vessel owners are willing to take the risk."